This chaotic climate change force is known to increase hurricane activity in some places and reduce it in others. Here’s what you need to know as new forecasts warn of a possible “very strong” El Niño.
Can scientists still really trust El Niño forecasts?
Scientists have warned that while El Niño reduces the likelihood of hurricanes, storms can still form because the ocean stores excess heat.
El Nino is “soon” and could reach “very strong” levels later this year, according to a forecast released May 14 by climate scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
This and other predictions are causing alarm around the world, as this pattern has a major impact on global weather. This includes dramatic effects on hurricanes. The number of storms forming in the Atlantic basin will be suppressed, while the number of storms in the Pacific will increase.
According to NOAA forecasts, El Niño is likely to occur soon (82% chance within the next few months) and last into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27 (96% chance from December 2026 to February 2027).
And even if the strongest parts of El Niño don’t arrive until the end of the year, it can still be strong enough during hurricane season (June to November) to influence the number of storms that form in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Does El Niño cause hurricanes?
That’s not really the case, but if you follow hurricane season forecasts, it’s easy to see why it looks that way.
El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricanes by increasing wind shear, which tends to tear apart developing storms. In the Pacific Ocean, the opposite occurs as wind shear decreases during El Niño.
“Simply put, El Niño increases hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Basin and suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin,” NOAA said in an online report.
Once the season begins and El Niño officially forms within a month or two, it could be good news for those along the Gulf Coast and East Coast, but potentially worrying news for residents of the southwestern United States and Hawaii, where more hurricanes are likely.
But in the Atlantic Basin, forecasters are warning people that “all it takes” is for the worst hurricane season to occur.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which surface ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average.
The name means little boy or Christ child in Spanish. El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s when unusually warm water appeared in the Pacific Ocean around Christmas.
The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as El Niño (Southern Oscillation), and scientists refer to it as ENSO. This cycle moves back and forth between warm and cold ocean water in areas along the equator of the tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña is characterized by lower than average seawater levels in the region.
Typical El Niño effects
The World Meteorological Organization said in a recent statement that El Niño affects temperature and rainfall patterns in different regions and typically has a warming effect on the Earth’s climate. “Thus, the combination of a strong 2023-2024 El Niño event and anthropogenic climate change caused by greenhouse gases made 2024 the hottest year on record,” WMO said.
WMO says El Niño is typically associated with increased rainfall in southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and parts of central Asia, and drought in Australia, Indonesia and parts of South Asia.
What are the chances of a “strong” or “very strong” El Niño occurring in the second half of 2026?
“There is a two-in-three chance of a ‘strong’ or ‘very strong’ El Niño event occurring between November 2026 and January 2027,” said Michel Rollou, a physical scientist and NOAA’s ENSO team leader. “Please note that this is the best forecast based on the information we currently have. However, these probabilities will change in the coming months depending on the El Niño situation. There is still enough uncertainty that it would not be surprising to see a weaker outcome,” she said.
Additionally, NOAA’s forecast states that “strengthening El Niño events do not guarantee strong impacts, but only increase the likelihood of certain impacts.”
Will this year be the year when Hawaii will experience more hurricane damage?
El Niño tends to intensify the hurricane season in the Pacific Ocean, including the central and eastern Pacific basins. However, most storms in the Pacific do not make landfall. In fact, according to NOAA, only about a quarter of hurricanes and tropical storms in the eastern Pacific make landfall, with most turning west and staying over the ocean.
Hawaii can also be affected by central Pacific storms, but storms rarely hit the state. On average, Hawaii is hit by a tropical cyclone about once every 10 years.
“The central Pacific Ocean often has a busy season during El Niño events, but there is no science that can specifically predict the impact of a single phase of ENSO,” said Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s chief seasonal hurricane forecaster. “Tropical impacts to the Southwest are often due to moisture surges into the Gulf of California and the West Coast.”
However, he added, “Their timing and amounts are not something NOAA predicts more than two to four weeks out.”
What does this forecast mean for U.S. weather?
Brad Pugh, a meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, said El Niño does not have a strong impact on summer temperatures, but the Pacific Northwest is likely to experience warmer-than-historically normal temperatures.
“During the winter, the effects are even stronger,” Pugh said. “Temperatures are likely to be above normal in the northern United States, and above-normal precipitation is likely to be in the Southeast and Gulf Coast.”
Contributor: Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAY.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, focusing on weather and climate.
