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Food prices are rising, but not all foods are rising, according to a new price analysis of some common staple foods.
CouponFollow analyzed monthly consumer price index average food price data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics over the past two years to find out what’s happening to the food market basket.
Overall, the analysis showed that prices of 11 out of 25 common food items have declined in the past two years, but those savings have been offset by food items that have increased in price. USA TODAY exclusively revealed the data for the first time.
What food items have become more expensive?
According to the analysis, protein and beverages had the largest increases.
The top 5 products with the highest growth from February 2024 to February 2026 are:
- coffee: The price per pound of freshly ground roasted coffee increased from $6.09 in February 2024 to $9.46 in February 2026, an increase of 55.2%.
- lettuce: The price per pound of romaine lettuce increased 38.6% from $2.57 to $3.56.
- Ground beef: 100% ground beef increased 31.3% from $5.13 to $6.74 per pound.
- steak: USDA Choice Boneless Sirloin increased 21.1% from $11.72 to $14.19 per pound.
- orange juice: A 16-ounce can of frozen concentrate rose 15.4% from $4.21 to $4.86.
David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University, said there is wide variation in price changes across categories.
Ortega said there were several “shocks” that affected the agri-food industry, including the devastating impact of chicken flu on the egg market, climate change-induced droughts that hit coffee and fresh produce production, and tariffs imposing additional costs on heavily imported categories.
“These shocks affect products in different ways, so when you look at each item one by one, you get such a mixed picture. But the end result is that families are still paying more at the register,” Ortega told USA TODAY.
Ortega said coffee and beef prices are likely to remain high. Average coffee prices have risen 55% in two years, he said, due to continued crop failures in Brazil and Vietnam, as well as U.S. tariffs on major producing countries.
Ortega said Brazil’s 2026 harvest is expected to be even better, but it will be months before prices for primary products come down enough to be on store shelves.
The average price of ground meat is up 31%, Ortega said, due to strong consumer demand even as the U.S. cattle herd is at a 75-year low. He said beef prices are likely to remain high until 2027 or 2028.
Which groceries have become cheaper?
Here are the top 5 products with the biggest price decreases from February 2024 to February 2026.
- egg: 12 large Grade A eggs had the biggest decline of any item, falling 16.6% over two years, but were still 73% higher than their February 2020 prices. In February 2024 it will be $3.00 and in February 2026 it will be $2.50.
- Potato: A pound of white potatoes costs 10.8% less, from 97 cents to 87 cents.
- tomato: The price per pound of field-grown tomatoes fell 10.8%, from $2.13 to $1.90.
- bread: The price per pound of white bread fell 7.8% from $2.01 to $1.85.
- pasta: The price per pound of spaghetti and macaroni fell 7.6%, from $1.43 to $1.32.
Daily meal price changes
Clay Carey, senior trends analyst at CouponFollow, said consumers can mitigate some of the price increases through their dietary choices.
For example, the cost of making taco night for a family of four increased by 18.6% from $20.79 in February 2025 to $24.65 in February 2026.
“Switching to cheaper protein or eating meat-free at least once or twice a week can make a noticeable difference,” Cary told USA TODAY.
An egg and toast breakfast in 2026 fell 9% from $5.57 in 2024 to $5.07.
But that same egg and toast breakfast cost $7.48 in February 2025, at the peak of the bird flu egg crisis.
Since then, egg prices have fallen significantly.
Homemade biscuit meals were the most affordable and stable diet tracked in the study, with an ingredient cost of $2.13, down 7% from $2.30 in 2024.
In addition to deciding which foods to buy, Cary said it’s helpful to stack up ways to save money.
“Using coupons, buying groceries under store brands (if they are similar), buying in bulk (staples) at reduced price levels where available, and comparing the ‘unit price’ of each item can help create a series of small actions that lead to long-term financial benefits,” he said.
Betty Lin-Fisher is a consumer reporter for USA TODAY. Contact her at blinfisher@USATODAY.com or follow her at @blinfisher on X, Facebook and Instagram and @blinfisher.bsky.social on Bluesky.. Sign up for our free The Daily Money newsletter, breaking down complex consumer and financial news. Subscribe here.
