Democrats face major redistricting setbacks in Tennessee and Virginia
Democrats face redistricting setbacks following a Virginia Supreme Court ruling and newly approved Tennessee congressional maps.
The redistricting war is heating up.
What happens next?
History provides little guidance. Because there has never before been a cross-border campaign to redraw congressional districts in the middle of the decade and on the fly. But the effects are immediate and far-reaching, likely boosting the Republican Party’s prospects in the midterm elections, weakening political centrists, reducing minority representation in Congress, and intensifying the country’s polarization.
The Texas Republican Party launched a redistricting bid last August at the request of President Donald Trump. California Democrats had a similar reaction. And the U.S. Supreme Court’s April 29 decision opened the floodgates even as the November election looms.
President Trump boasted to reporters at the White House in July that “Texas will be the largest state,” and his prediction came true. “That makes it 5 (seats).”
A total of eight states have redrawn their congressional districts in the past year for political advantage, but some of the new maps are still being challenged in court.
The new lines in six states are aimed at endangering incumbent House Democrats in Texas as well as Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Tennessee.
California’s new map aims to help defeat up to five Republican senators. But an effort to redraw Virginia’s congressional map to flip up to four Republican-held seats was rejected on procedural grounds by the state Supreme Court on May 8, a major setback for Democrats.
In Utah, a judge ordered the Republican-led state legislature to abide by an anti-gerrymandering measure passed by voters in 2018. This created a Democratic-friendly congressional district centered on Salt Lake County.
Bottom line: Republican candidates currently face more favorable terrain in 14 House districts, compared to Democratic candidates in six.
In a political world where Republicans have a mere five-seat majority in the House, these incremental gains could soften the party’s defeat in the midterm elections, despite the headwinds of an unpopular war and rising gas prices.
And a ceasefire has not yet been reached.
Redistricting is not finished this year.
Tennessee wasn’t late.
A week after the Supreme Court’s decision weakening the Voting Rights Act, the Volunteer state Legislature approved and Republican Gov. Bill Lee signed a redistricting plan aimed at taking control of Tennessee’s only Democratic-leaning congressional district.
The district, centered around Memphis, was divided into three Republican-dominated districts. The new line will run down the middle of Beale Street and extend hundreds of miles to the outskirts of Nashville.
Three other southern states are also eager to redraw their legislatures.
In Alabama and South Carolina, Republicans want to flip Democratic-held congressional districts in those states toward Republicans. In Louisiana, Republican Gov. Jeff Landry delayed the primary to give him time to redraw districts with the goal of flipping one or two Democratic seats.
Shrinking the political middle class
The number of competitive parliamentary seats is already declining, both as a result of and a contributing factor to the country’s sharp political divisions.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report and Amy Walter estimate that only 18 of the 435 U.S. House districts are currently in dispute. This is the lowest number since independent analyst Charlie Cook began publishing his ratings more than 40 years ago.
“Leaders of both parties may think it’s good for their political fortunes,” said Dan Webb, a former U.S. attorney and director of the nonpartisan group No Labels. “But it’s scary for America and the vast political center.”
Politicians in safe Republican or safe Democratic districts have little electoral incentive to reach out across party lines while campaigning or in office. Winning the party’s nomination would almost guarantee victory in the general election, but the biggest risk to another term is that he will not be able to satisfy the most partisan voices.
Minority representation is likely to decline
The Louisiana v. Calais decision on the Voting Rights Act will almost certainly reduce the number of districts with a majority of minority voters, which will likely also reduce the number of racially diverse legislators.
Majority-minority districts are likely to be redrawn in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Tennessee and Texas by November. In South Carolina, Republicans want to target the district of former House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, the only African American in the state’s congressional delegation.
The impact is expected to accelerate after the 2030 Census prompts redistricting in nearly every state. Nearly 70 congressional districts covered by the Voting Rights Act’s protections could be changed.
This will likely result in the sharpest decline in the number of black legislators since 1877, during the post-Civil War Reconstruction period. And the new Congress has four fewer black members than the previous Congress.
According to the Pew Research Center, 133 members of the current House of Representatives in the 119th Congress are Black, Hispanic, Asian American, or multiracial. Although this is a record, Congress remains less racially and ethnically diverse than the United States as a whole.
Almost three-quarters of these member states have a geographical base in majority-minority areas that can no longer be expected to be protected.
Read more: Modern art depicting the district
Most of the new maps look more like abstract art of red and blue tendrils than sensible grids, and that’s true of some of the majority-minority districts that are being erased.
In Texas, for example, new legislative lines zigzag through major cities like Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio, dividing Democratic-heavy districts into vast Republican-controlled areas.
(Of course, this is nothing new; the word “gerrymander” was coined in 1812 to describe districts that were redrawn with a little imagination by then-Massachusetts Governor Elbridge Gerry.)
Now, some states that didn’t have the time or political momentum to redraw their districts in 2026 are considering the possibility of redrawing them next year. If Republicans are able to cushion their expected losses in this year’s redistricting process, such efforts could well be spurred.
In Mississippi, the state legislature has already scheduled a special session in late May to review the state’s Supreme Court districts. In Georgia, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp said the state will likely draw new congressional maps before the 2028 election.
Some Republican officials are discussing redistricting in other red states, including Arizona, Kansas, Nebraska and New Hampshire.
So do some Democratic leaders in blue-leaning states such as Colorado, Illinois, Maryland, New York, New Jersey and Washington.
“It’s time to fight fire with fire,” Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul vows. “All is fair in love and war.”
And this is war.
