Where are the hurricanes? El Niño may be the answer.
A strong El Niño could reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean this year, according to Colorado State University meteorologists.
A major update to the influential hurricane forecast says the 2026 hurricane season could be the mildest in recent memory due to a strong El Niño phenomenon.
Colorado State University meteorologists announced on July 8 that they expect four fewer storms than originally expected in their outlook for April’s Atlantic hurricane season.
They also say the public should not feel too reassured by the new forecast, as the storm could be destructive if it actually occurs. “Preparations should be made on a seasonal basis, regardless of the anticipated activity,” the new forecast reads.
However, the change means the new forecast is for a “significantly lower-than-usual season.”
In a typical year, there are 14 named storms in the Atlantic Ocean, but only nine are predicted this year. The previous April forecast for the 2026 season had predicted 13 storms.
“We lowered the numbers further to account for the increased likelihood of a strong El Niño event,” Colorado State University researcher Phil Klotzbach said in an email to USA TODAY.
“We don’t expect any major events in the Atlantic, as a strong El Niño is likely to occur this year,” he said.
Low forecasts following busy year
“This is a very low estimate,” Klotzbach said.
But this situation may feel even more unusual, as the past decade has seen above-average activity every year, with a few exceptions.
He said 2015 was the last season in which the team predicted fewer than 10 named storms.
What causes the low predictions?
Wind shear is at the center of the forecast.
Overall, the most prominent feature of El Niño during the hurricane season is a gradual increase in vertical wind shear. “A scissor-like wind pattern that cuts off the top of an organized storm seedling before it develops into a strong hurricane,” WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Rowley said in an email to USA TODAY.
The report states that “a strong El Niño is expected to be the dominant driver of the upcoming hurricane season, causing high levels of vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic Ocean.”
So far this season, increases in wind shear have been highest in the western tropical Atlantic, particularly across the Caribbean, which also contributes to fewer landfalls in the United States during El Niño, Lowry said.
And looking to the future, Klotzbach said one model is predicting record wind shear from August through October across the major Atlantic hurricane development areas.
What is the current chance of a major hurricane making landfall?
In addition, Colorado forecasters said they “forecast the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline and the Caribbean region to be well below average.” Currently, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States is just 17%, far below the average of 43%.
Specifically, the report says there is a 10% chance of a major landfall on the Gulf Coast and an 8% chance on the East Coast.
Which states are most at risk?
Even though the number of predicted storms has decreased, states like Florida and North Carolina are still most at risk from storms. Florida has a 49% chance of a named storm forming within 80 miles of Florida again this year, the highest rate of any U.S. state. North Carolina’s odds are 32%.
However, both states see the chance of storms having decreased significantly. Earlier this year, Florida’s odds were 74% and North Carolina’s 54%.
Klotzbach said this is not unusual, and all states along the East Coast and Gulf Coast are now less likely to experience storms than expected earlier this year.
“The main reason that predicted storms continue to decline is because confidence and strength of the upcoming El Niño is increasing. Signs of the strongest El Niño on record have increased considerably,” he said.
An eerie warning sound echoes
Hurricane forecasters agree that all it takes is one hurricane to be a disaster.
So if you haven’t started preparing for a hurricane yet, now is a good time to start.
Check out this page for tips on preparing your home for a hurricane.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, focusing on weather and climate.
