While early forecasts may suggest fewer hurricanes, forecasters say an erratic and dangerous weather pattern is still likely.
What are the chances of a Super El Niño occurring this year?
Forecasters predict that El Niño could replace La Niña by late summer 2026, potentially changing the shape of the hurricane season. But what does that actually mean?
If you’re someone who wants to take this year’s hurricane season a little lighter because the early season outlook shows fewer storms than usual, here’s what a weather and disaster expert has to say.
They worry that these high-profile predictions about hurricane season can lead to a false sense of security and unpreparedness.
“It doesn’t matter what the seasonal outlook is, we only need one storm,” said Brad Reinhart, senior hurricane expert at the National Hurricane Center. Reinhardt is one of the center’s experts who urges people not to pay attention to comments about the seasonal outlook from social media pundits who emphasize the gloomy influence El Niño could have on storm forecasts.
The 2026 hurricane outlook shows conditions trending towards normal or below normal due to the possibility of El Niño in the Pacific, but that’s not all, forecasters said. There may not be as many storms, but strong storms can still form quickly and intensify, as has happened in the past.
Even though El Niño has been going on for years, “we still have the potential for very high-impact Atlantic hurricanes,” Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan told USA TODAY. “No matter what the seasonal forecast is, the risk from hurricane impacts exists every year.”
Especially given that no hurricanes will make landfall in 2025, the center’s forecasters are concerned that complacency is leaving them unprepared for emergency kits, evacuation plans, and other important potential life-saving measures to take in advance.
Rob Young, a professor and director of the Developed Coastline Research Program at Western Carolina University, thinks the whole concept of hurricane season forecasts is “problematic.”
The outlook is “as far as I’m concerned, the highest-profile information release related to a natural disaster, but it’s information that should not be used to change in any way the way we approach the tropical cyclone season,” Young said.
“When the forecast comes out that there may be fewer storms than usual in the Atlantic this year, what are people supposed to do with that information?” Young asked. In his view, “they should ignore it.”
“Preparing for Hurricane Andrew or Katrina every year is a one-time event,” he added.
El Nino hurricane and seasons
It is well documented, dating back to studies in the late 1990s, that El Niño can have a significant impact on Atlantic hurricane damage and activity. Hurricane formation can be suppressed by strong wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean and stirred by patterns of warmer-than-normal ocean water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
But research does not rule out the risk of hurricanes making landfall in the United States. Information about trend patterns is useful for those who manage risk based on probabilities, but is less important for others.
Hurricane Andrew, which occurred during the transition period between Pacific patterns, made landfall twice in the Bahamas and twice in South Florida, reaching the state’s southeast coast at Category 5 strength. It ended up making landfall for the fifth time near Morgan City, Louisiana, with winds of over 160 mph.
Andrew is said to have killed 65 people and caused more than $25 billion in damage, including destroying more than 25,000 homes and damaging more than 110,000 homes in southern Miami-Dade County.
The longest-running seasonal outlook, created by a team led by Colorado State University senior research scientist Phil Klotzbach, always includes a list of years with conditions similar to those expected across the ocean this season. One season the early April outlook showed was 2023, which turned out to be a very active year with 20 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. That was the year Hurricane Idalia hit Florida just south of the Big Bend as a major hurricane.
Colorado’s forecast for this season calls for a 32% chance of a major hurricane with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or more making landfall along the U.S. coast.
“Barfight Rules”
Factors that can influence seasonal outcomes include the speed of transition to El Niño, ocean temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and rainfall in Africa’s Sahel region. For example, research shows that conditions in the Pacific Ocean from the previous winter can leave an impact on the Atlantic hurricane season during the transition period between the changing patterns known as El Niño Southern Oscillation.
Meteorologists say warmer-than-average ocean temperatures can cause storms to intensify quickly and become more dangerous. That’s one reason Young and others worry about people living along and inland from the Gulf of America, formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico.
Young and former Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Craig Fugate said the Gulf Coast region, home to some of the most destructive storms in history, is a wild card in any season.
In an April 12 LinkedIn post, Fugate wrote, “Gulf plays by the rules of Barfight.”
“Lukewarm water. Short fuse. Bad attitude,” Fugate wrote. “Then a storm develops, and all of a sudden you have a great ‘below average’ season climbing up the wall like a cat in a thunderstorm. That’s why, from an emergency management standpoint, we wouldn’t change anything.”
The Colorado State team addressed concerns about complacency in its outlook and presentation.
The forecast for early April states, “We predict a below-average probability of major hurricane landfall along the continental United States coastline and the Caribbean.”
The research team said: “It is of great interest how global ocean and atmospheric features are currently positioning with respect to the likelihood of an active or inactive hurricane season next year.” The seasonal outlook is a means to “satisfy the public’s curiosity and draw attention to the hurricane problem.”
But then comes additional information that hurricane experts hope people don’t get fooled.
It added: “As with any hurricane season, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one landfall to turn an active season into an active season. Regardless of the expected activity, thorough seasonal preparations are required.”
Dinah Boyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about violent weather, climate change and other news. Contact dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or dinahvp.77 on X or Signal.
