Early season storms in June can develop quickly and intensely near the coasts of the United States. For now, there is little sign of tropical activity.
NOAA urges coastal residents to be aware of hurricane risks
NOAA warns to be aware of hurricane risks
Nearly a week into Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters are still seeing little sign of tropical activity. But hurricane forecasters say it’s worth remaining cautious.
Overall, June is typically a slow month for hurricane activity, but the storms that do form can form quickly and intensely near the coasts of the United States.
AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said that rather than watching a tropical wave cross the entire Atlantic Ocean for more than a week, which is common later in the season, early-season storms are typically the result of rotational development from a cold front moving south, a dip in the jet stream moving over warm ocean water, or clusters of showers or thunderstorms that develop from Central America and rotate northward.
Most of these storms typically move toward the northeastern Gulf Coast and Carolinas early in the month, before potentially impacting the western Gulf Coast later in the month.
Good news: June storms are rare and often weak.
According to AccuWeather’s DaSilva, “June hurricanes are extremely rare. On average, a June hurricane occurs about every five years, but circumstances can vary.”
He said the most recent hurricane in June was Beryl in 2024. The last June hurricane to hit the United States was Bonnie in 1986. The storm made landfall east of Houston, killing five people.
Michael Rowley, a hurricane expert at WPLG-TV in Miami, said there has only been one tropical cyclone on record east of the Caribbean islands in the first few weeks of June (the second tropical cyclone in 2003 lasted less than 24 hours), “which means there is generally less time to prepare for an early season storm threat.”
Lowry said June is historically the least active month of the six-month hurricane season. (Hurricane season runs from June to November.) And even November, which has fewer hurricanes, has more hurricanes than June, DaSilva said in an email to USA TODAY.
In a post on Substack, Rowley said that storms that do form tend to remain on the weaker side. Only three hurricanes of Category 3 or higher have been recorded in June: Audrey (1957), Alma (1966), and Beryl (2024) — but when tropical storms and less common hurricanes occur in June, they tend to occur near the United States.
“And typically these early blooms are characterized by rain and flooding, not high winds,” says Rowley.
Why are hurricanes less likely to occur in June?
“Hurricanes are less likely to form in June for several reasons,” DaSilva explained. “First, sea surface temperatures at this time of year are lower than they are in the middle of hurricane season.
“Wind shear is also typically strong and widespread. Another factor is that June typically includes a lot of dry, dusty air moving from Africa through the Atlantic Ocean. This dry, dusty air can suffocate a developing tropical cyclone.”
European scientists at the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Agency announced earlier this week that a large plume of Saharan dust is crossing the ocean and impacting Caribbean islands, clouding skies and deteriorating air quality.
Here are the pitfalls: Storms can ‘hit close to home’
Late-season hurricanes are often tracked over thousands of miles through all stages of development, whereas early-season hurricanes are more likely to form offshore of the United States.
“Particularly during the opening weeks of the season, formations occur closer to home, such as in the western Caribbean, the Gulf Coast, and off the southeastern coast of the United States,” Lowry said.
DaSilva agreed with this assessment, noting that “the areas most likely to see development in June are close to the United States. Typically, the areas where we see development are in the Gulf, the western Caribbean, and off the south-south coast.”
He said that in most cases, early-season development is not associated with the kind of tropical waves often seen later in the year.
What’s the forecast for the coming weeks in the Atlantic Basin?
DaSilva said he expects environmental conditions, including warmer ocean temperatures and lower wind shear, to become more favorable for storm formation in the second week of June.
“We’ll need to keep a close watch on the Gulf Coast around the middle of this month as tropical moisture could flow north from Central America and the eastern Pacific Ocean. Any developments mid-month will likely move toward the northern or northeastern Gulf Coast,” he said.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, focusing on weather and climate.
