Allegations of sexual assault ousted the top Democratic candidate, reducing the risk of a Republican-only general election.
Eric Swalwell suspends gubernatorial race over sexual assault allegations
Congressman Eric Swalwell has announced he is suspending his campaign after multiple women accuse him of sexual assault.
- Congressman Eric Swalwell’s withdrawal from the California gubernatorial race has drastically changed the race for his Democratic rivals.
- His resignation is an opportunity for other Democratic candidates, including Tom Steyer and Katie Porter, to court his supporters.
- California’s “top two” primary system has raised concerns among Democrats that two Republicans could advance to the general election.
Former U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell’s sudden withdrawal from the California gubernatorial race amid allegations of sexual assault and harassment may seem like bad news for Democrats, but there is also a major sign of hope that the risk of a Republican-only victory in the state’s bipartisan primary on June 2 is reduced.
The Golden State’s unusual voting system, in which the top two finishers advance to the November general election regardless of party affiliation, has left liberal voters split between eight candidates, while Republicans are focused on two candidates: former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
As a result, some polls showed Hilton and Bianco leading in heavily Democratic states. The same polls, including one released March 18 by the University of California, Berkeley, placed Mr. Swalwell in third place. If his supporters were redistributed across the left side of the field, two progressive challengers who were trailing him by just a few percentage points, billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer and former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, would have a better chance of making it through the primary.
“I think Mr. Swalwell’s rapid bottoming out is something that fundamentally shakes up the campaign,” said David McCune, a veteran political science professor at Sonoma State University. “He was gaining momentum. The momentum was going in his favor and he was hit by a tsunami.”
“Going forward, any candidate could benefit from Mr. Swalwell’s ouster,” he added.
Swalwell faced possible expulsion from Congress and resigned from the House on April 13 after serving seven terms. Political observers, including former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, said his withdrawal from the gubernatorial race a day earlier cleared the way for candidates who are languishing in the single digits.
Willie Brown, former San Francisco mayor and California state chairman, told USA TODAY that Stalwell’s loss in such a close race could lead to the emergence of these three candidates and Steyer.
“These four are strong options to consider,” Brown said.
Swalwell’s fall from grace
Mr. Swalwell suspended his gubernatorial race on April 12 after the San Francisco Chronicle reported on allegations of sexual assault by a former staffer and CNN followed up with the same sources and three other women who accused them of other forms of sexual misconduct.
A former aide accused Mr. Swalwell of raping her while drunk and leaving her bruised and bleeding after the encounter. Swalwell vehemently denies the assault charge, but admits to making other unspecified “mistakes.”
This led to an onslaught of criticism of Mr. Swalwell from top Democratic leaders in Congress, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Sen. Adam Schiff of California. Mr. Schiff had previously supported Mr. Swalwell’s candidacy for governor. Labor unions and other progressive groups also withdrew their support.
“This is one of the fastest candidate withdrawals I’ve ever seen,” said Brian Sobel, a veteran political communications and strategy consultant based in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Mr. Swalwell, 45, was first elected to Congress in 2012, representing a Northern California district outside Oakland, where he was Alameda County’s prosecutor. He was a leading contender in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary and was considered a generational charismatic figure before dropping out and endorsing eventual winner Joe Biden.
Brown speculated that rival candidates in both parties knew about Swalwell’s misconduct allegations, but that only Democrats wanted them to disclose them before the primary.
“Republicans would have known, but someone else moved too soon,” Brown said. “They waited and tried to steal the gubernatorial election at the 11th hour.”
California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks said in a statement on April 12 that Swalwell “finally” did the right thing by ending his campaign, but said his name would still appear when ballots are mailed next month.
“I ask everyone who cares about California’s future to help me make sure all voters understand that he is unfit for office and will have as little support as possible at the polls,” Hicks said.
Swalwell’s rivals jump to retreat
In most polls released for California’s gubernatorial race, Swalwell, Porter and Steyer are the only Democratic candidates with double-digit approval ratings.
In an April 8 poll commissioned by two groups supporting Mr. Swalwell, Mr. Hilton led with 22%, followed by Mr. Swalwell with 18%, Mr. Bianco with 13%, Mr. Steyer with 12% and Mr. Porter with 11%.
The survey found that the approval ratings for all the other candidates remained below 5%.
Porter’s campaign shared an internal February poll with USA TODAY this week that found 46% of Swalwell supporters said the former congressman was their second choice, compared to 14% who supported Steyer, who has poured about $112 million of his own money into the race.
“Katie has never spent a dime on paid advertising and has consistently been at the top of her field since day one,” Peter Ortiz, a spokesman for Porter’s campaign, said in a statement. “Katie is the only candidate who has never taken a dime from a corporate PAC.”
“She took on Donald Trump and won,” he added. “While billionaires are trying to buy this election, Katie’s sole focus is on making California more affordable for working families.”
In a statement, Steyer sidestepped the political implications of Swalwell’s departure and instead praised “brave former staffers” and other women for coming forward.
“We were failed by a political system designed to silence victims and protect power,” Steyer said.
Other Democrats vying to succeed term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom see this as a chance to reset the equation.
For example, former California Attorney General Becerra pointed to his track record in handling sexual assault cases in an April 12 post about X. He continued the following day touting support from California officials, saying no candidate has fought to protect the state from the Trump administration more than he has.
For lesser-known candidates like former Gov. Betty Yee, who has an approval rating of about 1%, the realignment will give voters a chance to think twice about their choices. She said many of the candidates who are high in the polls have not been properly vetted compared to previous statewide officeholders like her.
“This should give voters at least some reassurance that if they’ve been with us before, they know what we’ve got,” she said. “There are no skeletons in the closet.”
Porter’s personal life has come under intense scrutiny since details of her divorce were made public. She was accused of verbal and physical abuse by her ex-husband, claiming in a 2013 court filing that she threw a pot of boiling potatoes at his head. Porter denied these allegations, but they resurfaced during her failed Senate bid in 2024.
In an interview with USA TODAY, Yee said a candidate’s character is important and highlighted past incidents in which Porter criticized reporters and staffers as something voters should consider when choosing their next governor.
“I question whether she has the right temperament to govern under stress. I mean, there’s a lot of stress in being governor of California,” she said.
San Jose Mayor Mahan echoed those concerns when he spoke briefly with USA TODAY this week. He said the race was now “wide open” and that personality issues would come to the forefront going forward.
“I’m concerned about the other options in this race: a billionaire who made his fortune funding private prisons and ICE detention centers, a former congressman who has serious charges of abusing staff,” Mahan said in an interview.
Porter’s campaign did not immediately respond to these comments.
Candidates may need only 15% to win in primaries, experts say
Despite Swalwell’s controversial exit, the race remains crowded, with Sonoma State University professor McCune estimating that a candidate may need only 15% of the vote to win in the primary.
“At least 15%, that’s the magic number,” McCann said. He added that lower-ranking candidates who win 5% have an “incredible challenge” to double or triple their vote total.
“There are lanes, but they’re not for everyone. Voters will have to decide, for example, whether they support Mr. Becerra or the candidate who has a better chance of winning,” McEwan said. “Or do you want to sit out this primary? Some may.”
Melissa Michelson, a political science professor at Silicon Valley’s Menlo College, said the Swalwell scandal could also increase voter interest in the race. And the now “must-see” April 22 debate in San Francisco could reintroduce the remaining candidates, she said.
“You know what?” said Mr. Michaelson. “It’s still everyone’s game.”
Some of California’s most prominent Democrats, including Pelosi, Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris, have not endorsed anyone, but an endorsement could help narrow the field.
Brown said he has not yet chosen a candidate but plans to do so.
“Oh, I’m going to find someone, believe me,” Brown said. “The California governor’s office is important not only to the state of California, but to the entire country.”
