CNN
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For almost 40 years, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has navigated internal disputes, economic crisis and war, but the unprecedented strikes by Israel and the US over Iran mark his biggest challenge.
His next decision would mean a lot to Iran and the rest of the Middle East. But this is the cost of his choice. It is a major test for 86-year-olds in health decline without a designated successor.
The extent of damage caused to the Khamenei regime remains uncertain, but it was struck by the center of its power. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the main military force supporting the ideals of the Islamic Revolution, suffered the loss of a column of experienced commanders. Iran’s nuclear facility, where nearby weapons grade uranium was enriched, has been severely damaged, and leading scientists pushing for progress in the programme have been assassinated.
Armed proxy groups in Khamenei’s region have already been severely weakened by Israeli attacks, with billions of dollars lost in his administration’s nuclear program in 12 days.
As Israeli strikes were pervasive, Khamenei gave a speech during the conflict from a private location, expressing lingering concerns about his safety. He was not the hundreds of thousands attending national funerals for military commanders and nuclear scientists who were assassinated Saturday.
And it was a few days after the ceasefire was implemented before the Supreme Leader gave birth to a rebel. Video message to Iranian people.
“This President (Donald Trump) revealed the truth. He made it clear that Americans are only satisfied with Iran’s complete surrender,” Khamenei said. He also declared victory over Israel and the United States, as expected. This is the message that sparked a dull response from Trump.
“Look, you are a great man of faith, a man very respected in his country,” Trump said. “You have to tell the truth. You’ve been beaten to hell.”
Aging Khamenei, a witty secret leader who used political and economic manipulation to ensure the survival of his regime, controls erosion and strict states. The uncertainty surrounding his succession, the state of his nuclear program, and the strength of his proxy groups, he faces a key choice: open in ways that can restructure the same regime or suppress power.
For decades, Khamenei has faced the relentless challenges of the savages that together shaped his administration.
After inheriting an isolated country destroyed and destroyed by the war with Iraq in 1989, he faced the difficult task of reviving a broken economy and society. He had to manage the opposition and competition within Iran’s complicated administrative community. In other words, they confronted unbearable international economic pressures, maintaining the revolutionary ideals of sovereignty and independence.
He enforced severe internal oppression amid waning public support, particularly in weeks of women’s rights protests at the hands of “moral police,” and in 2009, when mass protests erupted on suspicion of election fraud.
The exiled Iranian group established a 24/7 media broadcasting anti-regulated propaganda and separatist groups, leaking the secrets of his nuclear program. Israeli spy agencies appear to have penetrated Iran deeply, assassinated nuclear scientists and launched a cyberattack on Iran’s infrastructure.
But once — ever — he attacked the world’s strongest army on his country, and the US president had spoken about his possible assassination in a social media post.
Israel and the United States attacked Iran, which had long been waiting for and widely suspected since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which was attacked in the 1980s, following the Iraqi invasion under Saddam Hussein.
Khamenei’s main external leverage points – advanced nuclear programs and a network of proxy groups surrounding Israel – are currently paralyzed.
Internally, Khamenei remains Iran’s most powerful figure, supported by a loyal support base and institution built to protect his authority. However, as Iran has been upset from recent attacks and hidden Khamenei, aging leaders may intensify their oppression to maintain the conservative ideals of the revolution.
“Iranian doctrine was built around the projection of power in the region and deterrence of the enemy, but the former declined, while the latter opposed minimal goals – survival.
Amidst the chaos, the Iranian regime must now address these internal and external issues, Vaez said this “needs a more fundamental rethink than Khamenei entertains.”
“Even if we become quiet on the military front, we must be considered within the system and have quite a few fingertips behind the scenes. Intellectual failure is comprehensive, the military’s upper echelons have been wiped out, and Iran must contest the deep challenges ahead of the war.
Faced with unprecedented pressure and reduced options, Khamenei, who previously issued fatwa, which fakes nuclear weapons development, may consider weaponizing Iran’s nuclear program as its best form of protection. Last week, Parliament expressed its intention to halt cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.
The development of nuclear bombs will be a major reversal in Iran’s public stance. Israel says the attack is intended to stop Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, but Tehran has always argued that the programme is peaceful.
When asked if he would consider bombing Iran again if intelligence reports conclude that Tehran could enrich uranium at the level, Trump said: “Indeed, definitely, absolutely.”
However, Trump argued that “Iran thinks the “last thing” is “a nuclear weapon.”
One possibility of Khamenei is to seize an opportunity to capitalize on Iran’s rare unity against Israeli strikes, for example, by introducing further reforms. In his speech, he reflected the moment as one of collective strength.
“By God’s grace, nearly 90 million nations were united in voices and purposes, standing shoulder to shoulder, without divisions of demands or intentions,” he said.
However, as Vaez argued, Khamenei may have a limited appetite for fundamental political and economic rethinks. That conservatism may also eliminate alternatives – embracing warming neighbourhoods and pursuing a new agreement with Washington.
Iran’s Arab neighbors historically saw Iran’s expansionist policy As a threat, he has recently chosen to repair his relationship with Tehran and expressed his desire to cooperate in avoiding costly conflicts.
But Khamenei’s distrust of the West was deepened by Trump’s unilateral abolition of the nuclear treaty in his first term, and this month, Israel’s unprecedented strike – two days before Iranian delegation holds new talks with the US, leaving uncertainty about how it will approach future negotiations.
In a fierce attempt to bring Tehran back to the negotiation table, the Trump administration has discussed the possibility that Iran will support $30 billion in access to create a nuclear program for civilians, ease sanctions and release billions of dollars with Iran’s limited funds, CNN reported this week that four sources are recognized. Trump denied the report.
However, if Trump wants to sign a deal with Iran, his unorthodox official message to Khamenei, including implicitly threatening his assassination, could ultimately derail the meeting, Iranian officials said.
“If President Trump wants to get a deal, he must put aside his rude and unacceptable tone of Iran’s supreme leader Grand Ayatollah Khamenei and stop hurting millions of heartfelt followers.”
In his latest speech, the Supreme Leader predicted an image of indomitable resilience and signaled the US and Israel (both nuclear forces) to dismantle the republic, which has been damaged by military action alone, but still reinforced. However, with an unclear inheritance of his rule and the loss of his strong leverage, he is now facing the challenge of ensuring the survival of the Islamic Republic he inherited.
