How the NCAA Tournament expansion will reshape college basketball
Let’s take a look at how an expanded NCAA Tournament could change March Madness, conference strategy, and the future of college basketball.
While some may still not believe it, Duke put all doubt to rest late last week by announcing a new streaming deal with Amazon.
College sports are not run by universities, presidents, conference commissioners, or hundreds of athletic directors.
College sports are run and constantly stimulated by the free market.
Coaches, players, programs. All available to the highest bidder.
No price is too high, no deal is too ugly.
Consider the unusual conspiracy that officially took place within the ACC. Not too long ago, the ACC was rearranging the deck chairs of a sinking ship while its two biggest football institutions (Florida State and Clemson) were actively A.) suing the league and B.) trying to secede from the league.
The ACC put out that fire by changing the way the Media Rights Fund is paid out, allowing those at the top to earn more and those at the bottom to earn less. But it was football and the head of the snake.
This is Duke Basketball, one of the few true blueblood programs that can sign its own deal with a streaming site. But the three-game deal with Amazon, which the ACC and its television partner ESPN granted in exchange for their own rewards (future neutral site, ESPN-owned games), is not in question.
The problem is that Duke basketball is no different than coaches and players in college sports who take advantage of the free market to make cash while taking advantage of one program over another.
Like Miami quarterback Darian Mensah, who found out months ago that he was the only quarterback left on the board, knew Miami needed an elite player at the most important position on the field. So he jumped into the transfer portal at the 11th hour, and Miami ultimately paid Mensah’s buyout from Duke, making him the highest-paid player in college football.
One power conference coach told USA TODAY Sports that Miami paid an “excess” $12 million to match that contract in both buyouts and new contracts.
But guys, athletes are not boogeymen. Check out Nebraska coach Matt Rhule. He is the latest in a long line of coaches preaching undying love, only to sell their agents the idea that they might leave for a suitable offer.
Rhule allegedly pushed Penn State last fall with the idea of bringing him back to his alma mater to replace James Franklin. So Nebraska responded by adding more money and years to his contract.
Rhule is 19-18 in three seasons at Nebraska (including 0-8 against top-ranked teams). If the 2026 Huskers continue in a similar situation to Ruihir’s first three seasons, it would cost him $63.36 million to fire him without cause.
Why isn’t Duke basketball getting in on the action? And the scary thing for the rest of college sports is when will Ohio State football make its move?
When Alabama and USC and Texas and Michigan say, “No more,” we’re tired of Mississippi State and Rutgers and Vanderbilt and Maryland being on our court. We’re going to take away the media rights and see how much someone is willing to pay for it.
Don’t joke. Amazon, Netflix, Hulu, Apple, or any streaming service worth keeping up with their commercial-filled garbage will spend millions and millions and millions of dollars on Ohio State’s seven home games.
Live sports are the only guaranteed winners in broadcast TV and streaming. Do you want to stream live sports at Ohio State? The king of revenue.
And what is the Big Ten going to do? Tell Ohio State you’re either with us or you’re out of the league.
Four words: There will be suitors.
Ohio State’s value in this environment would likely be triple the $91.5 million the Big Ten paid the Buckeyes in 2024-25. The Ohio State vs. Michigan game alone is worth $100 million a year.
It would be financially unwise for the Big Ten to kick Ohio State out of the conference when the current media rights agreement ends after the 2029-30 season. So the next logical step would be a deal.
Welcome to leveraging the free market, everyone.
A deal to keep Ohio State (or Alabama, Texas, Michigan, USC, etc.) would look like this for the Big Ten and SEC: Bluebloods will get significantly more money and loligagars in the back will get significantly less.
This is no different than player salaries in the era of new transfer portals and free player movement, or coach salaries over the past 30 years where nine-win seasons led to outrageous contract extensions.
The scramble for money started with the coaches, moved on to the players, and eventually got paid for their important roles in the game. That will eventually transfer to universities, which will no longer be able to shoulder the burdens of people who cannot carry them themselves.
Why should we use Ohio State’s brand and power to complement the Minnesotas of the world? If you don’t see this happening, and much sooner than you think, you’re the same guy who thinks you can put the player movement toothpaste back in the tube.
That person will leave this world in two years. Ohio State football would still exist and thrive decades later.
Duke acted wisely and wisely. The door was then opened for all other universities to follow suit.
No price is too high, no deal is too ugly.
Matt Hayes is a senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X @MattHayesCFB.
