CNN
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A recent evening at Kyiv, 4-year-old Olexander Reshetnik gave a simple suggestion to his parents.
The family lives on the 18th floor of a high-rise building, and entering an underground garage that doubles as a bomb shelter during a Russian attack is an unpleasant experience. As air attacks become more common, it makes sense for Olexander to simply stay there.
Even at his younger age he knew that the Russians were likely to attack again.
His mother, Kreistina Leshchetnik, said the family has become accustomed to seeing drones being shot in the sky in the Ukrainian capital. On the day that passed, there’s one or two, maybe three, but things have changed.
“Lately they’ve been flying like a pack that doesn’t stop for three or four hours. They explode just outside the window,” she told CNN.
Russia has intensified its air attacks on Ukraine in recent weeks, launching up to 479 drones and missiles in one night. These attacks are bigger and less frequent. It also runs more intensively and makes combat much more difficult. This is because they fly at a higher altitude, which is out of reach of machine guns.
According to CNN tally, the rise in the number of drones Russia is deploying to its neighbors is surprising.
Russia successfully expanded domestic production of its most frequently used drones (Iran-designed Sharp) last fall, and now it is stirring hundreds of killing machines every day.
Christina Harward, a Russian analyst at the War Institute, said current estimates suggest that Moscow can now produce around 2,700 Shahed drones and around 2,500 decoid drones per month.
“These numbers allow Russia to launch 300 or 400 drones more frequently in just one night,” she told CNN.
The fact that some of the drones are decoys makes little difference to Ukraine’s defenses, as Moscow adapted them in a way that made them so difficult to distinguish them from the real thing.
“So one of the Ukrainian troops is spending time trying to identify decoys or shooting down valuable resources. Either way, this will help Russian missiles and Shaheds (with their big payload) (they have the opportunity to reach their target,” Harward said.
The rise in the number of drones released every night is a dominant Ukrainian air defense, especially as Russia began to zero in a handful of places at a time.
On Monday night, it targeted Odesa, the capital of Ukraine and Black Sea Port. The next night it was Kalkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine.
“Instead of targeting a bit here and there, they can concentrate their strikes and achieve both kinesily and psychological effects,” Olexi Melnik, a former Ukrainian Ministry of Defense official who is now co-director of the diplomatic relations and international security program at the Razkov Centre in Kiev, told CNN.
Russia claims it is not targeting civilians, but evidence to the contrary continues to rise. At least 154 Ukrainian civilians, including children, have been killed by artillery across the country in the past four weeks, Russian missile attacks. Another 900 civilians were injured.
The deadly attack is designed to undermine Ukraine’s morale, and while Moscow is far from “victory,” it is designed to create the illusion that Russia has the advantage in war.
Ukraine’s frontline has not been so important since the Ukrainian military released the city of the southern city of Carson in November 2023.
Russia has since been able to seize only about 5,000 square kilometers (1,900 square miles) of Ukrainian territory. Russian troops have made progress in some parts of eastern and northern Ukraine in recent months, but have not broken through or taken over the metropolitan cities.
Yuriy Chumak hands over many of the nights on the roof of Kyiv, perched on a machine gun. He is a Supreme Court judge during the day and is part of a volunteer drone hunting squad at night. He said the sky has become quite busy in recent weeks.
“There are even more drones. This is an objective fact. And of course, the more difficult it is to resist them, the more difficult it becomes,” Chumak told CNN.
He said that after Moscow began flying drones at higher altitudes, it became much more difficult, if not impossible, for his units to destroy them.
Previously, Russian forces flew drones low along riverbeds, for example, to ensure that Ukrainian air defenses are not detected for as long as possible.
“The time to respond was very short because it detected it when it was (close),” he said.
Recently, Russian drones fly 2-5 km (1-3 miles) from the ground, he said.
“We can see them all. The radar can track them. But it’s no longer possible to shoot them down with a machine gun,” Chumac said.
However, missiles are much shorter in supply. This encourages the Ukrainian military to find new solutions on the go. Melnyk said the efficiency of Ukraine’s air defense systems is incredible. “Around 80% of drones are still intercepted. A few months ago, this percentage was around 95. (But) the Russian influence can be seen as an increase (in drones) and changes in tactics,” he added.
Speaking with reporters last month, Ukrainian President Voldymi Zelensky praised volunteers like Ukrainian Air Force and volunteers like Chumak as Russia strengthened its air force.
He added that Kyiv is currently using drone-to-drone interceptors to combat higher altitude bombings. “We have technology. The question is when can we expand,” he said.
Zelensky said Russia can produce between 300 and 350 drones per day, while Ukraine can only make 100.
“This issue is no longer about capacity. It’s financial,” he said.
Kyiv Mom Khrystyna Reshetnik said one of the worst things about Russian air attacks is that they are used to three boys, ages 4, 8 and 11.
“He’s just a little boy and he already knows what’s going on,” Reshetnik said. As the size and range of attacks intensifies, the family has spent more time in an underground parking garage where Orexander and his two brothers sleep in the trunk of the car.
“This has become the norm for our kids. It hurts my heart,” she said.
But despite the daily horrors they experience, Reshshitnik is one of the lucky ones. They live in Kiev, a relatively protected city. The majority of the explosions they heard are Ukrainian air defenses intercepting Russian drones.
Access to Ukraine’s air defense is restricted by the willingness of its Western allies to afford it, leaving many others across the country without a protective shield. Russian troops near the frontline use small drones to target civilians.
“We’ll talk about these big attacks, especially when Kiev is under attack, but cities like Sumy and Kherson are under attack 24/7,” Melnyk said.
“(a) I’m going to enter the shelter as ballistic missiles come. My point is that this is the daily life of Ukrainian citizens and civilians.”