Forecasters say this could be one of the largest El Niño events on record, with unprecedented sea temperatures in key regions. Here’s what this means for weather in the U.S. and around the world.
El Niño could calm Atlantic hurricanes in 2026
NOAA says El Niño could calm the Atlantic Ocean this storm season, but rising ocean temperatures could make the storms more intense.
Federal weather forecasters confirmed the onset of El Niño on June 11, saying the long-anticipated dramatic global climate change has arrived.
The announcement also adds to growing evidence that this El Niño is unusually strong and could exceed droughts, heavy rains and heat waves. Past El Niño events have resulted in some of the hottest years on record, including a record-breaking global average temperature in 2024.
El Niño is part of a larger climate cycle caused by water temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean. Natural climate patterns influence global weather and create different conditions around the world.
A new forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center predicts a “very strong” El Niño. It could grow to rival the strongest El Niño event in historical records dating back to 1950, Michel Leroux of the climate center said in an email to USA TODAY.
On the other hand, not all effects of El Niño are heinous. This pattern is also expected to reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, potentially bringing a milder winter (and lower heating costs) to millions of Americans.
Why is the transition to El Niño important?
World leaders have expressed concern about the prospect of droughts, heavy rains and heat waves.
“The world must treat this as an urgent climate warning. El Niño will add fuel to the fire of a warming world,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a video statement in early June.
A strong event can have ripple effects over the coming months, and new forecasts say a strong event is increasingly likely.
“NOAA’s latest update gives us a 63% chance of being ‘very strong’ next winter,” Rollu said.
“We have seven very strong events on our record, so this event has a good chance of reaching that level,” she said. “There’s still some uncertainty and there’s a one in three chance it’s not a very strong El Niño event.”
There is no evidence that climate change will increase the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, but the World Meteorological Organization said it could amplify their effects. Given that tropical Pacific waters are already 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average, there is growing concern at the United Nations that this El Niño could feed on the extra heat and “devastate vulnerable and unprepared communities around the world.”
Hydrothermal water holds the key to El Niño forecasts
When federal weather forecasters confirmed El Niño conditions on June 11, they used data from satellites showing sustained changes in wind and water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Temperatures briefly rose in the El Niño region during the first week of June, reaching record levels for this time of year. They have decreased slightly but are still above previous records as of June 9, according to visualizations from the University of Maine Climate Change Institute’s Climate Reanalyzer.
El Niño is part of a climate cycle known to scientists as the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO). But the phenomenon was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s, when unusually warm water appeared in the Pacific Ocean around Christmas. The name means “little boy” or “Christ Child” in Spanish.
If El Niño conditions are not present, the cycle can enter a neutral or La Niña phase.
“This year’s event started a little later than the big El Niños of 2015 and 1997, but it’s starting to catch up,” Josh Willis, a sea level researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said in late May. “Let’s see how big it gets.”
How will El Niño affect U.S. weather forecasts?
Forecasters say it’s too early to know the details and it’s always difficult to determine the exact impact El Niño will have on the weather. But this weather pattern has some notable features that forecasters expect.
- Be careful of the heat. According to AccuWeather, the Northwest, northern Plains and upper Midwest will experience a drier and warmer summer, potentially extending drought in some areas and increasing the risk of wildfires. Overall, El Niño increases the likelihood of above-average temperatures across the northern and western United States.
- It has (finally) rained in the southeast. According to AccuWeather, El Niño could bring wetter conditions to the Gulf Coast and Southeast, potentially relieving the ongoing drought in those regions.
- More rain and snow is possible in California. Abby Frazier, a professor of geography in Clark University’s School of Climate, Environment and Society, said California tends to experience more rain during El Niño events. Frazier said each El Niño event is different and is never guaranteed. “In many cases, however, we can expect conditions to be more favorable for things like atmospheric rivers that bring significant amounts of rain to Southern California.” AccuWeather said even more heavy snow is possible in the California mountains.
- Concerns about wildfires in Hawaii. Hawaii could experience increased precipitation in the summer and dry, drought conditions through the fall and winter, Frazier said. Of particular concern, she said, is the increased risk of wildfires in Hawaii. “When we have more rain in the summer, fire season typically starts earlier because more grass and material that can be used as fuel for fires grows and dries out over the winter.”
- Atlantic hurricane season may slow down in activity. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, said there are already signs that El Niño will cause an increase in westerly winds in the upper tropical Atlantic Ocean. These winds help prevent tropical cyclones from forming.
- Crowds are expected during Pacific hurricane season. Klotzbach said El Niño tends to significantly increase activity in the eastern North Pacific, especially in the central and western parts of the basin. Rising water temperatures, increased low-water spin, and reduced vertical wind shear all contribute to this increase.
The Climate Center’s Rolleux said it’s not all doom and gloom. “Please note that El Niño-related impacts are not necessarily of concern.”
“While the likelihood of more extreme weather events in regions around the globe increases, there are also positives, such as potentially lower heating costs in the northern United States during the winter months. A likely reduction in tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin is also a potential benefit.”
Frazier said that unlike other weather events, there is advance notice of El Niño.
“This is one of the few events that you can actually plan six months in advance,” Frazier said. “There aren’t many other features in our world of weather forecasting that give us that much lead time.”
(This story has been updated to add new information.)
Dinah Boyles Pulver and Doyle Rice are national correspondents for USA TODAY and write about hurricanes, severe weather and climate change. Contact her at dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp at Bluesky or X, and Doyle at drice@usatoday.com.
