Thomas Massey loses to Ed Gullane in Kentucky Republican primary
Congressman Thomas Massey lost the Republican primary for Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District to pro-Trump challenger Ed Gullane.
If President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have fallen into dangerous territory, and they have, how can he defeat his Republican critics and continue to impose his will on a submissive Congress?
Call this the political dichotomy of the 47th president. Millions of voters who helped elect the president in 2024 now disapprove of his job as president, a warning of weakness. But his tenacity remains unshakable, the strongest of any president in recent decades, and a source of strength.
Just ask Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie.
On May 19, the seven-term congressman lost his bid for the Republican nomination for an eighth term in the most expensive House primary in history. After Mr. Massey opposed Mr. Trump on issues ranging from war to taxes to the Jeffrey Epstein file, the president helped endorse challenger Ed Galline. Gullane won.
“Third-rate Congressman Thomas Massey…must be removed from office as soon as possible!” Trump claimed about Truth Social. Two days later, Republican voters in the Bluegrass State responded.
In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who was opposed by President Trump for defending the state’s 2020 election results, finished third in the Republican gubernatorial nomination.
Mr. Raffensperger and Mr. Massey, who have longer political careers than Mr. Trump, were the latest in a string of Republicans facing involuntary retirement for mistaking Trump’s positions.
In the Louisiana primary held three days ago, President Trump’s other target, two-term Sen. Bill Cassidy, did not even advance to the Republican runoff. The primary race was led by Representative Julia Letlow, who won President Trump’s support, and state Treasurer John Fleming, who emphasized loyalty to the president.
This is the first time since 2012 that a previously elected senator has been defeated in a primary election.
In Indiana, at least five of the seven state senators who did not comply with President Trump’s request to redraw the congressional map lost their nomination contests in early May.
But there’s no denying that President Trump has been in political trouble lately, with his overall approval rating falling below 40% for the first time in his second term, a red flag for Republicans heading to the polls in November, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. After all, a president’s approval rating is the single most reliable indicator of how his party’s candidates will fare in the midterm elections.
Six months of voter group opinion helps explain how Mr. Trump can exert unprecedented control over the Republican Party while simultaneously leading Republicans to a perhaps even catastrophic setback within six months.
Where Trump fell from power
Trump’s support among Gen Z voters is crumbling.
In the 2024 election, Trump narrowed the traditional Democratic advantage among voters ages 18 to 29. His 43% share in CNN’s exit poll reflects a significant improvement for the Republican Party.
His net disapproval rating among young voters currently stands at 38 percentage points, according to Cook Report pollsters. Only 29% support it, while 67% disapprove, a surprising shift fueled by economic concerns and opposition to war with Iran.
Hispanics are another voter group that President Trump made significant inroads in 2024, with 46% support. They currently disapprove of his job by a nearly 2-to-1 margin, 64% to 33%.
The swings among Latino voters, also linked to economic concerns, could prove decisive in elections this fall in states such as Texas and Florida.
And many independent voters, the people who typically decide competitive elections, have had second thoughts, too. The president received 46% of the vote in 2024.
He currently trails among independents by 41 points (68% to 27%).
President Trump has maintained a firm stance
However, Republicans continue to overwhelmingly support Trump.
His approval rating among party members currently averages 81%. That’s lower than the 94% who would have voted for him in 2024, but still a healthy number and higher than partisan ratings of Barack Obama and George W. Bush at this point in their presidencies.
That base has allowed President Trump to shake up Republican primaries and usually quell the riot at the Capitol, but concerns about war with Iran are testing that.
Mr. Trump maintains stable support even among the elderly. Voters age 65 and older are currently split, with 45% in favor and 44% disapproving. That’s nearly half the number in the 2024 election, when 50% voted for Trump and 49% voted for Democrat Kamala Harris.
White Protestant evangelicals remain President Trump’s most loyal supporters.
More than 8 out of 10 people voted for him in 2024. His approval rating among this demographic in an April NPR/PBS News/Marist poll was lower, 64% to 34%, but still a nearly 2-to-1 margin in his favor. Of those who said they would vote for him in 2024, 84% approved of his job.
The National Mall was littered with MAGA hats and declarations of allegiance to the president during the Red Decade 250 celebration on May 17, marking the approaching 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, a day-long celebration of prayer. Mr. Trump and his top officials addressed the congregation by video and in person.
“We have to keep showing up,” said Sherry Tufts, 53, who runs an orphanage in Opelika, Alabama, and came to join like-minded people in prayer. “Before the election, we had lost almost all our freedoms,” but Trump “did a good job of turning things around.”
Her support is unwavering.
