CNN
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At the heart of the Kremlin’s complex relationship with the Middle East has long been awkward tension.

On the one hand, Russian alliances and economic influences have traditionally been strong.

Meanwhile, as one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers, Russia tends to benefit when things in energy-rich regions are disappointed and the market is surprised.

That’s exactly what’s unfolding for now, and the Kremlin is benefiting from seeing Iran’s allies being dramatically weakened by Israeli airstrikes.

In the face of that, Russia has a lot to lose.

Iran was a particularly useful “strategic partner” for the Kremlin, not only sharing a light-heartedness on Western values ​​and influence, but also provided the Russian army with a vast squadron of Shahed air drones, allowing for the relentless bombardment of Ukraine.

Much of that drone production has certainly been around since its move to Russia. However, Ukraine’s own drones are shocking the Russian production facility behind the frontline, which could ultimately overlook the once-reliable supply of Iran.

There is also a faint, painful sense of humiliation, when the Kremlin rises to see yet another important Middle Eastern alliance under ferocious artillery fire, and doesn’t want to intervene or intervene.

Moscow, of course, issued a strong verbal statement denounced Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities as “illegal,” adding that the strike is creating “an unacceptable threat to international security.”

He also accused Western countries of manipulating the situation and “resolving political scores.”

However, Russia’s alliance with Iran did not extend to defending the Islamic Republic, and there was no offer from the Kremlin for military support.

It is certainly true that Israel’s purpose, the collapse of the Iranian regime, will now add Iran to the growing Kremlin list of lost Middle Eastern alliances and client states, including Iraq, Libya and, more recently, Syria.

But here’s another troublesome tension. Things aren’t as bad as they look for Moscow. In fact, this latest Middle Eastern conflict works very well in the hands of the Kremlin.

The Iran-Israel conflict has also opened up tarping in addition to the welcoming financial blowout, courtesy of the price of crude oil spikes, to the Kremlin’s diplomatic opportunities, which have faced years of international isolation in the war in Ukraine.

Russia has never stopped looking at itself as a major player in international diplomacy, as it has a legitimate place on the top table alongside the US and China.

Currently, the Kremlin has the challenges that emerge as essential US partners when it comes to being able to work productively with the US and ultimately patching the region again.

As the only major political leader with direct boundaries between Iranians, Israelis and the United States, Russian President Vladimir Putin has already carefully utilised his vital position, signing his willingness to cast Russia as a key power broker in the Middle East.

In a recent call to the White House, Putin reminded President Donald Trump of how Russia has long been an ally of the US on Iran’s nuclear issue.

It appears that the White House may be open to that idea. Following the call, President Trump expressed his willingness to view Russian leaders as potential mediators of the conflict.

Since the start of President Trump’s second term, Washington and Moscow have been desperate to find a way to broaden their relationship beyond the narrow focus on the Ukrainian war. Iran’s fate and its nuclear ambitions, along with Arctic economic cooperation and space exploration, unexpectedly re-emerged as another field of potential common interest.

It’s a huge boon for the Kremlin, and perhaps for President Trump.

Not so much for the troubled Ukraine.

As the escalating Middle Eastern crisis and the US appears to be shaking on the brink of increasing direct involvement, global attention has suddenly diverted from the ongoing war in Ukraine intensifying Russian drone and missile strikes, robbing the devastation in Israel and Iran.

And for at least a while, the focus appears to have shifted firmly to the role of the Kremlin as a potential peace supervision in the Middle East, continuing to move away from that part and approach home in the war.

CNN
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India and Canada signaled a reset of relations on Tuesday, agreeing to reestablish a high committee of each other’s capital following the Ottawa charges that New Delhi allegedly involved in the killing of Sikh separatists in the soil.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Canadian Countermark Carney, who took office in March, announced the move after meeting bystanders of groups of seven summits in the Rockies, Canada.

Ottawa and New Delhi have agreed to “designate new high commissioners with the aim of returning to regular service to citizens and businesses in both countries,” according to a statement from Carney’s office.

The move comes after former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and other Canadian officials publicly accused New Delhi of being involved in the murder of prominent Sikh separatists and Canadian citizen Harpi Singh Nijar in the suburbs of Vancouver in 2023.

Canadian authorities said they shared the evidence with Indian authorities. However, Indian officials repeatedly denied Canada’s provision of evidence, calling the allegations “absurd and motivated.”

Relations between the two countries have plummeted after the accusations, urging claims from Canada’s India, which has a “terrorist” banishment, urgent ban on TAT diplomatic stolen, a temporary suspension of visa services, and “terrorists” and encourage “anti-Indian activities.”

According to CNN affiliate CBC, Carney said earlier this month it makes sense to have leaders in the world’s most populous country around the table when there were “big challenges.”

Carney also attended this year’s rally, inviting leaders from several other non-member countries in Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Ukraine, Australia and South Korea.

There were no signs of tension on Tuesday as the Canadian Prime Minister shook hands in Alberta, Western Canada, which he calls “great honor” to host Indian leaders in the G7.

“India has arrived at the G7 since 2018. And it is a testament to the importance of your country, your leadership and the issues we aim to tackle together,” Carney told reporters.

Modi’s comments on Kearney were equally welcomed.

“We had a great meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney,” he wrote about X. “India and Canada have led to strong belief in democracy, freedom and the rule of law. Prime Minister Carney and I look forward to working closely to add momentum to the friendship between India and Canada.”

The Canadian Prime Minister’s Office said the two discussed opportunities to “deepen engagement” in areas such as technology, digital transition, food security and key minerals.

Neither leader has publicly mentioned the recent tensions in relations or discussion of Nijar’s murder.

Nijar, who was shot outside a Sikh temple in Surrey, British Columbia, was shot by a masked man in June 2023, is a prominent campaigner in the homeland of independent Sikhs in northern India and is known as Khalistan.

The campaign for the creation of Kalistan has long been considered a national security threat by New Delhi and has been banned in India. And many groups associated with the movement are listed as “terrorist organizations” under Indian law.

However, the movement has achieved a level of sympathy from some of the Sikh community, particularly in the diaspora.

CNN affiliate CTV has seen scores of Sikh protesters waving the Kalistan flag in Calgary, Alberta, since the start of the summit on Sunday.

Some protesters expressed their anger at Modi’s visit, while others demanded justice in the murder of Nijar.

When asked about Nijjar’s murder at a press conference after speaking to Modi, Carney said: “There’s an ongoing judicial process and we need to be more careful about commentary.”

Carney told CBC’s Radio Canada last week that he spoke with Modi about Nijar when asked about Sikh separatists and ongoing police investigations last week.

CNN
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The consequences of the critical conflict between Iran and Israel can depend on one simple number.

Iran has fired about 700 medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) in Israel over the past 14 months, leaving 300 to 1,300 remaining in its stockpile, according to Israeli military data and expert analysis.

This remaining Arsenal has been the subject of Israel’s heavy air attacks over the past five days, with the IDF targeting at least a third of its surface-to-surface launchers launching MRBMS, possibly further reducing Iran’s ability to return to Israel.

That Arsenal depletion could exacerbate Iran’s desire to get Iran out of the conflict and strengthen the violent nature of Israeli campaigns in the coming days, analysts said Israeli air forces have been barely challenged and Israeli Iran’s nightly assaults appear to be present recently.

While there are few reliable estimates of Iran’s stockpiles, Commander Kenneth MacKenzie, US commander of Centcom, said in 2023 that more than 3,000 missiles have different ranges. Ben Ben Tareble, a senior fellow at the Democracy Foundation, said these 1,000-2,000 people were medium distance and could span 1,400 kilometers between Iran and Israel. He called the estimate “at best it was envelope calculations.”

According to the IDF, Iran used 120 MRBMS in Israel on April 13 last year, with another 200 on October 1, with a total of 380 over the past five days. This tally would deplete the overall known Arsenal at a total of 700. But whether or not Tehran will leave an existential crisis on missile deterrence will depend on both the size of its initial stockpile and the damage Israel has inflicted on Iranian military infrastructure since it began to snag across the country on Friday.

Ben Talebri suggested that this could leave Iran with 1,300 MRBMs. Other estimates were more pessimistic. Dr. Eir Pino, a retired Israeli Navy Intelligence agent, said he is currently a senior researcher at the Sedat Center for Strategic Studies.

It brought serious casualties by glimpses of some of the damage caused to Iran’s air defense and missile production from the Israeli attack on October 26th. Admiral Tony Radhakin, chief of British defense staff, said in a December speech that 100 Israeli aircraft launched many missiles from miles away, “threw down almost the entire Iranian air defense system, destroying Iran’s ability to produce ballistic missiles for a year.”

However, recently Israel has amplified the threat posed by Iranian missile production. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday that Iran could increase the production of ballistic missiles to 300 a month, leaving 20,000 in six years as Israel launched an air campaign. He provided no evidence of his claim.

Pinko said the 2024 strike “destroyed major facilities for the manufacture of ballistic missile motors” in Iran, creating severe restrictions on the country’s supply chain. Still, he points out that potential support from China over the next few months could once again boost production.

Iran would not want to sink “less than four digits” into the MRBMS arsenal, Ben Tareble said.

“For the Islamic Republic, quantity has its own quality,” he said, adding that Iran “is actually a traditional fighter jet in crisis management, and that these ballistic missiles must be spent in times of war, not in times of crisis.”