Paxton leads Cornyn in Texas Senate runoff election

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Sen. John Cornyn is trailing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican primary runoff for the U.S. Senate. A new opinion poll with the run-off election just around the corner.

The latest poll from the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs shows the incumbent with a narrow lead over Paxton, with 7% of likely voters still undecided.

With early voting beginning Monday, May 18, and Election Day scheduled for Tuesday, May 26, Republican voters have a short time to decide who will be their nominee ahead of Democratic candidate James Talarico in the November 2026 general election.

Here are the latest poll results:

Paxton takes lead over Cornyn in Texas Senate race

The poll was conducted from April 28 to May 1 and sampled 1,200 Texas voters likely to participate in the state-wide Republican primary runoff elections in May 2026.

The poll shows Paxton (48%) leading Cornyn (45%) by 3 points among Texans who are likely to vote in the May 2026 Texas Senate Republican primary runoff. 7% of likely voters are still unsure how to vote. The margin of error is +/- 2.83%.

Breaking down these numbers into favorability ratings, 50% said they had a favorable opinion of Paxton, 43% said they had an unfavorable opinion, and 7% said they didn’t know enough about Paxton to form an opinion.

Meanwhile, Cornyn’s favorability rating among voters was 47%, with 49% having an unfavorable opinion of the senator.

The winner of the May runoff election will have to face Democratic candidate James Talarico in November 2026.

Texas Republicans are divided on whether Cornyn or Paxton can beat Talarico.

The Houston poll asked voters which Republican candidate would have a better chance of defeating Talarico in the November general election. result:

  • 43% — Cornyn.
  • 43% — Paxton.
  • 14% — Neither candidate.

The Texas Poll’s last poll in April showed Mr. Talarico leading Mr. Cornyn by 3 points, 44% to 41%, and Mr. Paxton also leading by 5 points, 46% to 41%.

What issues are Texas Republicans concerned about heading into May’s runoff elections?

The Houston poll asked voters what issues they thought were most important in the Republican primary runoffs, including election integrity, immigration and border security, inflation and the cost of living, jobs and the economy, Second Amendment rights and violent crime.

Here are the results:

  1. Immigration and border security — 33%.
  2. Inflation and cost of living – 25%.
  3. Election integrity — 22%.
  4. Employment and the economy — 14%.
  5. Second Amendment rights — 4%.
  6. Violent crime – 2%.

Forty percent of voters cited immigration and border security issues as reasons for voting for Paxton, and 31% cited election integrity.

Those who voted for Cornyn cited inflation and the cost of living (36%) and jobs and the economy (19%) as reasons for their decision.

Mateo Rosiles is a Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and local Texas newspapers. Do you have any news tips for him? Email him: mrosiles@usatodayco.com.

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