Early primaries will test Trump’s influence and party loyalty
Trump may not be on the ballot, but his influence is everywhere. What early primaries reveal about party divisions and 2026 legislative battles.
The final Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll was released on Sunday, March 1, providing insight into key races in Texas to help kick off the busy 2026 midterm election cycle.
Both primary ballots are divided by race along lines of electability. For Democrats, the choice in an increasingly competitive showdown will be between Texas Rep. James Talarico, a national newcomer, and Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a symbol of the “resistance” style of opposition to the Trump administration. On the Republican side, the three-way race pits incumbent Sen. John Cornyn against populist-leaning challengers Rep. Wesley Hunt and Attorney General Ken Paxton.
A poll of likely voters conducted between Feb. 26 and Feb. 27 shows Mr. Paxton with a slight lead over Mr. Cornyn, with Mr. Hunt’s presence preventing either candidate from reaching the 50% mark. On the Democratic side, Talarico is leading Crockett in a close race.
Here’s what you need to know about the Emerson College poll results for the Texas Senate primary.
What do the latest polls say about the Texas Democratic primary?
Final polls from Emerson College Poll and Nexstar Media show Mr. Talarico heading into the primary with a slight lead over Mr. Crockett.
- James Talarico: 52%
- Jasmine Crockett: 47%
- Ahmed Hasan: 1%
The poll has a sample size of 850 and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of the Emerson College Poll, said in a release that the outcome could depend on whether the electorate is made up primarily of early voters or voters on Election Day.
“Among voters who voted early, Mr. Talarico holds a significant lead, 58% to 41%, and among voters on Election Day, Mr. Crockett leads 50% to 39%,” Kimball said.
Emerson said in a release that Talarico leads Crockett among white, Hispanic and male voters, while Crockett leads among women and black voters.
The survey points out that, “Among voters under 40, Talarico’s support rate is 54% to 44%, a 10-point difference, but voters in their 40s to 60s are evenly matched, with 50% supporting Talarico and 49% supporting Crockett.” “Voters over 70 support Talarico 55% to 42%.”
What do the latest polls say about the Texas Republican primary?
Paxton heads into the primary with a slight lead, but falls short of the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff, according to Emerson College Poll and Nexstar Media polls. result:
- Ken Paxton: 40%
- John Cornyn: 36%
- Wesley Hunt: 17%
- Others: 8%
The poll has a sample size of 547 and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
According to the poll, Mr. Cornyn leads among early voters, 38% to 34%, while Mr. Paxton holds a lead among likely Election Day voters (44% to 32%).
“Senator Cornyn performed best among college-educated Republican primary voters, with Paxton leading 43% to 32% and voters 70 and older 52% to 35%, while among voters under 50 Paxton led 38% to 22% and voters in their 50s and 60s 44% to 30%,” Kimball said.
The poll showed Paxton leading among respondents who voted for President Trump in 2024, leading Cornyn 46% to 33%, while the incumbent senator performed “significantly better” among voters who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris or another candidate in 2024, winning 49% of that group to Paxton’s 8%.
