In an exclusive interview with USA TODAY, the nation’s top Republican governor urged Republican candidates, including Reps. Byron Donald and Andy Biggs, to focus on affordability. Will Trump get in the way?
WASHINGTON – In President Donald Trump’s D.C., Republicans have it all. The White House, Congress, and Supreme Court are under conservative control. In theory, it’s a Republican fever dream.
In reality, it’s not always a dream come true.
Intraparty strife, rising gas prices and a splinter war in Iran could pose challenges for Congressional Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections.
As November approaches, some of them are aiming to evacuate the Capitol altogether.
According to Ballotpedia, 12 Republicans in both chambers (an unusually high number) are running for governor in their home states. All of the 10 House members gunning for state capitals are Republicans.
It’s part of a larger pattern of Washington politicians turning to state politics. On both sides of the aisle, many are becoming increasingly disillusioned with the deep dysfunction at the federal level.
At the same time, other recent national trends, from new redistricting wars to legal battles launched by both blue and red states in response to policies from the Trump and Biden administrations, highlight how influential state government machinations can be.
“As we face increasingly serious policy battles at the state level, it is important that veteran conservatives run for office to hold the line on the homeland,” Rep. Andy Biggs, a Republican running to be Arizona’s next governor, said in a statement to USA TODAY.
Despite a series of painful gerrymandering defeats, Democrats remain well-positioned to take back the House. At the same time, 36 gubernatorial races are scheduled to be on the ballot later this year.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election forecast by the University of Virginia, recently flipped six of these races in favor of Democrats, including Arizona. States at issue include Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia.
But since the 1994 red wave, Republicans have largely maintained their gubernatorial advantage. Democrats currently control 24 states, while Republicans control 26 states. Pollsters say the trend means Republicans could maintain a slight advantage in state capitals into the fall.
“Republicans may remain well-positioned to maintain their overall advantage in gubernatorial races, bucking the normal trend of the president’s party losing gubernatorial races in midterm elections,” Sabato analysts Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman wrote in a March 19 analysis.
Montana governor leading the way for Republicans
Greg Gianforte is no stranger to Washington traffic jams. He served two terms as governor of Montana and spent about four years as a member of the House of Representatives. He is now leading a Republican effort to seize more governor’s mansions.
“He has a big job to do,” U.S. Rep. Byron Donald told USA TODAY about Gianforte. Donald is considered the favorite to become the next Republican governor of Florida.
Gianforte, president of the Republican Governors Association, said in an exclusive conversation with USA TODAY that he understands how difficult it is to pass legislation at the federal level. However, many policy decisions are still made in Washington. Both Trump and former President Joe Biden have successfully passed major legislation, rewritten key regulations and enacted changes that affect millions of people.
Gianforte said if such policies are adopted or their effects are softened, the spending would be limited to state capitals.
“Whatever kind of insanity there is in Washington, D.C., the last barrier to insanity is state government,” he said.
Affordability headwinds favor Democrats
In Gianforte’s view, the key to the Republican gubernatorial strategy lies in one word: “affordability.”
“Affordability is real,” he said. “Democrats are trying to capitalize on that. But that’s a Republican problem.”
He noted that conservatives have traditionally had an affinity for lowering taxes, cracking down on fraud that costs taxpayers dearly, and raising wages in Republican-led states.
But he ignored one big issue: President Trump.
In recent days, the White House has been pushing ahead with efforts to lower costs for Americans in the interim, including asking Congress to suspend the federal gas tax and pass housing reform legislation. But on top of soaring inflation and rising fuel costs, the president has repeatedly found ways to complicate his message on affordability. President Trump has publicly called the initiative a “hoax” and told reporters on May 12 that he cares more about the Middle East than Americans’ pocketbooks.
President Trump said, “I’m not thinking about the economic situation of the American people.” “I’m not thinking about anyone. I’m only thinking about one thing. We can’t let Iran have nuclear weapons. That’s it.”
Fighting against such headwinds will be difficult. But Mr. Gianforte has been at the center of many political battles (sometimes literally) after assaulting a reporter in 2017, pleading guilty and apologizing, and then having to go to anger management counseling.
Mr. Trump, a friend of Mr. Gianforte, said of Mr. Gianforte, a Republican from Montana, at a rally in 2018: “Greg is smart and by the way, I would never wrestle him.”
Meanwhile, Democrats harshly criticized the president’s flawed message. They also note that Republicans running for governor in battleground states have a history of harming elections, and raised concerns among election integrity advocates, who would oversee the 2028 presidential election if Republicans win.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, president of the Democratic Governors Association, said in a statement to USA TODAY that public opinion is clearly on his party’s side and he believes it will deliver victory in the fall.
“As Donald Trump makes everything more expensive and disrupts everything, Democratic governors and candidates are talking about how they can make people’s lives easier by cutting costs, creating jobs, investing in public education and protecting health care,” he said. “That’s a big contrast.”
Contributed by: USA TODAY Graphics Reporter Jennifer Boresen
Zachary Schermele is a Congressional reporter for USA TODAY. You can email us at zschermele@usatoday.com. Follow him on X at @ZachSchermele and on Bluesky at @zachschermele.bsky.social.
