Experts say no modern president can exert as much influence over a party as Donald Trump, but it could be costly for the party in the 2026 midterm elections.
President Trump isn’t worried that Iran will hurt Republicans’ midterm chances
President Donald Trump has said he is not worried about the 2026 midterm elections because the fallout from the Iran war could hurt the Republican Party’s chances.
With five months left until the 2026 election, President Donald Trump has a near-perfect record when it comes to endorsing winning Republican primary candidates.
Only a few of his favorite candidates have lost this year, showing that even as President Trump’s national popularity has waned, he remains a dominant figure in the fractured “Make America Great Again” movement.
A review of President Trump’s candidacies by Ballotpedia, a digital encyclopedia of U.S. politics and elections, shows that out of 312 primary supporters, the president enjoys a 98% win rate in Republican contests across Congress, statehouses and statewide races.
The president touted his record in response to the recent overwhelming victories of New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani’s favored candidates in three Democratic primaries for Congress held on June 23. On the same day, more than a dozen Trump-backed candidates won Republican primaries in multiple states.
That includes first-time candidates such as upstate New York sticker company CEO and former boxer Anthony Constantino, who defeated the state’s leading Republican candidate, Rep. Robert Smullen, by about 20 points in the seat previously held by Rep. Elise Stefanik.
“Congratulations, Mayor,” President Trump said in a social media post to Mamdani on June 24. “Last night, I helped elect a great American Patriot who went 16-0 and the media said nothing.”
But a closer look reveals a more complicated picture. In six of those 16 elections, Trump supported incumbents without a primary challenger, such as moderate Rep. Mike Lawler of New York, who ran as an independent. The president also appears to have endorsed both candidates in the South Carolina gubernatorial runoff, counting that runoff as two wins.
But Mr. Trump’s choice reshaped the Republican Party by destroying the careers of veteran conservative lawmakers.
Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, and Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky were suddenly forced out of office this year after disagreements with President Trump at some point. He also used the power of his extensive network to defeat five of the seven Indiana state legislators who opposed him in rewriting the state’s congressional map.
Political observers say Mr. Trump is wielding influence in a way rarely done by previous presidents who typically avoided intraparty political battles.
As Democrats faced a resurgent Republican Party seeking to take back Congress in 2022, former President Joe Biden endorsed only five congressional races during that cycle, including the endorsement of then-Republican House members. Oregon moderate Kurt Schrader faces progressive challenger. His opponent, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, won the primary but lost to Republican candidate Lori Chavez-Delemer in the general election that fall.
“No modern president has matched Donald Trump’s influence within his party in terms of his willingness to advocate and his success in terms of advocacy,” said Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University.
“It’s very difficult for someone to win when President Trump supports his opponent,” he added. “It’s not impossible, but the candidates he supports win the overwhelming majority of races, and that really shapes Republican politics all the way down to the Congressional level and even the statehouse level.”
Races big and small hit the president’s radar
It’s not surprising that Trump is interested in Congressional and gubernatorial races, but what’s even more unusual is that he’s also interested in down-ballot races.
In Texas, for example, the president not only endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton over Cornyn, but also named former state Sen. Don Huffines as a candidate for state comptroller in a February endorsement, calling him a “MAGA warrior” and someone who “has been with me from the beginning.”
Despite being a longtime rival to Texas Governor Greg Abbott, Huffines easily won the Republican primary with 57% of the vote. Mr. Huffines defeated Mr. Abbott’s longtime ally Kelly Hancock, whom the governor appointed to the seat in July.
The White House did not respond to repeated requests for comment.
President Trump takes various steps to maintain kingmaker status
This time around, a change in the way Trump dominates the primaries means his preferences are becoming known much earlier than they were during his first administration.
According to a National Public Radio analysis, Trump’s average approval rating in the 2018 presidential primary was seven weeks before the midterm primary. This year, that stamp of approval arrives about seven months before the race, many with Republicans in safe, unopposed seats.
In some elections, the president even used executive power to influence the outcome. In May, President Trump endorsed Representative Andy Barr in the Kentucky Republican Senate primary, asked one of Barr’s opponents, businessman Nate Morris, to withdraw from the race and promised Morris a role in his administration as an ambassador.
Political observers say the tactics have effectively cleared the ground and strengthened Mr. Trump’s standing among conservatives. But in situations, such as the South Carolina Republican gubernatorial runoff on June 23, when Republican officials and voters appeared to go against their original choice, Trump avoided losses by endorsing both candidates at the last minute.
Conservative allies in the administration say Trump is unique among presidents in how closely he keeps tabs on the MAGA base.
“Trump is setting the agenda for the Republican Party at this point, and I think that’s an agenda that the vast majority of Republican voters agree with,” said Chip Wyatt, a former aide to Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and now a lobbyist for Heritage Action, the political advocacy arm of the conservative Heritage Foundation.
Loyalty testing is costly in Washington and elsewhere
The biggest headline-grabbing feature of this year’s Republican primary is that President Trump has imposed a clear loyalty test on Republican candidates.
That means there will be fewer mavericks to resist Trump in the next Congress, but it also results in more resistance from the lame ducks Trump has ousted.
During a private meeting with Senate Republicans on June 24, President Trump reportedly exchanged insults with Cassidy over the Iran war.
“The original objectives have not been achieved,” Cassidy told reporters after the meeting. She added that Trump “didn’t really care about my comments” and then “raised his voice.”
Experts say that while Mr. Trump’s success in swaying the primaries may increase loyalty among his base, it will also force Republican candidates facing tough general elections to become more attached to the president and his record.
A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll released June 18 found that 80% of Republicans support President Trump’s efforts, compared to just 5% of Democrats and 28% of independents.
Similarly, an American Research Group poll conducted June 16-20 found that while 67% of Republicans approve of the president’s handling of his job, only 30% of Americans overall have the same opinion.
Among independent voters, just 25% approve of how Trump is handling his job as president, while 69% disapprove, the poll found.
The White House rejected the survey results, telling USA TODAY that the “final poll” would be in 2024.
“Often we see members of the president’s party begin to distance themselves when competing in purple districts and battleground states, simply because they know the president is more of a liability than an asset,” Jones said.
“In the current climate, Mr. Trump’s near-absolute loyalty claims make it extremely difficult for Republicans to distance themselves from the president in a highly competitive race where he is under water in districts and states.
“There’s no real way for Republicans to distance themselves from him, so they need to use him to at least motivate their supporters to vote in elections where he’s not on the ballot,” Jones said.
Perhaps with that base mobilization strategy in mind, the Republican National Committee plans to hold its first-ever midterm convention this summer.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who supported President Trump to defeat Cornyn and is currently in the spotlight in the Senate race against Democrat James Talarico, reportedly said at a TV Hall event on June 15 that the interim RNC will be held in Dallas and that President Trump will speak.
Democrats see Trump’s tightening grip on the Republican Party as an opportunity to unite their opponents with an increasingly unpopular president.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, said in an interview with USA TODAY, “All of the pro-Trump candidates are pledging loyalty to the president, but he’s made life harder for American families and people are worse off because of Donald Trump’s leadership.”
As the midterm elections come into focus, Trump’s supporters and opponents are battling over how much of a negative impact his blessings will have on the minds of voters in the general election.
Polls show that non-MAGA Republicans are willing to cross party lines for Democrats in key races this year, including the Ohio Senate runoffs. A Fox News poll released June 3 found that 31% of voters who identify as not MAGA Republicans said they would support former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown over Republican incumbent Jon Husted.
Among the states Democrats are looking to flip this fall is Nevada, where Gov. Joe Lombardo, whom President Trump endorsed last year, is in a tough battle with Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, whose campaign has relentlessly linked the incumbent to the president in multiple attack ads.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report calls the 2024 election a “very close” race in a battleground state that President Trump won by about 3 percentage points. Lombardo said in a television interview that the public “might have to feel a little bit of pain” over the administration’s trade war, adding to the negative reaction to the president’s comments on inflation and rising costs.
“The reality is that Trump and Lombardo are like peas,” Ford said in an interview with USA TODAY.
“Nevadaans know this is a race between those who origami and those who fight, those who lie down or stand up for Trump. And that’s me.”
High-profile exception
While Trump and his allies have taken pride in his ability to support the campaign, there have also been notable losses that highlight the growing friction around him within the MAGA movement.
Republican voters in the Iowa gubernatorial primary have endorsed Zach Rahn in the five-person primary over Trump-backed U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra.
In that election, the president made a last-minute re-entry for the three-term congressman, endorsing Feenstra against Rahn, who won by less than one percentage point, four days before the election. Mr. Rahn focused on promoting an “Iowa First” agenda that was heavily aligned with Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert Kennedy Jr.’s “Make America Healthy Again” movement.
Trump also fell short in Georgia’s gubernatorial primary this year, with Lieutenant Governor Bert Jones losing to Rick Jackson, a wealthy health care CEO who poured millions of dollars into the Georgia gubernatorial primary.
But even after Georgia voters favored other candidates, Trump claimed credit for the result.
In a social media post on June 17, the president said, “Congratulations to Rick Jackson, who ran a successful campaign and won under the banner of being Trump.” “He will be your next Governor of Georgia. I can’t wait!”
Congressional Republicans and other candidates must show voters that they are taking every opportunity to carry out the policies they were elected to carry out, Wyatt, the heritage lobbyist, told USA TODAY.
“One thing that’s clear from President Trump’s administration this term is that he’s strongly encouraged Congressional Republicans to stay out of the campaign as much as possible,” he said.
Contributors: Fernando Cervantes Jr., Mark Robison, Lucas Allbach
