President Trump says the US “may visit Cuba” after the Iran war ends
President Donald Trump said the United States “may stop in Cuba after we finish” the Iran war.
WASHINGTON—Pursuing an economic deal. Change of government. military operations. Nothing.
After imposing an oil embargo on Cuba and pushing the country to the brink of a humanitarian crisis, the Trump administration appeared intent on imposing its will on Cuba. But as President Donald Trump begins to look beyond Iran, his options for what to do about Cuba appear diverse and thorny, all fraught with political minefields.
Launching a military attack could force the United States into an unpopular nation-building mission. A deal with Havana risks a revolt by Cuban-American members of President Trump’s party, furious at the thought of negotiating with the regime that forced their families into exile.
In many ways, it’s a lose-lose-lose situation, said Michael Bustamante, a professor of Cuban and Cuban American studies at the University of Miami.
“This is a domestic political issue and there appears to be little benefit to those involved,” he said, adding: “None of these options seem particularly obvious or viable.”
At a rally in Phoenix on April 17, President Trump spoke about the U.S. military and the capture of deposed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, before saying that “soon this great power” will “bring a new dawn to Cuba. We are going to support them with respect to Cuba.”
President Trump declared, “Now wait and see what happens,” citing the “atrocities” faced by the Miami-area Cuban-American exile community and their families on the island.
But which path he chooses could leave lasting repercussions on Cuba and the U.S.
Here are some of the options the Trump administration has suggested regarding Cuba:
I. Economic transactions
In late February, the president announced that he was sending Secretary of State Marco Rubio to negotiate at a very high level with Cuban officials. It was then that he said the United States could “take over Cuba in a friendly manner.”
People with knowledge of the administration’s plans told USA TODAY in early March that President Trump was considering an economic-focused deal with Cuba. The talks included the remaining members of the Castro family on the island, as well as agreements on ports, energy and tourism. The US government has also indicated that it will lift some sanctions.
John Cavulich, president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, a trade group that has done business with Cuba since 1994, said a deal with Cuba appears to make the most sense given President Trump’s trading tendencies. In February, President Trump appeared to take an early step toward that goal by allowing U.S. companies to sell diesel products directly to Cuban companies.
“I don’t think anyone would be surprised to ultimately see Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Havana negotiating with the Cuban government,” Kavrich said, referring to Trump’s advisers who often negotiate on behalf of the president.
But negotiating with Havana’s power brokers, especially the descendants of Fidel and Raul Castro, the brothers who started the 1959 revolution, may be a red line for Cuban Americans to cross.
Due to the long-standing economic embargo imposed by the United States on Cuba, neither Fidel, who died 10 years ago, nor Raul, 94, will be able to lead the country once the sanctions are lifted. It does not exclude their relatives.
Cuban-born Rep. Carlos Gimenez, a Florida Republican whose district covers the Miami suburbs, told USA TODAY in an April 16 interview that it was unacceptable for someone associated with the Castro family to lead the country.
Instead, he said, U.S. officials should insist on constitutional and other changes that meet the requirements of a U.S. embargo on Cuba. These should take precedence over any economic agreement, he said.
“All they want is time, time to survive,” Jimenez said of the Cuban government. “And they’re very good at it.”
II. Change of government
In his comments to reporters, Rubio stressed that any economic agreement with Cuba would have to involve a complete change in Cuba’s political and economic footing.
Cuban officials, from President Miguel Diaz-Canel to Deputy Foreign Minister Josefina Vidal, have said in recent interviews that they are open to dialogue and even an economic deal with the United States — as long as they can govern as they please.
How to force Cuba into the long-term structural changes that the Trump administration and most Cuban Americans want without sending in U.S. troops remains one of the difficult questions facing the administration.
At a House hearing on April 16, Michael Kozak, a senior official at the State Department’s Office of Western Hemisphere Affairs, emphasized the complexity of the issue, answering tough questions from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle.
At one point, he began to explain how the State Department was open to hearing suggestions from Cuban officials on how to reform the government.
The subcommittee chair, Cuban-American Rep. Maria Salazar, R-Miami, cut him off. “We will not do any business with the Castro family,” she said. “They have to go and we have to start all over again.”
Bustamante said the administration could take steps beyond military action to pressure Cuba into fundamental changes, such as halting remittances to Cuba, suspending flights and imposing penalties on countries that supply the island with oil.
“But that risks creating a humanitarian situation,” he says. “They’re not really into it.”
III. military action
If Cuba refuses to make major changes, another option President Trump could resort to is military intervention, which many observers see as the riskiest.
On April 15, people familiar with the planning effort confirmed to USA TODAY that the Pentagon had been planning and secretly planning a possible military operation in Cuba in case President Trump chose that path.
Two days later, a U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton surveillance drone was tracked on radar as it circled along Cuba’s southern coast for six hours, including a two-hour hold pattern near Santiago de Cuba and a two-hour hold pattern near Havana.
The US military would not comment on the purpose of the flight. But similar drones are being used by the Pentagon for surveillance missions in war zones such as the Black Sea, Persian Gulf and off the coast of Venezuela, near the Russian-Ukrainian conflict zone, in the run-up to the U.S.’s dramatic takeover of Maduro on January 3, according to Flightradar 24, an online global aviation tracking service.
“Well, it depends on your definition of military action,” President Trump told reporters on April 17 when asked about reports about Air Force One and whether the Pentagon was preparing for military action in Cuba.
Brian Fonseca, director of the Jack D. Gordon Public Policy Institute at Florida International University, who studies Cuba’s military, said a military invasion would be an easy win for the United States, given Cuba’s deteriorating military equipment and questionable loyalty among its soldiers.
He said flying reconnaissance planes near the Cuban coast would help remind Havana of President Trump’s military card.
“This preserves the credibility of the outlook for military options,” Fonseca said.
On Capitol Hill, senators leading the Armed Services and Foreign Affairs committees were cautious about the Pentagon’s plans as they prepared to return to their districts.
Armed Services Chairman Roger Wicker said he has not spoken with the Pentagon about military plans for Cuba or with President Trump about his vision for the island nation. “I’m not part of those discussions,” he said. “It seems to me that we should now focus on two wars,” he added.
Bustamante said the fact that there was no U.S. indictment against Díaz-Canel or other Cuban leaders, even though the U.S. had previously filed charges and indictments occurred weeks before Maduro’s arrest, suggests military options may not be at the top of the list.
And the fallout from military operations will pose a major challenge for the Trump administration, he said. Cuba’s infrastructure and private sector are far inferior to Venezuela’s, making Cuba’s nation-building a more complex mission.
“Is that what Trump’s base really wants?” Bustamante said.
IV. Nothing
Another, less discussed option would be for the Trump administration to do nothing. It is also possible that they will continue to apply pressure through an oil embargo and wait to see if changes emerge from within.
The Trump administration is currently aiming to end the war with Iran, while taking a conservative stance regarding Cuba.
“When this is over, I might stop by Cuba, but Cuba is a country that has been badly run by Castro for many years,” the president said in response to questions from USA TODAY at the White House on April 13.
A senior White House official told USA TODAY following Trump’s remarks that Cuba remains a priority. He wants to resolve the Iran conflict before making any decisions regarding Cuba, the person said.
At the end of March, the president allowed Russian oil tankers to arrive on Cuba’s shores, providing the country with short-term relief from a fuel shortage. Russia said it would send a second ship in response. He said Mexico may also send fuel.
President Trump told reporters there was no problem, despite earlier threats to impose tariffs on countries exporting Cuban crude oil. But officials speaking to USA TODAY said the threat of tariffs still exists. Mexico and other countries know what the consequences will be, the official said.
Allowing more ships into the port would buy both the U.S. and Cuba time for additional negotiations.
But if it drags on, the president may have to contend with a strong Cuban-American voting base that had pinned its hopes on Trump-led change in the communist country.
Jimenez, the only Cuban-born member of Congress, said President Trump has given the Cuban diaspora the highest level of hope they have had in a very long time.
“I think not following through is worse than doing nothing,” he said.
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