America’s top forecaster issues urgent message as hurricane season begins
USA TODAY spoke with Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan. These five safety tips will help protect you as the Atlantic season starts to heat up.
Could Tropical Storm Arthur be forming in the Gulf Coast? On June 15, National Hurricane Center forecasters raised the chance of the storm forming within the next few days to 50%.
A tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico (renamed by the federal government as the Gulf of America) will increase the risk of heavy rain and numerous flash floods across Mexico’s Gulf Coast and South this week, said Michael Rowley, a hurricane expert with WPLG-TV in Miami.
Flood watches are in effect for more than 20 million residents in Texas and Louisiana due to the threat of flooding from this disruption, combined with other weather systems, according to the National Weather Service. This includes the Austin, Houston, and San Antonio metropolitan areas.
Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza said on his blog, The Eyewall, that the area between Corpus Christi, Texas, and Lake Charles, Louisiana, and southwestern Mississippi will see the heaviest rain, with isolated spots potentially receiving up to 15 inches or more.
“This is the most significant rainfall setting in this region since 2024,” Lanza said. As the Weather Prediction Center points out, “Storms that develop in this environment will have an almost unnatural ability to produce heavy rainfall.”
The hurricane center also warned: “Regardless of tropical storm development, officials in southern and eastern Texas and parts of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for torrential rain over the next few days that could cause widespread, life-threatening flash flooding, urban and river flooding. High winds and coastal flooding are also possible in parts of the northwest Gulf Coast.”
Development takes several days
Developing tropical system remains over Mexico: The National Hurricane Center said in its forecast Monday morning that a trough of low pressure over northeastern Mexico continues to produce chaotic showers and thunderstorm activity.
“No development is expected over the next day or so as the trough remains inland and flows generally northward across northeastern Mexico and southern Texas,” the hurricane center said.
“The system could then track northeast and reemerge in the northwestern U.S. Gulf late Tuesday or Wednesday, where environmental conditions could support some development around midweek,” the hurricane center said.
Hello, Arthur?
In a named system, it would be named Tropical Storm Arthur.
Tropical storm watches and warnings may be required for parts of the Gulf Coast beginning June 16, the Hurricane Center said.
Heavy rain, flash flooding and strong winds are possible across eastern and southern Texas and parts of Louisiana this week, regardless of whether a tropical storm forms, according to the hurricane center.
Regarding tropical development, Lanza said, “Tropical development is unlikely to extend beyond cyclone or low-grade tropical cyclone status. This should be considered primarily as severe storms and flash flooding events along the Gulf Coast.”
The chaos came from Tropical Storm Christina
A series of weather disturbances over Mexico can be traced in part to moisture associated with Christina, which reached tropical storm strength in the eastern Pacific Ocean south of Central America, AccuWeather said.
Cristina dumped rain across Central America late last week before disappearing.
Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s chief hurricane expert, said in an online forecast that the system could return to the skies over the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas, or a second system could try to form over the Gulf Coast along the front that stalled earlier in the week.
DaSilva said any organized storms along or near the front could lead to further increases in rainfall, but for most of the South, rain forecasts and flash flooding concerns remain the same regardless of tropical development.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, focusing on weather and climate.
