World leaders are particularly concerned about the prospect of droughts, heavy rains and heat waves that are expected to occur unevenly around the world.
Can scientists still really trust El Niño forecasts?
Scientists have warned that while El Niño reduces the likelihood of hurricanes, storms can still form because the ocean stores excess heat.
On June 2nd, a new warning was issued regarding the impending El Niño weather pattern.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations’ meteorological agency, has announced that there is an 80% chance of an El Niño phenomenon starting this summer.
The prospect of a strong El Niño event is raising concerns that long-term climate warming will be compounded by even more heat, including ocean heatwaves. Forecasts are on high alert around the world as this pattern has a major impact on global weather, and a strong event could have ripple effects for months to come.
The WMO said the El Niño phenomenon, driven by unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, is beginning to affect global temperatures and rainfall patterns.
After this summer, there is a nearly 90% chance that El Niño will continue through at least November. WMO said in a statement that while uncertainty remains about the strength and timing of El Niño’s peak, most forecast models suggest that El Niño will be at least moderate and possibly strong.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean are above average. Natural climate patterns influence weather around the world.
“The science is clear: El Niño has a 90% chance of arriving on our doorstep in the coming months,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a video statement. “The world must treat this as an urgent climate warning: El Niño will add fuel to the fire of a warming world.
“The impact will be even more intense, it will travel further and it will cross borders with devastating speed,” he said.
Prepare for a “strong” El Niño
Scientists say this could be a very strong El Niño, potentially a “super” El Niño, but this is not the official term used by the WMO or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate droughts and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heat waves both on land and in the oceans,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Sauro said in a statement. “The recent El Niño event of 2023-2024 was one of the fifth strongest on record and contributed to record global temperatures observed in 2024.”
WMO says El Niño is typically associated with increased rainfall in southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and parts of central Asia, and drought in Australia, Indonesia and parts of South Asia.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which surface ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average.
The name means little boy or Christ child in Spanish. El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s when unusually warm water appeared in the Pacific Ocean around Christmas.
The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as El Niño (Southern Oscillation), and scientists refer to it as ENSO. This cycle moves back and forth between warm and cold ocean water in areas along the equator of the tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña is characterized by lower than average seawater levels in the region.
How warm is the water temperature?
In the El Niño region along the equator in western South America, sea surface temperatures have recently been rising rapidly. In the El Niño region, sea surface temperatures are moving westward at near-record levels, a clear sign that El Niño is beginning.
El Niño outbreak ‘progressing smoothly’
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California’s College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, said the formation of circulation patterns is already “clearly well underway.” The atmosphere and ocean are working together and appear to be consistent with model predictions of “a significant El Niño by midsummer,” Swain said in a recent update on WeatherWest’s website.
NOAA’s latest forecast predicts that El Niño will likely occur in June or July. The agency’s next update on weather patterns is expected to be released on June 11.
Seasonal Forecast Outlook predicts that El Niño could lead to a busier-than-normal hurricane season in the Pacific Ocean and a slightly less-than-normal season in the Atlantic Basin.
