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Despite importing only 8% of its oil from the Middle East, the United States is feeling the pain at the gas pumps amid the Iran war. So why are gas prices still high?
As of Thursday, April 30, the national average price for regular gasoline was $4.30 per gallon, with some states expected to reach $6 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). A month ago, the average price was $3.99; around this time in 2025, it was $3.18.
Not only are gas prices at an all-time high; Since the start of the Iran war, but since the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, according to previous reporting by USA TODAY. And now that peace talks between Iran and the United States appear to be at a standstill, gas prices are rising.
Despite the price volatility, experts say Americans should still expect to pay higher prices at the pump. Here’s what you need to know about gas prices and when they might start falling.
Why are gas prices so high in the United States?
Oil prices have risen as regional supplies have been disrupted due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war. The war also made oil transportation more dangerous and caused collateral damage to the oil industry’s infrastructure, among other factors.
Although the United States is considered the largest oil producer, it is also the largest oil consumer, USA TODAY previously reported. Despite the U.S. average of more than 13 million barrels per day, domestic gasoline prices have soared due to global market forces, with oil-producing countries selling tankers to the highest bidders in the international market.
“That means oil will literally be flowing towards the highest price,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “If a tanker can be sold at a higher price in Malaysia than in Rotterdam and higher than in Rio de Janeiro, then the tanker will go to Malaysia.”
When will gas prices drop?
James Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, expects high prices to continue until the end of 2026.
“Insurance premiums for ships passing through the Straits will go up,” Zandi said. “There is always the possibility that the ceasefire will be broken, and traders will seek some premium to compensate for that risk.”
This premium “will probably continue for some time,” Cox added.
Gasoline prices have fluctuated in recent days following news of the uneasy ceasefire on April 8th. Even if a ceasefire were reached, oil and gasoline prices would remain elevated for several months unless some new sources of information were published online, Cox said.
During the Iran war, oil infrastructure in the Middle East was damaged or disrupted. Kate Gordon, CEO of sustainability nonprofit California Forward, said some of that “will take years to rebuild.” Meanwhile, global oil supplies will remain tight.
“We can’t go back to how things were before,” Zandi said. “At least not this year.”
Julia Gomez is USA TODAY’s trends reporter, covering popular toys, space phenomena, scientific research, natural disasters, holidays, and trending news. Connect with her on LinkedIn ×Instagram, TikTok: @juliamariegz or email jgomez@gannett.com..
