The weather for the World Cup has been a hot topic.
In May, World Weather Attribution released a report analyzing the potential impact of heat on the World Cup, warning that approximately one in four matches could be played in dangerously hot conditions.
So NPR recently calculated which games are most at risk in hot, humid weather, and the analysis found that as many as one-third of games are at higher risk in hot, humid conditions. Bloomberg also published a visual story tracking which teams will play the more dangerous Heat schedule.
Ahead of the World Cup starting on June 11, USA TODAY conducted further analysis of recent weather trends at World Cup venues.
The analysis specifically counted the number of days each venue exceeded an estimated wet bulb temperature of 78.8 degrees Fahrenheit (26 degrees Celsius) during the 2016-2025 World Cup. Above this temperature, the world athletes’ association FIFPRO says heatstroke becomes a real risk.
USA TODAY found that Houston, Miami and Dallas had the most frequent outdoor heat loads during the World Cup.
At WBGT of 82.4 degrees Fahrenheit (28 degrees Celsius), FIFPRO recommends delaying or postponing play. Current FIFA regulations do not allow for postponements until the WBGT reaches 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit (32 degrees Celsius).
The 2026 tournament will include a three-minute hydration break every 22 minutes between each half of all 104 games.
WBGT is a heat stress index that takes into account temperature, humidity, sun, and wind. For this analysis, USA TODAY used hourly ERA5 land temperature and dew point data from the European Union’s Copernicus program to estimate shaded/sheltered WBGT.
This is not the first World Cup to be affected by adverse conditions. For the 2014 Brazil men’s tournament, FIFA introduced a cooling break if weather conditions reached 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit. And the last World Cup in Qatar was held in winter to avoid the country’s harshest weather.
It’s also worth noting that some matches at the 2026 World Cup will be played indoors, including the match between Houston and Dallas. These are the two cities with the highest outdoor heat loads in this analysis.
However, fans will likely experience the effects of heat on their way to and around the stadium. World Weather Attribution specifically noted in its report that fans “may also be adversely affected by the rise in WBGT.”
Heat loads also generally worsened in July in this analysis. And Miami’s Hard Rock, one of the stadiums that frequently suffers from the heat, will host three games that month, including the quarterfinals and third-place game. With Hard Rock Stadium especially outdoors, Miami recorded a WBGT of 78.8 degrees Fahrenheit on 90% of the analysis days, second only to Houston’s 94.1%.
The semifinals will be held in Dallas, which exceeded the 78.8 degrees Fahrenheit WBGT on 87.9% of analysis days, and Atlanta, which exceeded the 78.8 degrees Fahrenheit WBGT 46.2% of the time. However, both venues have temperature control.
The finals will be held outdoors in East Rutherford, New Jersey, where only a 20% chance of passing the standard. Three host cities, Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Toronto, failed to reach the baseline during the analysis period.
Methodology: USA TODAY analyzed hourly ERA5-ground temperature and dew point data near each 2026 World Cup venue from June 11 to July 19 from 2016 to 2025. The shaded/protected WBGT was estimated from temperature and humidity using the indoor/no solar loading WBGT approximation. The results represent outdoor conditions near each venue, rather than conditions inside the stadium or on the field in direct sunlight.
