Xavier Becerra surges ahead of crowded field in California gubernatorial primary

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The latest polls ahead of the June 2 primary show the former California attorney general and HHS secretary leading with 28% support, followed by Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton.

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WASHINGTON – Democratic front-runner Xavier Becerra has widened his lead in California’s governor’s race days before the June 2 primary, according to a hot new poll that says the race for second place is essentially a toss-up.

The latest and final Emerson College Poll/California Internal Politics poll, released May 30, shows Becerra, a former California attorney general and U.S. Health and Human Services secretary in the Biden administration, currently leading among voters with 28% support.

This is a sharp increase for Mr. Becerra from previous polls and significantly outpaces his Democrat Tom Steyer’s 22% and conservative Republican commentator Steve Hilton’s 21% in a crowded race.

Becerra is seeking to become California’s first Latino governor since the late 19th century, replacing current Governor Gavin Newsom, whose term ends in January. California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks told USA TODAY earlier this month that he was impressed with Becerra’s rise.

Becerra’s candidacy had slumped earlier this year, with polls repeatedly hovering in the single digits, but in April, former California congressman Eric Swalwell withdrew from the gubernatorial race over allegations of sexual assault and misconduct, which Becerra denied.

Since Emerson’s latest poll in mid-May, Becerra’s approval rating has increased by 9%, Steyer’s approval rating by 5%, Hilton’s approval rating by 4% and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco’s approval rating by 1%. Democrats Katie Porter and Matt Mahan saw their approval ratings drop by 5% and 3%, respectively.

Another new statewide poll released May 27 by the Public Policy Institute of California also showed Becerra making steady gains.

The poll shows Mr. Becerra leading with 23%, followed by Mr. Hilton with 20%, and Mr. Steyer, a progressive billionaire entrepreneur and environmental activist, with a 15% lead over the state’s independent, or “jungle” primary.

The top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to the general election in November. Hilton is a former Fox News contributor and has been endorsed by President Donald Trump.

Mr. Becerra also served in Congress for more than 20 years, representing California in the House of Representatives from 1993 to 2017.

A third recent Echelon Insights poll released on May 22 showed Hilton, the poll’s sponsor, in the lead with 25% of likely voters participating in the race.

Becerra leads, but battle for second place remains close

Just two weeks ago, Mr. Emerson’s poll showed Mr. Becerra tied with Mr. Hilton at 19%, with Mr. Steyer close behind at 17%.

Emerson surveyed 1,000 likely voters May 27-28 and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. This means that Mr. Steyer and Mr. Hilton are effectively tied, and 4% of those surveyed are still undecided.

When undecided voters were asked who they would support, Mr. Becerra’s approval rating was just 28%, followed by Mr. Hilton and Mr. Steyer, both at 23%.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said this means both Steyer and Hilton have a path to the November general election.

“Hilton stands to benefit if Chad Bianco’s support weakens by Election Day,” Kimball said. “Mr. Steyer’s path to a runoff depends on mobilizing young voters while limiting Mr. Becerra’s further rise. Mr. Becerra’s expanding coalition could siphon support from Mr. Steyer.”

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