Based on the past few years, September 10 is the typical peak of Atlantic hurricane season, but things are atypical quiet.
September is the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season
Concerns have increased mainly in the increase in hurricane risk in the US Gulf from mid- to late September.
Where are all the hurricanes? So far, there was only one in the Atlantic (Erin). This is far from forecasts of up to 10.
This week is especially lively. Based on the past few years, September 10th is a typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. However, this year, a quiet week is expected as tropical cyclones are not expected for the next seven days, according to the latest advice from the National Hurricane Centre, released on September 8th.
“This week, the model does not show any potential areas for development. We headed towards the peak of traditional hurricane season this Wednesday (September 10th),” WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry told the Substack Post.
Calling it a “ghost town,” weather trader meteorologist Ryan Maue said in an email to USA Today that “the Atlantic tropics have once again hanged out.”
Why is it so quiet?
“Dry, dusty air will keep the Atlantic unusually quiet during the climatological peaks of Wednesday’s hurricane season,” said Alex Dasilva, an expert at Accuweather Hurricane.
Among other factors, if the tropical air is dry and dusty, a hurricane does not easily form, predictors said.
The Atlantic may be quiet for the next seven to ten days, Maue said until healthy tropical waves emerge from Africa, which can survive hostile environmental conditions such as dry air, high stability, dust and wind shear.
However, Acuweather predictors warned that “clusters of showers and thunderstorms organized along the Gulf and South Atlantic coasts could evolve into tropical storms, particularly mid- to late September,” with Gulf water temperatures above historic averages.
“The cold front off the southeast coast could potentially spin up some tropical development this weekend or early next week,” Dasilva said. However, strong destructive wind shear from the southeast coast reduces the risk of tropical development. ”
Looking ahead
“By this weekend, dry air and Saharan dust should begin to be kicked out of major Atlantic developments by this weekend,” according to Dasilva. “Atmospheric conditions that encourage tropical development are expected to return later in the month.”
Colorado State University forecasters were also bullish about the outlook for the storm later this month. In a two-week forecast from September 3-16, Colorado State University forecasters predicted activity will recover over the coming weeks.
“The Global Model Ensemble is quite aggressive as it has potential layers in the Eastern Atlantic and Western Caribbean/South Bay due to the development of additional tropical cyclones from days 8 to 14,” the CSU forecast said.
Was your pre-season prediction wrong?
According to forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, most pre-season forecasts seek an unusually active year, allowing storms of as many as 19 names, including as many as 10 hurricanes. So far, six names of storms have formed, only one of which has been Hurricane (Erin).
“My predictions for this year are 14 storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes (near average), but that might be generous.”
“Given how quiet the peak season remains, this year is likely to end at the bottom of the preseason forecast,” said Andrew Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami Ocean and Atmospheric Research Cooperative Research Institute, on September 8.
“Outside of the flooding caused by early tropical storms and the effects of fringes from Erin, so far, it’s been a year that seems truly amazing if it continues,” he said. “But there’s still a way to go.”
