December is expected to be cold, so odds may be higher than historical averages in many areas.
What is a polar vortex? How it affects snow and ice in the United States
A polar vortex is a large region of cold air that circulates over the North Pole. If the wind is strong, the wind will be suppressed, but if the wind weakens, it may sway or stretch.
With Christmas still more than two weeks away, meteorologists can’t predict exactly where people will see snow on Christmas Day. However, with predictions that December is likely to be a cold month, including the possibility of an arctic explosion, the odds could be higher than historical averages in many regions.
For now, all we can go on is where snow has been reported to have fallen on Christmas Day in the past.
If you’re yearning for a snowy vacation and looking for the best chance to see a white Christmas, weather history suggests there are many areas of the United States to visit. Continue reading to learn more.
Here’s what you need to know
Snow does not have to fall on December 25 to meet the Bureau of Meteorology’s definition of a white Christmas. All you need is at least 1 inch of snow on the ground. Small amounts of snow are not counted. However, snow falling during the day definitely adds to the Christmas mood.
On average, about 38% of the lower 48 states will see an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day, according to 21 years of data compiled by NOAA.
Since 2003, that percentage has varied widely from year to year, from just 17.6% in 2023 to a whopping 63% of the continental United States in 2009, according to Weather.com.
Is it because of Bing?
America’s fascination with white Christmas dates back to 1942, when Bing Crosby first sang the heartwarming song in the movie “Holiday Inn.” The song’s lyrics, written by Irving Berlin, evoke romantic images of Christmases past, “just like the Christmases I used to know.” A second film, White Christmas, also starring Crosby, was released in 1954.
Where is a white Christmas most likely to occur?
Alaska. Minnesota. Maine. Upstate New York. Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Almost everywhere in Idaho. And, of course, the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada. If you’re looking for the best chance for a white Christmas, NOAA says these are the areas that U.S. weather history suggests are the best.
Looking for a city where you’re almost guaranteed to see a white Christmas? According to NOAA data, Fairbanks, Alaska has had snow on Christmas almost every year since weather records began.
As of early December, Fairbanks was already reporting snow depths of 11 inches.
Other large cities with the highest odds of a white Christmas based on historical averages include Minneapolis, Green Bay, Buffalo and Burlington, Vermont, according to AccuWeather.
All of these cities reported snow on the ground as of Dec. 8, a good sign that the holiday season is fast approaching.
Historically, northern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin, much of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, and much of the Mountain West have a white Christmas more than 90 percent of the time.
