Tropical Storm Vata remains a dangerous storm, but powerful forces are preventing the storm from strengthening any further. Here’s why it’s important:
Tropical Storm Vata forms south of the Florida Panhandle
Tropical Storm Vata is strengthening in the eastern Gulf Coast and is expected to have some impact on the northern Gulf Coast.
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Residents along the U.S. Gulf Coast should be wary of wind, rain and storm surge as Tropical Storm Vata moves along the coast, but some scientific clues suggest it is unlikely to follow in the footsteps of past large storms in the region.
Satellite images give Bertha a distinctly lopsided appearance, which may be a good thing for people in hurricane-prone areas. The nascent storm is being affected by shear winds that are expected to prevent it from developing into the type of hurricane that can sometimes develop quickly just off the Gulf coast.
On the afternoon of July 21, National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rome said that Bertha’s damage was likely at its maximum.
Wind shear is expected to increase from the night of July 21 into July 22, according to the National Weather Service office in New Orleans. Those winds could weaken Bertha and bring the heaviest rain to the south and southwest of the New Orleans area, the weather service said.
However, storm forecasts are rarely certain, and Vata Island is no exception, as evidenced by an even stronger storm on the morning of July 21st. Its course also moved slightly north during the night. Meteorologists said the potential for winds and inland flooding was decreasing, although onshore impacts remained possible to strengthen or worsen if the path or intensity changed.
What are Bertha’s predictions?
The general forecast as of July 21 is as follows, but the Bureau of Meteorology warns the storm could weaken sooner than expected.
- Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur between the Mississippi-Alabama border and the mouth of the Mississippi River, with peak levels potentially reaching up to 4 feet above ground level.
- Isolated areas of flash flooding are possible along the Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to southern Louisiana and the Texas Upper Coast until July 24.
- Sustained winds reached 45 mph as it approached the coast on July 23 and 30 mph as it moved inland on July 24.
Tough situation surrounding Bertha
Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami, said the type of winds that could push Bertha’s storm south have been seen before. “This is a typical pattern for July, these larger upper-level ridges,” Hazelton said. Since shear rain is out in the north, most of the heavy rain or “dirty side” of the storm is above the water.
Bata’s structure is determined by the extent to which it interacts with the coast in the face of increasingly harsh conditions.
Hazelton said the battered Bertha resembles Hurricane Barry in July 2019, which was in poor shape.
Like Bertha, Barry also occurred during the early stages of El Niño, but it was a weaker El Niño, Hazelton said. El Niño is known to cause shear winds that inhibit hurricane development in the Atlantic Ocean.
Brian McNoldy, a hurricane scientist at the University of Miami, said Bertha was likely affected by above-average sea surface temperatures in the Gulf, but faced “very strong vertical wind shear.”
“Overall, it’s a marginal storm in a marginal situation,” McNoldy said.
Hurricane Hunter flights were scheduled for the afternoon of July 21st and the 22nd.
As of July 21, there remains a “slim chance” that Bertha can do a little better, but Hazelton said the wind shear will probably be a little worse.
Bertha’s predecessor
The name Bertha has been used for decades to refer to a storm in the Atlantic Ocean. Like many previous storms, Bertha likely won’t be one to remember, but previous storms also highlight points that meteorologists often make. Even weak tropical cyclones can have deadly effects.
Dinah Boyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about violent weather, climate change and other news. Contact dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or dinahvp.77 on X or Signal.
