Federal weather forecasters have announced that the current El Niño event may be one of the most powerful in historical records dating back to 1950.
How El Niño will impact this year’s Atlantic hurricane season
Alex DaSilva monitors tropical developments in the Atlantic Ocean. Dry air and wind shear make tropical systems less likely. DaSilva monitors the bay for potential activity.
Federal weather forecasters have significantly increased the likelihood that another El Niño will grow into a historically powerful phenomenon that will affect weather around the world.
Specifically, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center announced on July 9 that there is an 81% chance that a “very strong” El Niño will occur by the fall. The probability of a “very strong” event occurring in June was 63%.
There is also a 97% chance that the current El Niño phenomenon will continue until early spring of 2027.
“Only seven El Niño events have been classified as very strong in the past 75 years, so this El Niño event is expected to be one of the strongest in the historical record that we monitor,” Michel La Roux, a physical scientist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in an email to USA TODAY.
What is El Niño and why is it important?
El Niño is part of a larger climate cycle caused by water temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean. Natural climate patterns influence weather around the world and create different conditions around the world.
It is attracting a lot of attention because it has the potential to dramatically increase droughts, heavy rains, and heat waves in some regions. Past El Niño events have resulted in some of the hottest years on record, including a record-breaking global average temperature in 2024.
According to research, it could also have a surprising impact on the global economy.
However, not all effects of El Niño are heinous. This pattern is also expected to reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, potentially bringing a milder winter (and lower heating costs) to millions of Americans.
hurricane reducer
NOAA said stronger events like this one could tip the odds more heavily in favor of expected impacts in the U.S. and around the world.
One big impact is that this El Niño could significantly reduce the number of hurricanes and tropical cyclones expected in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially began on June 1st. So far, only one short-lived cyclone has occurred (Tropical Cyclone Arthur).
In early July, hurricane forecasters reduced the number of named storms expected in the Atlantic Ocean to nine, well below the average of 14.
El Niño can also cause intense heat waves, droughts, and floods around the world.
“Not all El Niños are the same. Each one is unique and has its own impact on our weather,” NOAA National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in a statement.
What does El Nino mean for weather in the United States?
El Niño tends to be strongest during the winter, and its global impact is typically most pronounced during the Northern Hemisphere winter, NOAA said.
“During a typical El Niño winter, the jet stream over the North Pacific tends to move south, providing a storm path for the southern tier of the United States,” NOAA said in a statement. “The southward shift in the storm’s track will also bring drier conditions to the northern Rocky Mountains and valleys of Ohio and Tennessee.”
When it comes to temperatures, El Niño often causes winters in the northern United States to be warmer than usual.
Typical effects of El Niño include:
- Strong upper-level winds tend to suppress storm and hurricane development in the Atlantic basin, whereas weak winds tend to promote tropical development in the eastern and central Pacific basin.
- Stormier weather is more likely in the southern United States, and El Niño winters are more likely to bring both rain and snow.
- Some areas of the United States, especially the West Coast, may be at increased risk of storm surge flooding.
- Changes in the migration of fish and other marine life. Warm-water species migrate north, and cold-water species migrate further north or deeper into the ocean. These behavioral changes affect growth, survival, and reproduction.
- Past El Niño events have promoted harmful algae blooms along the U.S. West Coast.
It is important to keep in mind that even a “very strong” El Niño does not guarantee a guaranteed impact. Because the outlook for the season is so uncertain, unexpected events can and do occur, Rollu said in an email to USA TODAY.
When was the strongest El Niño event on record?
Based on NOAA’s official ENSO index dating back to 1950, the strongest El Niño event was the winter of 1982-1983, when the Relative Ocean Niño Index (RONI) reached +2.5 degrees Celsius, Leroux said.
RONI is NOAA’s new official measure of El Niño and La Niña, which compares temperatures in the Pacific Ocean with other tropical regions to better understand the real-world impact of climate patterns in a warming world, the National Weather Service said.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, focusing on weather and climate.
