In the aftermath of a painful gerrymander loss, three Virginia Democrats in Congress told USA TODAY they remain optimistic about their party’s chances in November.
Democrats face major redistricting setbacks in Tennessee and Virginia
Democrats face redistricting setbacks following a Virginia Supreme Court ruling and newly approved Tennessee congressional maps.
WASHINGTON – As Republicans advance their national redistricting wars, Democrats are adamant that they may be behind, but they are far from defeated.
Concerned about President Donald Trump’s low polling numbers and rising gas prices, there is stubborn optimism among the minority party in Congress, despite the court blows it has suffered over the past two weeks.
First, the conservative-majority Supreme Court struck down the Voting Rights Act. The landmark decision set up state legislatures across the South to immediately begin sweeping black-majority districts that have been key to the Democratic Party’s national success ahead of the impending midterm elections.
The Virginia Supreme Court subsequently released a separate voting map that would give Congressional Democrats up to four additional House seats in the upcoming midterm elections.
The loss was painful. Democratic lawmakers in Washington reacted very strongly, with some discussing a long-term plan to encourage the Virginia General Assembly to abolish the state Supreme Court by lowering the retirement age for judges, according to the New York Times.
When the political dust settled, they emerged from closed-door meetings with varying degrees of confidence about the path forward. Ultimately, many still believe that worsening fuel prices, growing concerns about the cost of living, and Trump’s unpopularity could wrest full control of the Capitol from Republicans.
Until recently, Blue’s victory seemed almost a foregone conclusion. Success at the polls this fall could help Democrats regain political foothold in Washington, effectively blocking President Trump’s remaining second term in the White House.
Many people vehemently agree that Democrats are still favored to take back the House. “It’s getting more and more difficult.”
“I’m very optimistic that we can get a majority in November, but it’s not going to be easy,” Rep. Suhas Subramanyam, D-Virginia, told USA TODAY. “The field is just as important as the people who play on it.”
Tim Kaine: “Virginia Democrats are running out of time”
In interviews with USA TODAY, three Democratic members of Virginia’s congressional delegation said they believe their party can flip Republican seats in the state, even when looking at old maps. They also threw cold water on last-minute Hail Mary plans, including the ouster of state Supreme Court justices.
“My understanding is that members of Congress have already said no,” said Rep. Jennifer McClellan, referring to the state Legislature.
The Democratic Party of Virginia has filed an emergency petition with the U.S. Supreme Court to allow redistricting to proceed. The plan is widely expected to go nowhere, and the state’s new map will almost certainly be off the table in the 2026 election.
Sen. Tim Kaine, a former Richmond mayor, said Virginia Democrats are running out of time.
“We’re six months away from Election Day,” he told USA TODAY. “We don’t have time to consider all kinds of options.”
After a recent week of traveling around the commonwealth, Kaine said he heard from many Virginians who were dissatisfied with the Trump administration’s policies. That fear alone is enough to overcome gerrymandering setbacks, he said.
“Let’s just go win the race,” he said. “People are not happy with the way the president and his enablers are treating this country.”
Two or even three of those seats could be contested. And the Republican most at risk of defeat, Rep. Jen Quiggans, is embroiled in an election scandal. In a May 11 radio interview, she echoed racist comments the host made about Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is Black. She later said she did not condone the comments made by the commentators and did not apologize.
Maryland: Democrats’ next target
Republicans are wasting no time capitalizing on the U.S. Supreme Court’s Voting Rights Act ruling. They are moving quickly to eliminate the only Democratic seats in South Carolina and Tennessee. Despite legal issues, some estimates suggest the party could pick up about a dozen more Republican-leaning seats in the midterm elections.
Independent political analysts predict that Democrats could still come out on top.
“This is a redistricting deficit that we hope Democrats will overcome,” Kyle Kondik, editor-in-chief of the nonpartisan Sabbat newspaper Crystal Ball, said in a May 14 analysis. “But it is also a sufficient advantage for Republicans that, under the right circumstances, it could allow them to defend their House majority.”
Last year, a Republican effort to redistrict Utah’s state backfired, creating a gift for Democrats and creating one safe blue seat. In February, the Supreme Court also gave the green light to gerrymandering in California, creating five more blue seats.
Between now and November, Maryland may be the only Democratic-led state that could theoretically redraw electoral districts. And even then, that’s “only if all the stars align,” House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar told reporters on May 13.
Maryland Governor Wes Moore is publicly pushing state lawmakers to eliminate the state’s only Republican congressional district. But time is of the essence, and he cannot make the case to voters the way the Democratic governor of Virginia can.
A one-seat advantage may not sound like much, but in a Congress that currently essentially functions (or at least attempts to function) on a two-vote margin, it could make a meaningful difference.
“It’s going to help level the playing field with what’s happening in the southern states,” McClellan said. “At this point, we need to look at everything we can do.”
Zachary Schermele is a Congressional reporter for USA TODAY. You can email us at zschermele@usatoday.com. Follow him on X at @ZachSchermele and on Bluesky at @zachschermele.bsky.social.
