Aviation experts say the increase in near misses highlights both the system’s strengths and risks in crowded airspace.
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- Recent near collisions and fatalities have raised questions about aviation safety.
- Near midair crashes have increased by 61% since 2019, according to an analysis of federal data.
- Experts say the airline industry often reacts to accidents rather than proactively introducing new safety technology.
On April 18, two Southwest Airlines jets passed within 500 vertical feet of each other over Nashville. Days later, two commercial planes narrowly avoided a collision at John F. Kennedy International Airport.
That’s not to mention two high-profile crashes in recent years. The 2025 fatal crash involving an American Airlines jet and an Army helicopter, and the recent fatal crash at New York’s LaGuardia International Airport. Perhaps because of their rarity, aviation accidents (or near-accidents) tend to generate headlines and public outrage.
But for many travelers, accidents like this raise important questions. Are these avoided collisions a good sign that aviation safety systems are working, or is it a warning that another deadly disaster is just around the corner?
An analysis of federal data by aviation registration and tracking company AviatorDB shows a 61% increase in near-air collisions since 2019.
Experts added that while this spike is not entirely surprising, it is important that regulators take it seriously.
“There are more planes in the sky than there were 10, 20 years ago,” Laurie Garrow, a civil engineering professor specializing in aviation at Georgia Tech, told USA TODAY. “The more planes you have, the more opportunities you have to have conflict resolution.”
Mary Schiavo, a former Department of Transportation inspector general, said avoiding a collision at the last minute is better than the alternative, but still not the optimal outcome.
“We continue to have problems that require go-arounds, which means too many planes flying too close to each other,” she said. “I still think of it as a warning sign because there were so many accidents. The fact that we’re having an accident like this after two major crashes, those are warning signs and that’s what statistics are for.”
How incidents improve aviation safety
Schiavo said the aviation industry is good at learning from past accidents, but that alone is not always enough.
“It’s just ridiculous to look at statistics this bad and wait until there are deaths,” she says.
The recent fatal crash at New York’s LaGuardia International Airport has highlighted how reactionary our aviation safety system is. Schiavo said regulators have long touted technology that can warn pilots and ground vehicle operators alike that they are on a collision course. In the LaGuardia crash, an Air Canada regional jet collided with a fire truck that was crossing the runway it was scheduled to land on, killing both pilots.
Federal Aviation Administration regulations and the airport’s own guidelines do not require trucks to be equipped with devices that alert air traffic controllers to their presence on the runway.
“I have no doubt that LaGuardia and the FAA will require all fire engines to be equipped with transponders, but it doesn’t have to cost two young pilots their lives to make that happen. That mindset has to change,” Schiavo said.
Mr. Garrow agreed that aggressively demanding the adoption of new technologies is an important step in improving aviation safety.
“Making sure we’re investing in new technology, introducing communications protocols and new technologies. We’d love to see them invest in making sure these technologies are up to date and more commonplace,” she said.
Schiavo, the National Transportation Safety Board and others have warned that the FAA doesn’t always analyze accident data in a timely manner.
In its final report on the fatal mid-air collision between an Army Blackhawk helicopter and an American Airlines regional jet, the NTSB cited “a lack of effective data sharing and analysis between the FAA, aircraft operators, and other relevant organizations” as the primary cause.
The FAA told USA TODAY in a statement that upgrades and improvements to aviation safety systems are underway.
Last year, the FAA took two important steps to further improve the safety of the airborne public throughout the National Airspace System (NAS). Expanded the use of artificial intelligence (AI) to analyze safety data and established an integrated safety management office. We also provide state-of-the-art air traffic control systems to U.S. airline passengers. This includes the addition of an airport surface surveillance system that allows air traffic controllers to track and identify aircraft and vehicles on runways and taxiways under all weather conditions.
The NTSB pointed to past comments by Commissioner Jennifer Homendy. Homendy previously criticized the FAA and Congress for failing to act on the FAA’s recommendations.
What is safety in aviation?
Schiavo said that while a low number of deaths is a good metric, it is not the only indicator of aviation safety. But there’s also no agreed-upon definition of what flight safety is, she says.
“All we can say is that, generally speaking, on a per-mile basis, 100 miles in a car versus 100 miles in an airplane, the airplane wins, but can we say, ‘Is it safer?'” The FAA has never defined that, Schiavo said. “(The FAA’s) line is, ‘If we say it’s safe, it’s safe to fly,’ but we know they’re not looking at the data, they don’t need the equipment, and we know they don’t have the positions to analyze that data.”
The NTSB criticized the FAA in the wake of the DCA crash for failing to recognize the danger and deploy personnel in a manner that would have prevented the crash.
Ms Garrow said air travel was the safest form of transport, but she understood why the traveling public would have questions after a high-profile incident.
“When something like this happens, I empathize with people who are nervous about getting on a plane. I think that’s a common reaction,” she said. “There are always ways to improve aviation safety.”
suggestion
One of the NTSB’s main recommendations after the crash at DCA was to require aircraft to use a system that broadcasts their position within the nation’s airspace, known as ADS-B. Congress has not yet passed legislation to make this change, but competing versions of the aviation safety bill are being considered in both chambers.
Although the investigation into the LaGuardia accident is still in its early stages, the NTSB is likely to recommend other warning systems in its final report.
Still, Schiavo and Garrow said the overall aviation system would be safer if these steps were taken proactively, rather than just after a major incident.
“It’s possible. That’s what’s so frustrating. We have the equipment. We could make it mandatory, but we don’t,” Schiavo said.
Zach Wichter is a travel reporter and writes the Cruising Altitude column for USA TODAY. He is based in New York and can be reached at zwichter@usatoday.com.
