Charles Franklin talks about voting in the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election
Charles Franklin, director of public opinion research at Marquette University School of Law, talks about his plans to vote in the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election.
- According to the latest polls, Francesca Hong is leading the Democratic primary for governor in Wisconsin with 27% support.
- In the general election showdown, Republican Tom Tiffany is leading or leading Hong among various voter groups.
- Almost half of Democratic primary voters, 45%, remain undecided three weeks before the election.
- The poll was conducted before recent upheavals in the race, including Sara Rodriguez dropping out and David Crowley re-entering.
MADISON – Democratic socialists running in battleground states that President Donald Trump won the past two elections are leading in the Democratic primary for governor, a poll showed on July 22.
But a Marquette University Law School poll shows 37-year-old Francesca Hong trailing or tied with Republican Tom Tiffany in the closely watched Wisconsin gubernatorial race, which experts say is a key issue in the 2026 midterm elections.
Hong, a three-term state representative, had a 26% approval rating among primary voters, while former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Burns had 15%. When people who supported Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez, who resigned from the race after the poll was conducted, were assigned their second choice to another Democrat, Hong’s support rose to 27% and Burns’ support rose to 18%.
However, looking at the Democratic Party field, Mr. Tiffany leads Mr. Hong by 43% to 40% among registered voters, and is tied with Mr. Hong at 44% among voters in the general election.
“What this tells us is that it’s a very close race, as we like to see in Wisconsin,” Charles Franklin, head of polling at Marquette University School of Law, said on July 22. “There’s some variation from candidate to candidate, but it’s not a huge difference.”
The survey also found that 45% of Democratic primary voters have not yet chosen a candidate.
Poll: Most voters have a negative view of democratic socialism
Across the country this year, progressive candidates like Hong, a three-term state representative, defeated more establishment liberals in Colorado, New York and Washington, D.C.
Following New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani’s stunning victory last year, many on the political left are harnessing new-found energy around promises like affordable housing, universal child care and lower utility costs.
But these key victories have been largely confined to deep blue congressional districts and urban centers, rather than purple-leaning battleground states. Skeptics within the party are raising even bigger questions about how Democratic Socialist Party of America candidates will fare in areas with large numbers of independent and moderate voters.
For example, a survey in Wisconsin found that when asked about their views on democratic socialism, 49% of registered voters expressed a negative opinion. Only 25% had a favorable opinion and 26% had no opinion.
But in a July 17 interview with journalist David Sirota, Hong insisted the question of electability was a red herring, saying it was “dangerous” for the party to misjudge how his camp would win over new voters.
“Our supporters are people who have never been involved in politics before,” she says. “We’ve been battling disillusionment and apathy that keeps[Democrats]losing and failing to grow a broader coalition.”
Wisconsin gubernatorial preferred candidates reenter primary elections
The poll comes days after the Wisconsin Democratic primary race collapsed, with Rodriguez showing signs of momentum and a collapse of his campaign at the same time. She has the support of Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who returns to the race after a surprisingly tumultuous week.
Crowley has the support of Gov. Tony Evers, who is in his third term.
The confusion left the public with only a limited view of the true election situation when Marquette University Law School pollsters were on the campaign trail from July 8 to 16, or when Crowley left and Rodriguez’s campaign collapsed. The investigation ended with Rodriguez leaving the race and before Crowley could return to racing.
Without Rodriguez in the race, Evers cabinet member Joel Brennan would have received the support of 5% of voters, and state Sen. Kelda Royce would have received the support of 2% of voters. This is the fourth Marquette University Law School poll of Democratic primary voters led by Hong.
“When we first asked in October, I believe (Hong) was number one with 6%. Then in February, she was number 1 with 11%. In March, she was at 14%. And now she’s at 26%. So she’s the frontrunner in all of this. But it’s not a huge share because the undecided percentage is so large,” Franklin said.
“On the other hand, consistency is also important, and we’ve seen that consistency in her performance throughout this period.”
The poll was conducted among 838 registered voters and had a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The margin of error within the Democratic sample was +/- 6.1 percentage points.
