NFL Week 15 Overreaction
USA TODAY’s Prince Grimes breaks down the best stories from Week 15 in the NFL.
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USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates on the NFL’s evolving playoff picture each week during the 2025 regular season. It usually starts on a Sunday afternoon and continues through the rest of the week (Monday and Thursday games, if applicable, or Saturday games, and I plan to watch them once the holidays are over).
What the hell happened? What does that mean? As the seven-team brackets for each conference begin to take shape, what will be the relevant factors (and perhaps the tiebreakers)? Everything will be explained and analyzed leading up to the postseason berths being decided on Sunday, January 4th.
Here’s how things stood as we completed week 15.
x − 1. Los Angeles Rams (11-3), NFC West leader: They narrowly avoided Sunday’s game against the Lions and became the first team to qualify for the playoffs. LA has home-field advantage and an inside track for a first-round bye, mostly because the Rams’ loss to Seattle in Week 11 remains pivotal for now. However, the rematch will take place on Thursday night. remaining schedule: Seahawks games, Falcons games, Cardinals games
2. Chicago Bears (10-4), NFC North leader: How packed is the NFC? After a narrow loss in Week 14, the Bears fell from first place in the conference to seventh place. Sunday’s win and Green Bay’s loss moved the Da Bears back into second place overall. remaining schedule: vs. Packers, at 49ers, vs. Lions
3. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5), NFC East leader: A decent win against the Raiders gave them the breathing room they needed. A win at Washington on Saturday would keep the district title in Philadelphia for another year. remaining schedule: Commanders game, Bills game, vs. Commanders game
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7); NFC South Leader: I hope coach Todd Bowles (expletive) pays close attention this week. After suffering their fifth loss in their past six games and dropping to .500 on Thursday night, Sunday’s loss to Carolina put the Bucs back in the lead. The Bucks’ one-game advantage in the common-game tiebreaker is now the difference between them and the Panthers. Even if they beat Carolina twice, the Bucks will still win the NFC South. remaining schedule: Panthers game, Dolphins game, vs. Panthers
5. Seattle Seahawks (11-3) Wildcard #1: Colts QB Philip Rivers narrowly missed returning to the NFL for the first time in five years, but they still managed a two-point victory. All three of the Hawks’ losses have come against NFC opponents, including two in division, making them unfavorable losses in a tiebreaker scenario. But splitting the season series against the Rams on Thursday would actually catapult Seattle to the top of the NFC heap. remaining schedule: vs. Rams, Panthers, 49ers
6. San Francisco 49ers (10-4), second wild card: They are just behind the Rams and Seahawks for first place in the NFC West, but are still only half a game out of the No. 7 seed. remaining schedule: Colts, vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks
7. Green Bay Packers (9-4-1); Wildcard #3: DE Micah Parsons was injured on Sunday, and the Pack’s standings fell as well. The loss in Denver dropped them from the 2nd seed to 7th. remaining schedule: Bears vs. Ravens vs. Vikings
8. Detroit Lions (8-6), on the hunt: The blowout loss to the Rams left them 1.5 games out of the expected playoff spot. Still, Detroit remains within striking distance of a wild-card spot and possibly the NFC North championship. remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, Vikings, Bears
9. Carolina Panthers (7-7) in the hunt: Had they defeated the Saints on Sunday, they would have needed one win over Tampa Bay to win the NFC South. But the Panthers turned heads in New Orleans. Carolina and the Buccaneers will decide this on the field in two meetings from Weeks 16 to 18. remaining schedule: vs. Buccaneers, vs. Seahawks, Buccaneers
10. Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1) on the hunt: Sunday night, they suffered a crushing loss to the Vikings and were almost eliminated. Dallas needed to win every game and wanted the Eagles to lose all of them for “America’s Team” to win the NFC East. remaining schedule: vs. Chargers, Commanders, Giants
x − 1. Denver Broncos (12-2), AFC West Leader: Great Sunday, becoming the first team in the league to win 12 games and the first AFC team to qualify for the playoffs. New England’s loss also increases the possibility that the Broncos will finish as the No. 1 seed. remaining schedule: vs. Jaguars, at Chiefs, vs. Chargers
2. New England Patriots (11-3), AFC East leader: After a 10-game hiatus, they were unable to win the division on Sunday, losing valuable ground in their quest for the No. 1 seed. But the Pats are still in the driver’s seat to win the AFC East. remaining schedule: Ravens, Jets, vs. Dolphins.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4), first in the AFC South: A win puts them ahead of rising Houston. remaining schedule: Broncos vs. Colts vs. Titans
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) AFC North Leader: They attacked Miami on Monday night, eliminating the Dolphins from postseason contention. No matter what else happens, they will dominate the Ravens and Pittsburgh will secure the division. remaining schedule: Lions, Browns, vs. Ravens
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4), Wild Card No. 1: They completed the Chiefs’ season sweep on Sunday, officially eliminating the three-time defending AFC champions from playoff consideration. The Bolts now have six wins out of seven. They have a one-win advantage (8 wins, 2 losses) over Buffalo in AFC play. remaining schedule: Chiefs, Cowboys, vs. Texans, Broncos
6. Buffalo Bills (10-4), Wild Card No. 1: Following Sunday’s win over Foxboro, they still have a shot at winning their sixth consecutive AFC East title. remaining schedule: Browns, vs. Eagles, vs. Jets
7. Houston Texans (9-5), third place wild card: They have won seven of eight games, including six straight. remaining schedule: vs. Raiders, at. Chargers, vs. Colts
8. Indianapolis Colts (8-6); In the hunt: Now, in the hands of the 44-year-old Rivers, they face a steep climb back to relevance — their 7-1 start already starting to seem like ancient history. Rivers put up a valiant effort Sunday in his first NFL game in nearly five years, but fell just short. And the Colts’ schedule has no breaks in the remaining games. remaining schedule: vs. 49ers, vs. Jaguars, at Texans
9. Baltimore Ravens (7-7) In the hunt: Sunday’s shutout at Cincinnati could be key in the AFC North race. remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, Packers, Steelers
Week 16 NFL Playoff Decision Scenario (incomplete)
New England qualifies for the playoffs with:
▶Win
Philadelphia wins NFC East title:
- Will you win?
- dallas loss
▶ New York Giants
▶ Arizona Cardinals
▶ New Orleans Saints
▶ Tennessee Titans
▶ Las Vegas Raiders
▶ Commander Washington
▶ Atlanta Falcons
▶ New York Jets
▶ Cleveland Browns
▶ Cincinnati Bengals
▶ Kansas City Chiefs
▶ Minnesota Vikings
▶ Miami Dolphins
× – qualify for the playoffs
yes – clinched division
z- Secure home field advantage and win a 1st round bye
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