CNN
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For more than 30 years, Iran has built a web of proxy networks to keep the enemy at bay as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Alikhamenei tightened its grip on power. A direct strike against Iran remained unthinkable.
Its invincible image fell apart on June 13, when Israel launched a surprising, unprecedented attack deep in Iran, crushing Tehran’s sense of security and unraveling the aura of carefully cultivated strength.
The strike took over top military leaders and some of Iran’s most well-known nuclear scientists. According to Hossein Kermanpour, head of the Ministry of Health Information Centre, 627 people have died, including at least 49 women and 13 children, with human casualties in importance and 627 people have died. The US joined Israeli campaign on Sunday, attacking three nuclear sites before declaring a ceasefire between Israel and Iran the following day.
Many people in Iran and abroad fear that the country’s leader – injured pride and defense may strengthen grip at home while adopting a much more hawk attitude both domestically and foreign policy.
Israel and the United States had raised a change of government as a potential result of an attack on Iran. Their failure to bring about this prompted the administration to assert victory.
Iran’s leadership has shown resilience, replacing what has been lost and harshly suppressing what they see as conspiring to Israeli attacks.
The signs also point to a regime that is far more delusional and likely to rule with fist and fist at home in fear of cooperation with the enemy.
After three years of rule by a conservative government led by Iranian-led Ebrahim Raisi, Iran last year elected reformist Masuud Pezeshkian, who campaigned for dialogue with Iran’s enemy and presented it as a way to deal with the country’s domestic problems.
For many Iranians, he was seen as the last hope of offering a nuclear agreement with the West and reintegrating Iran into the international community.
During the 12-day conflict, Iran repeatedly fought back against Israel, causing major cities like Tel Aviv, killing 28 people. The ability to retaliate under the fire was praised at home even among those who spoke with CNN, who are opposed to the administration.
“People feel very nationalistic at this point. We’ve gone through war together and everyone feels unfair, so the government has some good intentions,” Ali said.
But what many Iranians are worried about is what happens next. As the regime moves to eradicate perceived collaborators with Israel, fears of impending crackdowns on reformists are growing. By Wednesday, authorities had arrested 700 people accused of being “Israel mercenaries,” according to the state’s Furz News Agency.
Nida, a 45-year-old Iranian, said he believes that “the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite wing of the Iranian military, is “become stronger and stronger” especially if an organized leader creates a vacuum cleaner of power.
Khamenei has reportedly had little access to communications and is hiding in a bunker, and has not yet been seen publicly since Israel and Iran reached the ceasefire that came into effect on Tuesday.
“They (the government) are strong in their power show (against Israel) and it will work, at least for a while,” Needa told CNN. “We don’t know if there’s any profits left over the past few years (reforming) — what was that for? We always knew that change had to come from within and that was happening.
All Iranians who spoke to CNN did so under a state of anonymity out of fear of their safety.
Arash Azitzi, a New York-based Iranian expert and author of the book “What Iranians Want,” said Iranians are likely worried about “an injured regime that comes after them and further closes political and civic spaces.”
Repression could get worse, he told CNN, adding that Iranian opposition overseas has proven to be “inappropriate and politically irrelevant” but that the civil society at home is “defensive.”
Experts say that the attack on Iran was bold only to conservatives who long felt that the West and Israel were unreliable, and that negotiations were merely a tactic to undermine the country. The fate of reformers and pragmatists now rests on balance, and only time can tell if they are overcoming changes in leadership ranks that are likely to come, they said.
Sheena Tossey, a senior fellow at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for International Policy, told CNN: “The attacks will strengthen hardliners, and that diplomacy with the West is in vain and that Iran must be militarily independent.” “Engagement with the Western Army, the voices of reformists alienated in this climate are alienated.”
“In the short term, there’s a good chance that hardliners will win,” he said. “However, it could change depending on the broader outcome of the conflict and whether or not diplomatic efforts with the US will be rewarded.”
On Sunday, the US took part in Israel’s campaign against Iran, attacking three nuclear facilities, putting a full-scale war with the Islamic Republic at risk. But US President Donald Trump later announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, and later maintained the administration that he said he didn’t want to change because it would “lead to chaos.”
“The broader lesson is that the Islamic Republic is not invincible, but that is not easily fallen,” Tossi said.
Israel’s attack on Iran did not lead to a mass uprising, but to a show of unity among the Iranians who saw their country as being attacked in an unprovoked war, despite their vigilance of possible crackdowns.
“There is an outrage that we feel about Trump and Israel, whether people are supporters of our government or not,” Reza, a 35-year-old Iranian man, told CNN.
Kahanai, the Middle East’s longest serving leader, has ruled with iron fist for over 35 years, and has destroyed protests since at least 2005.
As Iran’s highest authority, much of the country’s domestic and foreign policy is influenced, if not shaped by him.
Some experts say there is likely a frustration with Khamenei despite the show of post-conflict national unity with Israel.
“He was too cautious when he had to be bold and too daring when he had to be careful,” said Ali Vez, director of the Iran project for the International Crisis Group, adding that the clergy is probably seen as destroying Iran’s deterrence and “making the country vulnerable.”
“He and his decision-making have a lot of responsibility. His flexibility at the negotiation table, his rebellion in the face of much stronger traditional military force,” Vaez told CNN. Once the dust settles, he said there may be questions about the illness leader and his decisions over the years.
According to Vaez, questions can also arise about the role and importance of the Supreme Leader in the long run.
“There is a strong desire from Iran’s revolutionary security guards and military forces, and they doubled their much more established positions, militarizing their inner spheres further, and even pursuing nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrent,” says Vaez.
He added that paranoia over Israeli government invasions could likely lead to “purging” at the top level of the system, which could lead to hardliners winning.
The fate of the reformist Pezeschkian and his moderate camp remains unknown. While in hiding, the Supreme Leader spoke with Iranians, issued official statements, and it was Pezeshkian who attended the anti-war protests in Tehran.
Still, reformers have not escaped the rage of the masses. The 42-year-old Iranian woman questioned the viability of the current regime. “They put us in a quagmire,” she told CNN. “This happened with reformist watches.”
Experts say that the shattering of the regime’s invincible aura will change Iran, but it is uncertain how that shift will occur, and it depends on how Iranian leaders and foreign forces respond to the 12-day conflict.
For the Iranian people, the sense that they were safe at least within their country’s borders was cancelled.
“The Islamic Republic had one social contract with society, which means that it took away all its freedom. “Now that image is shattered into the eyes of Iranian people.”
