List of hurricane names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Historic Pensacola storm name ‘Sally’ returns to list of 21 names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
- Climate models suggest a strong ‘super’ El Niño could occur later this year.
- A strong El Niño can disrupt global weather patterns and cause extreme weather events around the world.
- El Niño typically brings cool, wet conditions to the southern United States and mild winters to the north.
- El Niño often suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic, but large storms can still make landfall.
Climate models released this weekend show what could be the strongest El Niño event in recorded history, raising the possibility of a rare “super” event later this year.
A “super” El Niño, also referred to as a “Jurassic El Niño” by Colorado State University hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach, typically refers to an unusually strong rise in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. That warming can disrupt global weather patterns, changing storm tracks, rainfall, and temperatures for months at a time.
Forecasters stress that it is not yet certain. But multiple long-range models now point to a warming trend, some into regions rarely seen in the modern record, a sign that has caught the attention of scientists.
2026 Hurricane Season: What does “Jurassic El Niño” mean for Florida?
How is “Super” El Niño different?
Not all El Niño events are created equal. Some have only mild and local effects, while others have the potential to dramatically change weather patterns around the world. What sets “Super” El Niño apart is its strength and range of influence.
A stronger El Niño could lead to more intense warming in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, leading to significant changes in the jet stream. This change will affect weather systems far beyond the tropics, raising the possibility of far-reaching effects across multiple continents. Scientists also have high confidence in predicting the potential outcome when an event reaches this intensity.
If this system continues to gain strength over the summer and fall, it could rival or surpass some of the most powerful events on record in modern times, such as the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Niños. These events caused significant global impacts, ranging from extreme rainfall and flooding in some regions to drought and heatwaves in others.
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How El Niño affects nearby weather
According to the Climate Prediction Center, the effects of El Niño may vary depending on location.
For example, the southern United States often experiences cool, humid conditions during the fall and winter months. This pattern can also increase the frequency of storms, increasing the risk of severe weather events such as heavy rain, strong thunderstorms, and occasional flooding.
In contrast, during strong El Niño events, temperatures in the northern United States are typically warmer than average. Winters tend to be generally mild, with less snowfall and fewer prolonged cold spells, which alleviates some of the dangers of winter, but also impacts water supplies.
On the West Coast, especially California, heavy rain and flooding are more likely when a strong El Niño event occurs. Rising ocean temperatures could lead to more intense storms and longer periods of rain, raising concerns about landslides, river flooding, and other weather-related impacts.
Is El Niño expected to occur during the 2026 hurricane season?
All signs point to a warming Pacific Ocean, which should lead to El Niño and impact hurricane season by late summer.
“There are a lot of models that predict El Niño,” Klotzbach said. “It’s a pretty solid bet, it’s not a perfect bet, but we think it’s a pretty good bet.”
The Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño watch on March 12 as the current La Niña weakens. Scientists at the center said there was a 62% chance of an El Niño occurring from June to August.
Records of La Niña have been around for about 15 years, but this was the first time an El Niño watch had been announced. The El Niño phenomenon is expected to continue until at least the end of 2026.
Klotzbach said spring can be a difficult time to predict the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which includes El Niño and La Niña, because changing seasons can produce different signals.
Professor Klotzbach noted that CSU is scheduled to release its seasonal hurricane forecast on April 9, and said, “In the past, we’ve been surprised when things looked like they were going to be fine, and then things didn’t turn out that way.”
How does ENSO status affect hurricane season?
Klotzbach said ENSO conditions, particularly El Niño and La Niña, can dictate Atlantic hurricane activity. La Niña often favors a more active season, while El Niño can suppress storms. That’s because warmer waters in the Pacific Ocean could change global wind patterns, creating stronger wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean and weakening developing hurricanes.
Historically, in years with strong El Niño events, the overall number of Atlantic hurricanes has decreased, but large storms still reach the U.S. coast. Even if El Niño reduces the total number of storms, it is still possible for a single major hurricane to make landfall and cause significant damage.
In the warmest El Niño year since 1950, three major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher struck the United States: Audrey in 1957, Betsy in 1965, and Idalia in 2023.
Idalia formed as a Category 3 storm near Keaton Beach, Florida, with reported wind speeds of approximately 115 miles per hour. The National Hurricane Center said it was the third strongest hurricane to make landfall in the Big Bend region in modern history, behind Cedar Key in 1896 and Hurricane Easy in the 1950s.
In contrast, ENSO-neutral years do not strongly promote or suppress hurricane formation. Other factors, such as Atlantic sea surface temperatures, short-term wind patterns, and Saharan dust, often play a larger role in storm formation and strength. Landings in the United States are relatively rare, even during the neutral peak season. For example, the neutral 2005 Atlantic season had 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes, while the neutral 2013 season had only 14 named storms, including two hurricanes.
Research has shown that in neutral years, the jet stream often directs storms out to sea rather than off the Gulf Coast or the Southeast, reducing overall landfall risk. The 2025 season shows this. The season began under ENSO neutral conditions and transitioned to La Niña in October. Thirteen named storms formed, including five hurricanes, but only one tropical cyclone made landfall on the East Coast.
Forecasters say conditions in 2026 are likely to remain normal until late summer, meaning the overall number of storms will depend more on regional and seasonal factors than on ENSO. Late-season El Niño events may reduce Atlantic hurricane activity, but do not eliminate the risk of damaging landfalls.
What is La Niña?
According to the National Weather Service, La Niña is a weather pattern that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are colder than average. This cooling changes atmospheric circulation and affects weather around the world. La Niña events can also affect the jet stream, potentially causing disruption of the polar vortex and pushing arctic air further south.
What is El Niño?
According to NOAA, El Niño is the opposite pattern, occurring when Pacific waters in the central and eastern regions are warmer than average. This warming changes global weather patterns in a different way than La Niña. In the United States, El Niño winters typically bring wet, cool weather to southern states and mild, dry weather to the Pacific Northwest.
When is Atlantic hurricane season?
Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.
According to NOAA, 97% of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this period.
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as a Weather Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at baddison@gannett.com.. Find her on Facebook.
