NBA Conference Finals Prediction
Analysis of the NBA Conference Finals, Knicks vs. Cavaliers vs. Thunder vs. Spurs.
NEW YORK — New York Knicks players briefly huddled together near midcourt as jubilant fans slowly made their way back outside into an unseasonably warm night in the city.
Just a few minutes ago, the building was stunned and silent. That was before Jalen Brunson led his teammates and the city to an improbable upset in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
On Tuesday, May 19th, the Knicks desperately erased a 22-point deficit in the fourth quarter and overwhelmed the Cleveland Cavaliers 115-104 in overtime, moving them three wins away from reaching the NBA Finals.
This was the second-highest comeback in the fourth quarter of a postseason game since the start of the live commentary era in 1997.
Here are the takeaways from the Knicks’ victory in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Tuesday night.
Cavaliers squandered a golden chance, perhaps their best chance, to steal the game at the Garden
Entering Tuesday night, teams with a 22-point lead at any point in the fourth quarter of a postseason game were 594-1, a winning percentage of .998. The Cavaliers improved to 594 wins and 2 losses.
Essentially, this was Cleveland’s perfect chance to take the game on the road. From the 7:49 mark until the end of regulation, the Cavs gave up a 30-8 overtime run to the Knicks, sending the game into overtime.
In fact, by extension, the Knicks finished the game with a stunning 44-11 salvo that took Cleveland’s soul away.
“We should have won the game,” Cavs All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell told reporters after the game. “Even if there was complacency, we were up 22 points. God knows what, eight minutes? We have to win the game.”
Mitchell and James Harden combined for nine points on 2-of-13 shooting in the fourth quarter and overtime. The pair remained scoreless after regulation. As New York tightened its defense and forced Cleveland into turnovers, possession slowed down and shots were forced. The Cavaliers were coming into action far beyond the paint and were starting late on the shot clock.
The biggest problem for Cleveland is they need to flush this one out and move on. Because such losses can be long-lasting. It can seep into a team’s preparation and erode their confidence. If you fall into the 0-2 hole,
“We lost,” Mitchell added. “We blew (expletive). Okay, let’s get ready for Game 2. It’s pretty easy.”
Jalen Brunson was the 4th Flamethrower
This was special. He was one of the best closers in the world, willing his team to overcome impossible odds. Knicks All-Star captain Jalen Brunson was at his best in the fourth quarter, making clutch shots to attack the Cavaliers. He finished with 15 points on 7-of-9 shooting in the period. During one stretch, he single-handedly poured in 11 straight points, cutting Cleveland’s lead to five points.
This was Brunson at his best, no wasted movement, understanding space and leverage, and commitment to getting to his spot. And when he’s like this, it’s very difficult to beat the Knicks.
Brunson finished the game with 38 points, six assists, five rebounds, and three steals.
Cavaliers need to find a solution to James Harden’s problems on defense
To be clear, this isn’t the only reason the Cavaliers blew a 22-point lead. But it was painfully obvious how easily the Knicks sought him out in pick-and-rolls to match up with Jalen Brunson and target James Harden on defense. And every time New York finds itself in that scenario, it has taken advantage of it.
The Cavaliers tried to do the same thing when they had the ball, just looking for Brunson in the matchup.
The Knicks were forced to rely on that strategy as they needed to initiate a ton of runs to regain the lead.
“Sometimes you just have to do what the game tells you to do,” Knicks coach Mike Brown told reporters after the game. “They were trying to do the same thing with Jalen, so we said, ‘Okay, we feel like we can play that game.’ We try not to play that game too much, but we feel like we have a player in Jalen that can play that game with us.”
“There’s no secret. We were attacking Harden.”
What’s puzzling about Tuesday night’s loss is Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson’s inability to adjust. He didn’t bring in Max Strus, a guard with solid (albeit modest) defensive ability. In fact, Atkinson only took a timeout once amid New York’s relentless barrage.
“Well, I like to keep timeouts,” Atkinson said. “I didn’t want to take any timeouts in the final minute. If it’s a one- or two-point game, I try to keep it.”
This will not stop in the second game. The Knicks will continue to exploit this matchup, so the Cavaliers will need to find a way to prevent a run like this from happening again — whether it’s by avoiding switches, spreading out in the zone, or letting Harden drift to less powerful scorers.
The secret to New York’s series success: Get into the paint.
As much as the 3-point shooting struggles were a big factor in New York’s early hole and the second-half fire was a big reason for the turnaround, a more sustainable path to series success is in the picture.
The Knicks outscored the Cavs there Tuesday night by a 60-38 margin. This is especially noteworthy since Cleveland is tied for 10th place.th During the regular season, the Knicks ranked 22nd in paint points per game, averaging 52.0 points per game.n.d.at 47.8.
With Jarrett Allen guarding Josh Hart and Hart leaking out to the perimeter, the paint was left open for the Knicks to attack. Look for Cleveland to find a way to protect the rim with both Allen and Evan Mobley closer to the basket.
Because if New York can continue to gain similar advantages down the stretch, it’s hard to see how the Cavaliers can remain competitive in the series.
