Arizona is one of the battleground states where candidates aligned with Trump are under intense scrutiny.
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Congressman Andy Biggs entered the race for the Republican nomination for Arizona governor on July 21, further cementing President Donald Trump’s near-perfect performance in the 2026 Republican primary.
Now comes a tougher challenge for the five-term conservative firebrand who sought to defeat Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs. It’s about convincing the independents he needs without moving too far from the White House.
Arizona is one of the nation’s most competitive battleground states, but experts in several Republican primaries this year have warned that candidates backed by President Trump will face an even tougher fight in the general election.
Some of Mr. Biggs’ fellow Republicans believe the former House Freedom Caucus chairman is too extreme to defeat Mr. Hobbs.
The gubernatorial race was described by experts as a “hugely close race,” but given Biggs’ polarizing views, including skepticism that President Joe Biden could not have won the 2020 election, the race is tilted in Hobbs’ favor.
The Grand Canyon State also provides a roadmap for control of the U.S. House of Representatives, where Democrats are targeting at least three Republican-held seats.
Scottsdale state Rep. Alex Kolodin has won the Republican nomination for Secretary of State. He has garnered widespread attention for his claims that U.S. elections, including those in Arizona, are unfair and “rigged.”
And in a sign of the Trump administration’s desire to focus on concerns about voter integrity in key battleground states this fall, the Justice Department sent federal observers to the state on July 21.
Here are the key takeaways from Tuesday’s contest:
Biggs changes policy ahead of high-profile gubernatorial race
Like many of this year’s Republican primary winners, Mr. Biggs benefited from having one of the most conservative voting records on Capitol Hill as well as being close to Mr. Trump.
“I don’t want to lose him from Congress. You know, I’m torn about it,” Trump said at a Turning Point USA rally in Phoenix in April. “We don’t want to lose him, but he’s going to be a great governor.”
That loyalty extended to the five-term lawmaker, who voted against certifying the 2020 election results, but began shifting gears several weeks ago to win over independents and skeptical Republicans after polls showed Biggs easily won the primary.
In an interview ahead of the July 21 contest, Biggs emphasized that he is working with the late Sen. John McCain to close loopholes in the Amber Alert system for Native American tribes. He also pointed to another 2018 proposal he co-sponsored with Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), now the Democratic minority leader, that would have required more reporting from lobbyists.
“I have a record of working with people across the aisle to accomplish important things,” Biggs told USA TODAY.
Hobbs and Democrats plan anti-Trump avalanche for November
Biggs’ campaign said in a strategic memo that it believes Hobbs is “particularly vulnerable” given his narrow election in 2022.
But while the president and his allies hope to unseat Democratic governors in battleground states, forecasters have changed their predictions from “predict” to “leaning toward Democrats.”
Mr. Biggs’ role as a key figure in the 2020 election sham plot is likely to be re-litigated during this election, which is set to be a major referendum on the president, and Mr. Biggs has supported unpopular initiatives such as starting a war with Iran that sent gas prices soaring.
“Arizona is a battleground state, so we know this race is going to be close no matter what,” Hobbs, who won by less than 1 percentage point in 2022, told USA TODAY. “I’m going to win every vote by showing Arizonans how I prioritize what’s best for our state over partisan politics, including lowering costs, securing our borders, and bringing good-paying jobs here. That’s how I can win this election.”
Department of Justice dispatches federal election observers
As Arizona voters rush to the ballot box, the Trump administration announced it will send election “monitors” to polling places in three counties to monitor for election fraud.
In a July 21 post on X, Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon said, “Every citizen, and only the citizen, should go out and vote in a federal election today, confident that the government will help.”
Christopher Webber, director of the University of Arizona Voter Project, said the Justice Department’s decision to send election observers to the state during the primary election is “highly unusual.”
But Bill Gates, executive director of the Institute for Democratic Dynamics at Arizona State University, said the practice is “nothing new.”
“Their presence is a routine part of elections under bipartisan administrations and is intended to ensure compliance with federal voting rights laws,” he said.
The Justice Department’s decision mirrors one made during the Biden administration, which sent observers to four counties during the 2024 presidential election. Arizona election officials told the USA TODAY Network shortly before voting ended that the election was “business as usual” and there were no reports of anything unusual.
But the move comes as Democrats and their allies become increasingly nervous about President Trump’s demands for an overhaul of the U.S. election before the midterm elections and his continued false claims of widespread election fraud.
In a prime-time address this month, the president made broad and inaccurate claims about widespread vulnerabilities in the voting system. Although President Trump exaggerated the level of Chinese interference in the 2020 election, he used the main part of his speech as a rallying cry for Congress to pass the SAVE America Act, a strong voting bill that requires proof of citizenship when registering to vote.
Arizona is the only state to require proof of citizenship for voter registration in local and statewide elections, which was introduced through a ballot initiative in 2004. But in a July 7 letter to Arizona’s secretary of state, Dillon threatened to prosecute election officials who “knowingly register non-citizens” on the state’s voter rolls.
Democrats flip Congress and pass Arizona
The president’s approval ratings seem to be dropping every week, with a new Economist/YouGov poll released this week showing just 36% of Americans approve of the president’s job performance.
But that doesn’t guarantee Democrats good luck this fall. A Washington Post-Ipsos poll from July found that when it comes to which party voters will support in the next Congressional election, they favor Republicans 48% to 45%.
If Republicans want to maintain their slim House majority, it means defending a number of seats in battleground districts, with three seats in Arizona targeted by Democrats. The biggest factor is the race to replace Republican David Schweikert, who lost to Biggs in Tuesday’s gubernatorial primary, in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District.
Trump won the district, which includes northeast Maricopa County, by 3 points in 2024, but Biden won it by 1.5 points in 2020.
The president’s choice is Republican Jay Feeley, a former NFL Pro Bowl kicker who is looking to use his name recognition to help defeat former state Rep. Joe Czaplik and businessman John Trobaugh.
Democrats are considering between former state Rep. Amish Shah and former TV news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, who has been endorsed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the political arm of House Democrats. But Mr. Shah leads Mr. Galan-Woods by about 10 points in about 76% of the precincts.
The DCCC has also listed Arizona’s 6th Congressional District as a possible candidate, hoping to unseat Republican Rep. Juan Siscomani, who won the district by less than 1 percentage point in 2024. Joanna Mendoza, a Marine Corps veteran, ran unopposed in the Democratic primary for the district.
Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, currently represented by Republican Rep. Eli Crane, is also a target for Democrats. Experts are less optimistic about President Trump’s chances in the region, given that he won the region by a 15 percentage point margin two years ago. However, political observers note that Democrat Jonathan Nez, a former Navajo Nation president, outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris in this race.
It’s also notable that four-term Rep. Greg Stanton defeated his opponent, data center-leaning activist Kai Newkirk, drawing the ire of big-money AI groups, in a growing trend of more progressive Democrats defeating longtime incumbents.
2020 election conspiracy resurfaces in Arizona Secretary of State race
Arizona’s secretary of state is the chief executive responsible for maintaining voter registration databases and overseeing elections, a key position in the 2028 presidential election.
That fall’s election will once again be a proxy battle over the 2020 election, as Republicans have selected state Rep. Alex Kolodin, a Scottsdale lawyer, as their candidate.
Kolodin was part of the legal team that tried to eliminate mail-in voting and prevent Arizona’s 11 electors from voting for Biden. He was sanctioned by a state court in 2023 for his role in these cases. As a state legislator, he has proposed stricter voting rules, including eliminating the state’s early voter list.
In 2022, Democratic incumbent Secretary of State Adrian Fontes defeated Republican Mark Finchem, a prominent supporter of Trump and who denied Biden’s victory, by more than 4 points.
During that campaign, Fontes ran as an outspoken “defender of democracy,” criticizing President Trump’s continued fixation on the election six years ago while resisting the administration’s repeated efforts to obtain Arizona’s voter rolls.
Contributors: Josh Meyer, Ronald J. Hansen, Drew Pittock
