Previous early forecasts generally suggested a slightly below-average Atlantic season, but noted high forecast uncertainty.
Can scientists still really trust El Niño forecasts?
Scientists have warned that while El Niño reduces the likelihood of hurricanes, storms can still form because the ocean stores excess heat.
With just over a week until hurricane season, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters will release the federal government’s official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Thursday, May 21st.
This is the first time federal weather forecasters have released their predictions for hurricane season, after months of forecasts by private forecasters and researchers. These outlooks address the confusing combination of warmer ocean temperatures (which could boost hurricane activity) and developing El Niño conditions (which could suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean).
Early forecasts generally suggest a slightly below-average Atlantic season, but also note high forecast uncertainty. Experts say people in hurricane-prone areas should generally ignore these forecasts. Even a season of low hurricane activity can still be deadly and dangerous.
When will NOAA release its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
The forecast will be announced at a press conference at 11 a.m. ET on Thursday, May 21, at the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida.
Speakers will present expected activity for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. It will also provide advice on how the public can prepare for the hurricane season, which begins on June 1 and ends on November 30, as well as factors that can affect hurricane development (such as the looming El Niño).
Expected activity for the central and eastern Pacific hurricane season will also be announced.
Based on weather records from 1991 to 2020, a typical year averages about 14 tropical cyclones, seven of which turn into hurricanes.
Forecasters in Colorado are predicting a below-average Atlantic hurricane season with a total of six hurricanes, only two of which are expected to become major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
Several factors will affect the outlook, including sea surface temperatures, the development of the El Niño pattern in the Pacific, its relationship with the atmosphere, and the timing of other planetary waves that affect hurricane season.
El Nino holds the key
El Niño can have a significant impact on the intensity of the hurricane season in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
“El Niño typically increases updrafts over the tropical Pacific Ocean, which causes stronger upper-level wind shear and sinking air across the tropical Atlantic Ocean,” Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami, said in a recent email to USA TODAY. “This typically reduces the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, especially in the Caribbean Sea.”
Conversely, “El Niño years typically result in increased activity in the eastern Pacific,” Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s chief seasonal hurricane forecaster, said in a recent email to USA TODAY.
Why sea surface temperature is important
The forecast also takes into account changes in sea surface temperatures, as rising ocean temperatures can affect the formation of tropical cyclones and hurricanes. In some cases, research shows that rising ocean temperatures can offset some of the effects of El Niño.
Sea surface temperatures are currently above normal in many parts of the Hurricane Basin.
In the Niño region along the equator in western South America, temperatures are near record highs for this time of year. The same is true for global average ocean temperatures and the entire Gulf of America, renamed from the Gulf of Mexico by the Trump administration.
Doyle Rice and Dinah Boyles Pulver are national correspondents for USA TODAY, covering weather and climate. Please contact drice@usatoday.com and dpulver@usatoday.com.
