New forecast cone to be unveiled at 2026 National Hurricane Conference in Florida
The 2026 National Hurricane Conference in Orlando is where the Hurricane Center will showcase some of its new products.
After two years of experimental operation, the updated track forecast cone graphic took center stage at the National Hurricane Center this summer.
The new graphics, released when the first tropical storm forms, are one of several changes the hurricane center is making for the Atlantic season, which begins June 1. A member of the Hurricane Center’s staff spoke with USA TODAY at the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando to talk about the changes.
Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said the goal is to continue to improve communication about hazards and risks with the public and emergency managers.
The widely recognized five-day track diagram, often referred to as the “cone of uncertainty,” has been in use since 2002. However, it was often misunderstood.
It only showed the likely path of the storm center and signs along the coastline where tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings were in effect. The full extent of strong winds, rain and other impacts, including inland areas where watches and warnings are in place, is not shown. Cone revisions have been the subject of great debate and pondering among the hurricane science community.
new cone graphic
New graphics add inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, shaded with lighter colors. “This is to better communicate the wind danger, and to better communicate that the danger can extend outside the cone,” Brennan said.
The new graphic was released two years ago as an experimental tool for public comment on its effectiveness in communicating storm risk, said Robbie Berg, a warning coordination meteorologist at the Hurricane Center.
“In the first year, we had questions about the legend and colors we were using, so we fixed that,” Berg said. After the second year, it seemed to be generally accepted, he said.
“Being able to provide surveillance and warning from the coast to inland is a more typical situation,” he said. The new graphics will also be available in an interactive version, allowing viewers to zoom, pan and save images, he said.
The goal is to move into a continuous improvement process, Berg said. “We don’t want to just make changes and leave them there for 10 to 20 years. We want to constantly update and make new changes.”
Another new cone graphic is waiting in the wings
This year also sees the launch of an updated version of the Hurricane Center’s cone graphic, another experimental version. Staff hopes that by changing two key methods, they will be able to better communicate the risks and probabilities associated with the arrival of a storm.
The old cone graphic and the one used this year are drawn using a series of concentric circles along the forecast trajectory to show where the center of the storm is expected to move two out of three times, based on forecast errors over the past five seasons.
“I don’t think people really understand that,” Berg said. This could be misinterpreted as indicating the size of the storm, its impact, or its absolute path to the center, rather than a 67% probability.
The circle turns into an ellipse in the experiment graphic. This is because their research shows that flat circles or ellipses are more effective at indicating potential prediction errors both along and across tracks. And that’s based on a 90% probability, Berg said. This means that only once in 10 times will the center of the storm move outside the ellipse, making the cone a little larger, but the prediction that the center will “stay within the cone” is more reliable.
“The error is actually greater along the track, which means it’s harder to get an accurate picture of the speed of the storm compared to how far it’s going to the right or left,” he said. He likens this to using GPS maps to estimate driving time for a trip. He said a digital map maps out the route and people usually follow it, sometimes with some detours, but arrival times can vary significantly depending on traffic conditions.
If the forward speed is off by just 5 knots (5.7 mph) over a 120-hour cumulative period, along with a five-day forecast, the gap between when the storm is predicted to arrive and when it actually arrives is much larger, Berg said. Tests of the new project show it is “a better representation of what real storms are likely to cause.”
communicate the risks
John Cangiarosi, senior hurricane expert at the Hurricane Center, said all products are “looking pretty good.” But the impact always falls outside the “cone”.
“The bottom line is we keep telling people you can’t just use this map,” Kangialosi said. “We want you to focus on the big picture.”
That’s part of the motivation to develop storm surge watches and warnings across the Caribbean and Pacific Ocean, said Cody Fritz, director of the center’s storm surge unit. They are issuing the first storm surge watches and warnings and peak storm surge forecasts for Hawaii this year.
He says people tend to “focus so much on the center of the course that they don’t really recognize the dangers that lie outside the course, sometimes hundreds of miles from the course.”
According to Berg, the cone is like a table of contents. “That’s it. Just reading the table of contents doesn’t give you a complete explanation. You need to see other products in person to understand more about the risks.”
Dinah Boyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about violent weather, climate change and other news. Contact dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or dinahvp.77 on X or Signal.
