US and Iran sign memorandum of understanding
As he left Versailles, President Trump referred to the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, shouting to reporters, “It’s signed.”
Was the Iran war worth it?
Although a memorandum of understanding has been signed and 60 days of negotiations are underway, the ceasefire is too fragile and the conflict too fresh to answer that question with confidence. But the early summaries highlight what has been gained and what has been sacrificed since President Donald Trump ordered the attack on Iran on February 28th.
He initially expected the conflict to last four to five weeks, suggesting it would be a kind of easy victory and quick spoils following the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January.
Rather, the Iran conflict is now four months old and the crisis continues, despite President Trump’s regularly optimistic predictions that peace is just around the corner. As modern predecessors from Lyndon Johnson to George W. Bush discovered before him, wars are easier to get into than out of.
The death toll announced by the government agency includes 13 U.S. military personnel and 26 Israelis. According to government agencies around the world, about 3,500 people, including more than 100 children, lost their lives in a girls’ school strike in Iran on the first day of the war, and more than 3,500 people lost their lives in Lebanon.
And it will take months and years to fully calculate the impact, with repercussions for the global economy, regional alliances, and U.S. domestic politics.
President Trump has hailed the war as a victorious exercise of American military power that restrained a rogue regime and protected the world from its nuclear ambitions. But Democratic critics and some influential MAGA voices, usually Trump’s defenders, say this is a misfortune that has emboldened Tehran.
Most Americans oppose war and are skeptical about its value. A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted June 17-19 found an overwhelming majority, 57% to 21%, said the conflict “created more problems than it solved.”
Let’s take a look at the previous five tradeoffs.
Iranian military degraded but not destroyed
The US and Israeli attacks decimated Iran’s navy and destroyed much of its air defenses. The stockpile of ballistic missiles is deteriorating.
But the Iranian government has enough small boats, drones, missiles and mines to block passage through the Strait of Hormuz and threaten U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf.
Eliminating Tehran’s missile capabilities has been a top priority for Israel from the beginning. That’s not something President Trump still shares.
“We’re going to let Saudi Arabia have missiles, but can’t they have missiles?” the president told reporters at the G7 summit in France. “It doesn’t work that way, it doesn’t work that way.”
MAGA split. Congressional opposition
The Iran war has caused rifts in the MAGA coalition built by President Trump, with some leading commentators accusing him of violating his “America First” campaign promise to avoid foreign entanglements. They argue that Trump’s pending deal is worse than the multilateral agreement negotiated by President Barack Obama in 2015, which Trump withdrew from during his first term.
“So there’s no lie in this,” longtime ally Tucker Carlson said on social media platform X’s show on June 17. “This is a pretty humiliating loss for the United States.”
Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, a conservative Republican whose bid for a second term was canceled due to President Trump’s opposition, called Iran “the worst foreign policy failure in decades.”
Trump responded by slamming “stupid people” who criticized the memo, saying on Truth Social that they are “either jealous, evil or stupid.”
Still, the White House felt compelled to issue a news release declaring, “President Trump’s Iran deal is an America-first action,” listing favorable quotes from Republican lawmakers, Fox News anchors, foreign leaders, and even Pope Leo XIV.
Trump did not seek Congressional authorization for the war. Now, the backlash over the course of the war and the failure to consult Congress is starting to cause some backlash within the Republican Party.
The Senate approved a procedural vote to advance the War Powers Resolution on May 19, 50-47, with the support of four Republicans. On June 3, the House of Representatives voted 215-208, with four Republicans joining Democrats in passing a largely symbolic bill aimed at ending the war.
Opening the Straits and Reducing Inflation
Iran’s commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days helped calm energy markets. The average price of gasoline in the United States is below $4 a gallon, down from its May peak but still well above the pre-conflict average of $2.96.
This is good news not only for American consumers but also for Republican candidates running in the midterm elections. Economic anxiety, short-sighted as “affordability,” is now at the top of voters’ concerns, and inflation is increasing dissatisfaction with the president and his party.
By the time the ceasefire was announced, the war had already cost U.S. consumers and taxpayers at least $132 billion in higher prices, higher interest rates and military spending, according to economic research firm Moody’s Analytics.
Economists have warned that it will be many months before prices for gas, fertilizer, food and other products return to pre-war levels before they can be transported openly and reliably through the Channel. Until now, about 20% of the world’s oil passed through the narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the open sea.
What remains at issue is whether Iran will seek to impose a “user fee” after the 60-day agreement expires.
Another point is that opening the strait will solve the problems caused by the war.
rupture with Israel
The war with Iran began as a joint operation between the United States and Israel, but negotiations to end it have become a hotly contested issue between President Trump and his longtime ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
President Trump claims the war protected Israel from nuclear annihilation. However, Israel was not informed of the draft cease-fire agreement until it was announced, and the draft included provisions that Netanyahu claims endangered Israel’s security.
At the G7 summit in France, Trump called Netanyahu “crazy” and used other expletives. In the region, Israel continued to attack Lebanon in a conflict with Hezbollah, threatening a ceasefire.
For Israel, the war has yet to achieve its fundamental objectives, such as eliminating Iran’s missile arsenal or clearly curbing its nuclear ambitions.
Undetermined: Iranian nuclear constraints
It’s too early to submit: The ceasefire gives two months to negotiations to resolve restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear program, among other things.
This was President Trump’s main goal in starting the war, but it was not mentioned in the 14-page ceasefire agreement, and the United States and Iran have given different explanations for how talks on the issue will proceed.
Vice President J.D. Vance said Iran had agreed to reinvite U.N. nuclear inspectors to inspect its damaged nuclear facilities, calling it a “major milestone,” but Iranian officials said they had made no such new commitment.
President Trump claimed of Truth Social: “If they don’t agree to this, there will be no further negotiations!” he warned, adding, “Negotiations are progressing well!”
Susan Page, USA TODAY’s Washington bureau chief, has covered 12 presidential elections and seven presidential elections. Her most recent book is The Queen and Her Presidents (Harper, 2026).
