The president is in a difficult situation due to soaring gasoline prices and declining approval ratings. However, the Indiana primary showed continued strength within the Republican Party.
Does gerrymandering risk disenfranchising some voters?
A total of seven states now have new congressional district maps. Will Florida favor Republicans?
He’s still my boss.
President Donald Trump is beset by soaring gas prices, declining approval ratings and an unpopular war with Iran. But in the May 5 Indiana primary, he showed his continued control over the Republican Party by slamming six state senators who did not heed his demands to redraw the lines of Congress.
Of the seven Republican senators who drew his ire, five lost their party’s nomination to challengers supported by the president, and one race was still too close to decide.
It was an unlikely test in a contest that usually attracts little attention, and it was costly.
“Trump may not be as popular in my district as he once was, but he’s still overwhelmingly popular,” one sitting senator, Spencer Deary, told CNN during vote counting.
“Good luck to the great Indiana Senate candidates who are running against people who don’t care about our country or maintaining a majority in Congress,” President Trump posted on Truth Social the same day. “Let’s see how the RINOs do tonight,” he said, referring to so-called Republicans in name only.
The stakes in the primary for the Indiana House — a surefire red flag no matter what — were relatively low. The campaign focused more on loyalty to Trump than policy differences.
Tuesday’s return means most Republican officials are likely to be reluctant to publicly break with Trump, no matter what predicament he faces. His command over his own party, especially obedient Republicans in Congress, has been a major source of his ability to impose tariffs, wage war, and redesign the landscape of Washington with little challenge or oversight.
However, the situation could change in November’s midterm elections, when Democrats are expected to win a majority in the House of Representatives and likely win seats in the Senate.
Next, efforts to oust Massey and Cassidy
Over the next two weeks, Trump will face further challenges in other Republican primaries.
In the Louisiana primary held on May 16, Julia Letlow, the Senate candidate endorsed by President Trump, received a boost from support, but the race remains deadlocked in a three-way race. Trump’s target, Republican incumbent Bill Cassidy, could still advance to a runoff.
Polls for Kentucky’s May 19 primary show Trump’s favorite House challenger, Navy SEAL veteran Ed Galine, trailing incumbent Republican Rep. Thomas Massey, one of the few congressional Republicans prepared to publicly challenge Trump.
In the Georgia primary, also held on May 19, President Trump’s gubernatorial candidate, Lieutenant Governor Bert Jones, trailed health care CEO Rick Jackson in statewide polls, with just 24% of Republican primary voters supporting him.
But no matter how you look at it, Trump remains the loudest voice within the Republican Party.
Republican officials and candidates remain more likely to worry about the president in private than to criticize him publicly. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducted April 24-28 found that 85% of Republican voters approve of his job, down slightly but still healthy.
Additionally, by a 2-to-1 margin (65% to 34%), Republicans say the party should follow President Trump’s lead rather than go in a different direction.
But only 25% of independent voters, who usually contest competitive elections, support Mr. Trump. Overall, his approval rating was a dismal 37%, and his disapproval rating was 62%, the highest of any presidential term so far.
Indiana, a friendly field for battle
In the case of Indiana, Trump could not have chosen a more friendly battleground.
In the 2024 presidential election, he defeated Democrat Kamala Harris by double-digit landslides in six of the seven contested state Senate districts, including by more than 30 points in three of them. He won District 7 by seven points.
In Tuesday’s primary, only incumbent Greg Good succeeded in defeating Trump-backed challenger Brenda Wilson. Five of his colleagues lost: Dan Darnuk to Trevor de Vries; Linda Rogers to Brian Schmutzler. Travis Holdman to Blake Fichter. Jim Buck to Tracy Powell. And Greg Walker to Michelle Davis.
In the seventh election, votes were still being counted for incumbent Deery and challenger Paula Copenhaver.
It was an expensive exercise. Aimpact, which tracks campaign advertising spending, estimates that $13.5 million has been spent on Indiana Senate races this year. This is immeasurably more than the previous election, when total campaign spending was less than $1 million.
“Money is the milk of campaigns, so when you’re competing for $1.3 million, like in my current campaign, the issues weren’t talked about, and they should be,” Buck told USA TODAY Network’s Indianapolis Star. “Rather, it’s retribution for December 11th.”
Today was the day the Indiana Senate rejected President Trump’s redistricting plan.
