For California, there is an almost certain disaster, but there is something people can do to prepare. Here’s what you need to know about risks:
California Governor signs emergency declaration after trembling
The California governor says “we are worried about damage” from the magnitude 7 earthquake.
That’s the inevitable series of questions Christine Goulet gets whenever she’s asked what she’s going to do to make a living.
“When will the next major earthquake come? Where do you know? When should I prepare?” Goolet, director of the Earthquake Science Center at the U.S. Geological Survey in Los Angeles, told USA Today. “If they knew I was studying earthquakes, it would hardly be. If I received dollars every time I was asked, I would be rich.”
Goolet has an answer, but she can’t predict the future.
Ominous Truth: Big things can happen anytime, and there are multiple “big things.”
“It’s going to happen. The earthquake will be a few minutes, tomorrow, or a week from now, and we can’t accurately predict it at this point. We don’t know,” Goolet said. “But the point is, in general, we need to prepare for them.”
The most prestigious study of California’s risk was conducted in 2015, but has changed little over the past decade. The state almost certainly faces an earthquake of magnitudes below 6.7 within the next 30 years, the USGS concludes. Some of the most at-risk places are San Francisco and Los Angeles.
The continuous and intense risks of California coincides with major earthquakes brewing along the Cascadia subduction zone off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.
The San Francisco Bay Area is facing a high chance of getting something big
With nearly four dozen faults in the area extending from Napa to Monterey, USGS researchers previously estimated that the San Francisco Gulf region is 72% of the chances of major earthquakes recording a magnitude of 6.7 or more by 2043.
The findings also show that the Bay Area is 51% likely to experience an earthquake with a size of 7 and 20% likely to measure a size of 7.5 or more within that time frame.
“The earthquake threat is very realistic,” said Richard Allen, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley and director of the Berkeley Institute of Seismic Research. “It’s a real challenge because we have to take that long-term view, and we don’t live our lives in fear.”
In December, thousands of people in the Bay Area and Northern California were worried after a magnitude 7 earthquake along California’s sparsely populated north coast, causing a tsunami warning across the west coast belt that ranged from southern Oregon to San Francisco.
Traci Grant, 53, a public relations expert who felt Quake in San Francisco, told USA Today when he felt his slow-motion remodeled apartment was moving.
“It just kept going,” Grant said. “It was scary and a little exciting at the same time. It was more of a roll than just shaking, shaking, or swinging.”
Within two hours of the first earthquake, some areas experienced 13 aftershocks ranging from 5.1 to 3.1, the USGS reported. Two hours later, at least 39 aftershocks, the size of at least 2.5, officials said. No earthquake-related injuries or major damages have been reported.
Goolet said if the earthquake had been directly on land, “the impact would have been more devastating.”
Goolet said the magnitude of the December trembling reminded me of the great San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906.
The San Francisco earthquake killed an estimated 3,000 people and destroyed about 80% of the city. It is known as one of the deadliest things in American history. Allen also noted the 1868 Hayward Fault Earthquake that struck the center of the Bay Area and killed 30 people.
With all Bay Area faults, Allen said his research shows that there are “three three opportunities” where something big could soon become.
“We’re late because of a recurrence,” Allen said.
The last major earthquake in the Bay Area occurred more than a decade ago when the 2014 earthquake rattled the Napa Valley.
One person has been killed and 300 injured due to a shaking 6.0 magnitude trembling in Wine Country. The incident caused more than $1 billion in damages across Napa and neighboring cities, including Valleyjo, California, and it took years to rebuild.
The Loma Prieta earthquake that subsequently shook the San Francisco Bay Area in 1989 killed 63 people and injured nearly 3,800 people. The earthquake disrupted the World Series, destroying Bay Bridge, Oakland’s Cypress Freeway and San Francisco strips. It caused damages of up to $10 billion.
“There’s this perception that big earthquakes happen frequently, but in reality it’s very rare,” Goolet said. “I don’t know when those will happen.”
Los Angeles is also ripe for big ones
The Los Angeles area could also suffer a major earthquake as it could cause a 6.7 magnitude earthquake within the next 30 years, the USGS said.
Furthermore, there is a 46% chance that a 7.0 magnitude earthquake will hit LA, and a 31% chance that a 7.5 magnitude tremor will attack over the same period.
Berkeley seismologist Allen said Southern California is at a higher risk of earthquakes than its counterparts in Northern California. “They face similar, if not high,” Allen said.
Goolet added that Los Angeles and its surrounding area are highly populous (although nearly 18.6 million residents according to statistics from the California finance department), and there is a high possibility of massive destruction. She cited the tragic 6.7 earthquake in Northridge, California in 1994, killing 60 people and injuring more than 7,000 people.
The devastation left thousands of buildings and structures that have collapsed or damaged throughout Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange and San Bernardino counties. Thousands of residents became homeless as the aftermath caused $13-$20 billion in damages.
“The larger the population of an earthquake, the greater the impact,” Goolet said.
Goolet also refers to a series of 2019 earthquakes in Ridgecrest, California. A 7.1 magnitude earthquake rattled the city two days after the first 6.4 magnitude earthquake. Goulet was, surprisingly, one of the USGS on-site teams studying the first tremor when a second fury surged.
“It’s scary,” Goolet said. “We were getting measurements, but the second day was about six miles away from us, just like we had finished work the next day and had planned. It was very close.”
Goolet said he remembers panicked residents reassuring they were all okay.
“That’s why we can’t specifically predict when, where an earthquake will occur, and how big it will be,” added Gourette. “But what we can do is gather all the research that causes earthquakes and probability, called stochastic earthquake hazard analysis.”
How to prepare for an earthquake disaster
As stated in a 2022 USA Today article, the massive earthquake was an existential crisis for millions along the West Coast. But experts said there are things that can be done to help people prepare for a major disaster.
If you experience an earthquake, Salaminson, a research geophysicist at USGS’s Earthquake Science Center in Mountain View, California, advises not to run it.
“If you feel trembling, you should drop it, cover it and hold it to protect yourself,” Minson said. “Don’t go anywhere. Don’t go outside. The enormous number of injuries that occur in earthquakes are people trying to step into, sway or fall into broken glass.”
Berkeley seismologist Allen recommends creating earthquake plans that include where households meet, and have bags and suitcases ready for at least a few days.
Residents would at least want a way to charge their flashlights and phones. You will also need to prepare to shut off electricity and water for days or weeks.
Here are some practical tips:
- When you are trying to use your mobile phone, do not text – call. In disasters, text messages are more reliable and there are fewer cell networks.
- To power your phone, you can buy cheap weather radios, flashlights, and hand crank chargers and keep the cell running without power for days.
- Lucy Jones of USGS Seismologist said earlier. You’ll want to be able to buy things even if your credit card doesn’t work for a while.
- Easy things like securing a bookshelves can save lives. Downloading the Early Warning App will give you precious moments to protect yourself in the event of a major earthquake. Buying earthquake insurance will help protect your homeowners. And taking part in the annual drills can help remind you of other simple steps you can take to prepare.
contribution: Elizabeth Wiese and Joel Shannon