Iran war looms over summit meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping

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WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump is unlikely to get the “big, fat hug” he envisions from China’s notoriously tough leader Xi Jinping when he arrives in Beijing for a pompous visit and talks on Iran.

Firm handshakes and ceremonial red carpets are more like it. There were also many twists and turns regarding US military support for Taiwan.

“We’re smart and working together very well! Isn’t that better than fighting????” President Trump said of authoritarian leaders in April. “He’s a great gentleman. I think he’s a great guy,” President Trump told reporters on May 11.

President Trump has prioritized relationships with world leaders, viewing them as “one of his special skills and one of his unique strengths,” said Alexander Gray, who served as Asia director at the National Security Council in Trump’s first administration and then as chief of staff.

But Gray said, “The president is also very aware of the fact that what Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party want is 180 degrees different in many ways from what the United States wants.”

China is the United States’ biggest economic rival, and Beijing is closely aligned with Washington’s longtime enemies Moscow and Iran, which are directly or indirectly involved in armed conflicts.

Since the coronavirus pandemic exposed supply chain vulnerabilities, U.S. administrations and lawmakers from both political parties have taken aggressive steps to wean the U.S. from Chinese-made products. For much of last year, President Trump and President Xi engaged in an ugly trade war.

“You can respect someone as a leader, but you can also become their competitor, or even their enemy,” said Kelly Ann Shaw, one of the negotiators for the U.S.-China trade deal during the Trump administration.

Current and former U.S. officials say President Trump wants a stable relationship with China, but at the same time the U.S. is preparing for long-term economic competition with China.

The Chinese government also stressed its intention to “expand cooperation and manage differences in the spirit of equality, respect and mutual benefit” ahead of the next meeting.

Iran is a top priority for President Trump

War in Iran and keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed will be on President Trump’s menu, but the US leader declared a ceasefire on “massive life support” and called Iran’s latest proposals to end the conflict “garbage.”

China is Iran’s largest trading partner, and Iran has allowed large numbers of Chinese-flagged ships to pass through the blockade. China has sought to walk a neutral line amid ongoing tensions and has echoed Pakistan’s efforts to mediate between the United States and Iran, calling for a “comprehensive ceasefire” in recent days.

On May 12, when President Trump was asked what message he had for Xi Jinping regarding Iran, he said, “We’re going to have a long conversation about this. To be honest, I think Mr. Xi has handled it relatively well. If you look at the blockade, we’ve had no problems. They’re extracting a lot of oil from that area, and we haven’t had any problems.”

A U.S. official previewing the trip for reporters said Trump has spoken with Xi multiple times about China’s support for Iran and Russia, and those conversations are likely to continue.

Leaders are also expected to announce agreements to purchase aircraft and agricultural products, and possibly a joint committee on trade and investment. More than a dozen CEOs, including Tesla Inc.’s Elon Musk, Apple Inc.’s Tim Cook and Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg, have been invited to accompany Trump on his trip, according to a White House list.

Trump also said he would address the detentions of Chinese pastor Ezra Jin Mingli and businessman Jimmy Lai, former publisher of the Hong Kong-based independent newspaper Apple Daily.

President Trump said of Lai on May 11, “The people want him out, and I want to see him out, so I’m going to bring him up again.”

President Xi expected to elevate Taiwan

For China, the potential sale and delivery of $25 billion worth of arms and other defense equipment to Taiwan is a top priority.

Taiwan’s legislature approved the spending last week after a long battle. The United States has approved $11 billion worth of weapons but has not shipped them. President Trump signaled this week that he was prepared to block future sales.

“I’m going to have that discussion with President Xi. President Xi would prefer that we don’t do that,” Trump said on May 11. “That’s one of the many things I’m going to discuss with President Xi.”

Gray, who served as chief of staff on the National Security Council during Trump’s first term, said he believes there is not a remote possibility that the president will change U.S. policy toward Taiwan.

“One of the things that a president does is, before he goes into these public affairs, he puts things on the table for people to speculate on,” Gray said.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is visiting China with President Trump, said last week that the U.S. position has not changed, Gray said.

“So, just as nothing has changed over the last 10 years President Trump has spent in public life, there is no reason to think anything will change this time either.”

Broadly speaking, Beijing wants the United States to backtrack on its Biden-era pledge to support Taiwan in the event of a military conflict and stick to its “one China” policy. Taiwan considers itself independent, but China aims to reunite it with democratically ruled territory. U.S. intelligence agencies previously said Mr. Xi had instructed the military to prepare for an invasion as early as 2027.

President Trump said in August 2025 that President Xi told him he would not invade Taiwan during his term in the White House. According to Reuters, intelligence agencies further assessed in March that China has no current plans for invasion and wants to take control of the island without using force.

In the Oval Office ahead of his trip, President Trump suggested that the prospect of a military conflict that could involve the United States and regional allies like Japan was enough reason to maintain positive relations with China.

“I have a very good relationship with President Xi because I don’t want that to happen,” Trump said.

Competition, not conflict

Elsewhere in Washington, military assets have been moved in response to the Iran war, raising concerns that the sheer volume of weapons launched against the Middle Eastern country could seriously set the United States back in a future military conflict with China. Pentagon officials argue that it is the only adversary that can compete with the United States.

“My concern is that all the assets, missiles, forward-deployed forces, diplomatic capital that Iran uses are not currently in the Indo-Pacific region,” Sen. Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, told reporters on May 12. “The Chinese side is very aware of that.”

Two days ago, Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona said on “Face the Nation” that he was shocked and disturbed by the Pentagon’s accounting of military spending in the Iran war.

“That means the American people will be less safe, whether it’s in a conflict with China in the Western Pacific or elsewhere in the world,” Kelly said.

According to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the U.S. military may have spent more than half of its weapons inventory, which is key to defending against China’s missile capabilities, in attacking Iran. About 2,500 Marines stationed in Japan were sent to war several months ago. Since the USS George H.W. Bush replaced the USS Gerald R. Ford in the Middle East, half of the military’s aircraft carriers and associated warships are engaged in the Iran war.

“We have patiently built up these capabilities over time,” said Kurt Campbell, who served as deputy secretary of state under former President Joe Biden, referring to military weapons and personnel transferred from Asia.

“It’s been surrendered. It’s all gone back to the Middle East. Once you lose it, it’s very difficult to get it back,” he told reporters at a May 8 briefing.

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