No matter how expensive it is, it’s not Valentine’s Day without chocolate.

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“Life is like a box of chocolates,” Forrest Gump memorably said. “You never know what you’re going to get.”

But Valentine’s Day is simply a day to ask for a box of sweets. According to the National Confectioners Association (NCA), 92% of Americans hope to receive chocolate for Christmas, and about half plan to treat themselves if they don’t think they can get it, even though the price of chocolate continues to rise due to continued inflation throughout the candy supply chain.

Unprecedented price increases in 2025 pushed the price of U.S. branded chocolate up 12%, according to data from the Wells Fargo Agriculture and Food Research Institute. That’s because West Africa, which produces about 70% of the world’s cocoa, continues to suffer from climate problems, disease and aging trees.

Producer prices have fallen since then, but it will take some time for those declines to trickle down the supply chain to the inventories that consumers shop. David Branch, sector manager at Wells Fargo Research Institute, doesn’t expect these lower prices to hit shelves until mid-2026.

“Despite rising prices, consumers are still indulging in luxury this Valentine’s Day,” Branch told USA TODAY in an email. “Chocolate remains popular, even if it means omitting the heart shape to save money.”

Valentine’s Day’s ‘most iconic’ type of chocolate

In fact, the heart-shaped box is the “most symbolic” of all Valentine’s Day options, says the NCA, and 55% of Americans think receiving a box of chocolates at Christmas is the warmest gesture, ahead of the 7% who think the honor should be bestowed on the heart in a personal conversation.

Meanwhile, despite Forrest Gump’s insight into the unknown elements inside each box of chocolates, about 43% of Americans refer to the guide that comes with most boxes before choosing a treat. Almost a quarter of us confess to nibbling on the corner of chocolate, and 10% say they bite the bottom.

Valentine’s Day is one of the “big four” seasons in the candy industry, which also includes Easter, Halloween and winter holidays, according to the NCA. Together, these holidays account for 62% of the $54 billion confectionery industry in 2024, with Valentine’s Day accounting for 12.4% of that total.

An NCA spokesperson told USA TODAY in an email that regardless of price, consumers still rely on candy and chocolate to celebrate important days like Valentine’s Day.

“Importantly, most consumers consider chocolate and candy to be an affordable treat and appreciate their special role in sweetening memories and bringing friends and family closer together. On Valentine’s Day, sharing chocolate and candy is really about love, connection and joy,” the spokesperson said.

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