Is J.D. Vance the Republican candidate? Or Marco Rubio? Voters are looking to Donald Trump for guidance heading into 2028, but the president has not committed.
Trump supporters debate Vance vs. Rubio ahead of 2028 election
Attendees at Trump rally will consider either J.D. Vance or Marco Rubio for 2028.
WASHINGTON – Vicki Schwartz’s first vote in Ohio was for J.D. Vance.
She had just moved to the state from California, where she taught public school. After working for a San Francisco-based investment firm, he tried his hand at politics by running for the U.S. Senate.
The 70-year-old woman, who lives outside Columbus, said she has read Vance’s best-selling memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy,” and has just read two chapters of his new book. Vance impressed her. She spoke passionately about her appearance on “The View” this month.
Still, Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are conflicted about who they will vote for in 2028 if they are both seeking the Republican nomination to replace President Donald Trump. “It’s like flipping a coin and whoever wins the flip is going to run for president or be the first candidate,” said Schwartz, who attended President Donald Trump’s June 24 rally on the National Mall.
Will approval from the president help her decision? Of course, she says.
But as Republican voters look to Trump for guidance, he remains steadfast and pressure is mounting on Vance to solidify his position as the must-win Republican candidate by early next year.
In conversations with more than a dozen sources close to the White House, allies of the president and vice president said they were not convinced that Trump would choose Vance as his 2028 nominee. The president has been asking people around him what they think about Vance and Rubio. Mr. Rubio is a more experienced politician and has become one of Mr. Trump’s most trusted advisers on international issues.
Sources close to the White House say this is the ultimate game of “The Apprentice” and that Trump still feels there is plenty of time to make a decision.
Mr. Vance has not said publicly whether he plans to run for high office. However, he is attracting attention as he is laying the groundwork for a possible bid through promotion of his new book “Communion” and interviews related to the Iran peace negotiations.
He insisted he was focused on helping Republicans win the November midterm elections and excelling in the vice presidential position.
“When you’ve been in the job that the American people chose for you for less than a year and a half, I don’t think you need to think so much about a job that might last for years,” Vance said in an interview with USA TODAY in June.
“It’s a little more understandable.”
Mr. Vance’s early performance as vice president appears to support his prospects.
Nasim Nabily, 43, a business owner from Landover, Maryland, said he’s “not as tough as Trump, but I’m a little more outspoken.” Vance is knowledgeable about policy and exudes confidence, she said.
Like many Republicans who spoke to USA TODAY at the Trump rally, Nabilly said he was familiar with “Hillbilly Elegy” and had seen him defend the administration’s policies on television.
But they knew nothing more about the Ohio native who converted to Trumpism and Catholicism shortly before running for office.
Logan Hottel, a recent high school graduate from Staunton, Virginia, identified Vance as a former Marine. The 18-year-old said he is inclined to support Vance and wants to learn more.
“Communion” continues the tradition of presidential candidates writing books that help them define themselves to voters. In one passage, Vance says he supports banning businesses at the state level on holidays like Thanksgiving so workers can be with their families. The policy proposal represents a rare resolution between Mr. Vance and Mr. Trump, who advocates cutting federal holidays, and could help Mr. Vance appeal to independent voters.
In an interview with USA TODAY, Vance said he supports the right of workers to form private unions and bargain for higher wages, a position that Trump also does not accept. He described himself as both an economic populist and a religious conservative, consistent with his Christian-Catholic beliefs in the need for a distribution of resources that serves the common good.
“I don’t think that economic populism is in any way inconsistent with religious conservatism. I would say that the tradition of the Christian church is very supportive of a certain kind of economic populism,” he said.
But even as the vice president seeks to build relationships with voters, he also needs to continue to prove himself to President Trump.
Donald Trump, the decisive factor
JD or Marco? This is a question Mr. Trump has been privately asking those around him for at least a year. At meetings, in the Oval Office, at Mar-a-Lago. He recently conducted a public poll of a large group of law enforcement officers at a dinner in the Rose Garden.
“Who likes J.D. Vance?” Trump joked. “Does anyone like Marco Rubio? Well, that’s a good ticket,” he quickly added. “That doesn’t mean you have my support under any circumstances.”
The 2028 lineup has not yet been finalized, but Republican speculation has centered on the two highest-ranking Cabinet members.
Two people close to the White House said the president is focused on who has the best chance of winning. And he’s been eyeing Rubio, a former Florida senator and 2016 presidential candidate, and thinks he might have a better chance than Vance.
Mr. Vance has long been seen as more closely aligned with MAGA supporters, while Mr. Rubio has faced questions about his work on immigration reform and his hawkish history. But Trump, who has gone from rival to close ally, has clearly established himself.
An Emerson College poll of Republican voters released in May found Mr. Vance’s approval rating at 36% and Mr. Rubio’s approval rating at 35%, a statistical tie after accounting for a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points.
Another person close to the White House said Trump has a long history of polling those around him about decisions he may or may not make in the future, adding that the president always tries to gauge public sentiment. He often gets it through pointed questions.
Another person said he was not looking down on Mr. Vance, adding that he may simply be trying to keep the vice president on his toes and motivated to pursue his policies. The person added that Mr. Vance remains the default candidate and that Mr. Trump’s decision to entrust him with the deal with Iran that will make or break his presidency is a sign of Mr. Vance’s influence.
Iran could be key to Vance’s candidacy
Mr. Vance’s role as chief fundraiser for the Republican National Committee helped him get in front of another key constituency: donors, making him the face of the midterm election campaign.
But Mr. Rubio has run for president once before, has a longer track record with donors, and has more experience in politics and foreign policy, and Mr. Vance has actively sought to improve his integrity in that area.
One person close to the White House said Mr. Vance appeared to be auditioning for Mr. Trump’s support in negotiating the Iran deal, a charge denied by friends of the vice president.
President Trump has been paying attention to and criticizing his own performance. “I thought J.D. Vance was great this morning,” President Trump said on June 22, after Vance traveled overseas to meet with Iranian leaders. “I watched his press conference from Switzerland. He’s a very smart guy. He did a great job.”
But just days earlier, on June 17, the president told reporters that if the deal changed direction, it would be Vance’s responsibility.
One person close to the White House said a poor deal would be a death sentence for Mr. Vance. If there is a perception that it is not a victory, it will be a major political vulnerability for him, the official added.
Mr. Trump is eager to keep people guessing and make a good impression on him, and he has repeatedly waited until the last minute to make endorsements. If Mr. Trump does the same with Mr. Vance, it could give other candidates a chance.
Mr. Rubio has said he wants to remain in his current position until the end of Mr. Trump’s term, and has publicly indicated that he would not run if Mr. Vance runs. But one official said Mr. Rubio’s actions, such as the one he took to the podium at the White House in May, tell a different story.
Trump has suggested multiple times that they run together on one ticket. He did not say who should come out on top.
Three sources close to the White House said Sen. Ted Cruz, who declined to comment, is also considering running, and other big-name senators may also appear.
Vance “can wait longer than anyone else”
Trump repeatedly demonstrated during the early midterm elections that his support could determine the outcome of the Republican primary. The MAGA base rallied behind nearly every congressional candidate he supported.
Paul Ayers, a 73-year-old former real estate agent who came to Washington from Phoenix to attend the president’s rally, is a Trump supporter and said that while Vance and Rubio are “both really good,” he doubts the vice president’s organizational skills. He points out that Trump’s choice for Iowa governor, Randy Feenstra, lost in the Republican primary to a candidate backed by Turning Point USA.
Regarding his support for Trump, he said, “I think I’ll support Mr. Vance no matter what.”
Vance said he plans to get together with his wife, Usha, after the midterm elections, but declined to say exactly when he would make an announcement.
“I didn’t really think about it,” Vance told USA TODAY when asked if he thought he would have to do so by the end of the year.
Vance’s team has not voted or organized in any of the early states and does not believe he will need to make a decision in 2026.
Republican operatives with experience in presidential campaigns have varying opinions on how long Vance can wait. Early jockeying could begin immediately after the midterm elections, but candidates with stronger name recognition could have a longer runway.
“By virtue of his official position, Mr. Vance is a key figure without having to announce it,” said Mike Duhaime, a Republican consultant and former RNC political director. “He can wait longer than anyone else.”
Republican strategist Matt Gorman said Vance is helped by his incumbency advantage, as he can travel on Air Force 2 and is exempt from laws restricting political involvement of U.S. officials.
And while Mr. Trump’s selection of Mr. Vance as his running mate was effectively an endorsement of his ability to hold the top job, Mr. Gorman said, “Frankly, I don’t expect Mr. Trump to anoint Mr. Vance the day after the midterm elections.”
“Vance is going to go out and he’s going to earn it.”
Contributor: Zach Schermele
