Polling and fundraising look favorable for Democrats in the key Senate race, but they still face an uphill climb to winning a majority.
Illinois Democratic Senate Primary Results
Illinois voters focused their primary on the Senate race after Sen. Dick Durbin said, “It’s time to pass the torch.”
A few months ago, the prevailing belief in Washington was that Republicans could lose the House in the 2026 midterm elections, but that they had a majority in the Senate.
To win the Senate majority, Democrats would need to overturn four Republican incumbents, including some states that President Donald Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024.
But massive fundraising and a strong candidate search effort, coupled with Trump’s declining popularity and infighting among his base, gave them a solid chance to pull it off.
Recent polls show Democratic Senate candidates are leading or statistically tied in Republican-held seats in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio.
Experts say the worsening domestic climate for Republicans and growing optimism for Democrats is due to one thing: President Trump’s worsening poll numbers.
“Donald Trump is a millstone around the necks of Republican Senate candidates from Maine to Texas,” Rice University political science professor Mark P. Jones said in an interview.
Prediction market companies such as Calci indicate control of the Senate is a toss-up. Earlier this year, Carsi gave Republicans a 67% chance of retaining the majority, but as of April 29, that probability had dropped to 51%.
But other political observers say Republicans will be narrow favorites to retain the Senate, given Democrats’ near-perfect election season.
One challenge for Democrats is that they must hold seats of their own in Georgia and Michigan, where the presidential election is contested, as well as New Hampshire, where a popular incumbent has retired and could be a swing state.
“Democrats have to play a perfect game,” Jessica Taylor, an analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told USA TODAY.
“It’s not unheard of, and the environment is certainly working in their favor, but right now they’re still slightly behind in winning a Senate seat,” he added. “But a year ago at this time, they weren’t really even in the game.”
Democrats are working hard at polling and fundraising.
For most of the past year, Democrats have outperformed at the polls — even when they’ve lost — suggesting a possible “blue wave” that could hand them Congress.
Federal Election Commission records for the first quarter of 2026 show that Democratic candidates raised more money than Republicans in each of the four Republican-held seats needed to regain the majority.
One of the biggest funding gaps is in the closely watched North Carolina race, where former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has raised $13.8 million in the first three months of the year, compared to $5 million for former RNC Chairman Mike Whatley.
An April 29 poll by Opinion Diagnostics showed Mr. Cooper leading Mr. Whatley by nine points.
But the path to a majority extends beyond swing states such as North Carolina, which Trump won by about 3 percentage points in 2024.
In Alaska, which Trump won by 13 percentage points, former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola raised about $8.7 million, four times more than Republican incumbent Jack Sullivan’s $1.7 million. The March poll had him leading by about 5 points, with a margin of error of 3.5%.
A Bowling Green State University poll showed Sen. Jon Husted only had a 3-point lead over former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, which has trended Republican for more than a decade. Given the poll’s margin of error, this is considered a tie.
Mr. Brown raised $12.5 million through his campaign and related organizations, according to FEC records, dwarfed by the $3.7 million Mr. Husted raised with the same organizations.
Taylor said the midterm elections remain in flux for Senate Democrats, who have built a strong recruiting base this year that has created critical infrastructure for the general election. He said other races where the Cook Political Report shows support are also awaiting key results, such as Iowa, where Republican incumbent Joni Ernst decided not to run for reelection.
Republicans are hopeful as they close behind Trump
None of this guarantees a Democratic-controlled Senate in 2027, as winning seven out of seven elections remains a high bar.
Even as individual Democratic candidates outperformed their Republican opponents in fundraising, pro-Trump groups like Make America Great Again held a massive $600 million combined lead over Democratic super PACs like Future Forward.
The money will help Republicans defend Democrats in states like New Hampshire. In New Hampshire, the popular incumbent, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, has declined to seek reelection, setting up a competitive race that is rated as “lean” rather than “safe” for Democrats.
Republicans only need to maintain their 50-seat caucus to maintain their Senate majority, with Vice President J.D. Vance acting as the tie-breaking vote.
They highlight victories in Congress, including tax cuts in last year’s “Big Beautiful Bill.”
“All Democrats supported tax increases,” Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in an April 14 post on the X Show.
“Meanwhile, President Trump and the Republicans cut people’s taxes. We won. The American people won. Democrats lost.”
Republicans are also focusing on Democratic missteps and controversies, such as the appearance of members of Texas Senate candidate James Talarico’s church giggling during an April 27 service when the church’s pastor referred to “mixed emotions” about the third attempt on Trump’s life this month.
The 36-year-old state lawmaker leads two potential Republican opponents in a hotly contested primary, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, according to a new poll from the University of Texas and the Texas Politics Project.
Experts remain skeptical that Talarico can pull off an upset victory in Texas in 2024, a state that Trump won by 14 points. But his rising popularity and massive $27 million in fundraising in the first three months of this year will force Republicans to play defensively.
How well the election will be defended will largely depend on voters in battleground states like Maine, where incumbent Susan Collins is the only Republican facing reelection in a state won by former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.
Scott, speaking to Maine Republicans at the party’s convention on April 24, said the Senate must remain “a firewall for America.” “I say this everywhere I go across the country. I tell every donor I call, every state I visit, the same story,” he said. “It all starts with Susan Collins.”
Democrats were fighting a crowded primary in Maine between Gov. Janet Mills and political newcomer Graham Platner, an oyster farmer who outscored his Schumer-backed rival in the first quarter and is gaining attention among progressives. Mr. Mills collected about $2.7 million, while Mr. Platner collected about $4.1 million, according to the FEC.
Mills surprised political observers on April 30 by withdrawing from the race, citing funding disparities.
But another competitive Democratic primary, Michigan, a presidential battleground state that Trump won by less than two points, could also give Republicans a chance. The three-way race between U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, former Detroit Health Commissioner Abdul El-Sayed and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow is marked by differences over Israel and the Democratic Party establishment.
Democrats are primarily betting that President Trump’s unpopularity weighs on Republican candidates in these races. The government has already begun to stake its claim for 2026 on the regime’s war with Iran, leading to a rise in gasoline prices, which rose this week to a four-year high of $4.18 a gallon, according to AAA data.
An Associated Press/NORC Research Center poll released April 29 found that only 30% of Americans approve of President Trump’s economic response. This is an 8 point decrease compared to the same survey in March.
While Trump’s disapproval rating weighs on Republican candidates, some observers say he remains an energizing force and won’t be easily sidelined.
If the Republican Party is suffering from a lack of enthusiasm, as other races this year have shown, Senate candidates may have no choice but to embrace the president. Experts say that without his support, it would be impossible for him to hold on to states he won by double digits.
“They’ll be criticized if they do it, and they’ll be criticized if they don’t do it. If they distance themselves from Trump, that’s going to have a negative impact in terms of turnout among the Republican base,” said Jones, a professor at Rice University.
“But the more they are seen as aligned with Trump, the more moderate Republicans and independents are alienated, and the more likely they are to vote for his Democratic rival.”
