CNN
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US President Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities puts the Middle East in a volatile position and now looks at Tehran’s next move.

Speaking in Istanbul, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragut said on Sunday that his country has “various options” when deciding how to respond to the US attacks.

From hitting US bases in the region to closing a critical waterway to the world’s shipping, Iran may be pondering its next move. Everything poses risks inherent in the Islamic Republic, Israel and the United States.

What should you know about this:

Instructing US involvement in the conflict could activate the rest of the Iraqi, Yemen and Syrian proxies that previously launched attacks on American assets in the region.

Iran’s strongest ally in the region was once Lebanon’s Hezbollah, but the group has been significantly weakened by Israeli attacks.

The Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) says the US has a presence on a total of 19 sites across the region, eight of which believe analysts have a permanent presence in the US. As of June 13th, the CFR estimated that around 40,000 US troops were in the Middle East.

In Iraq, for example, there were 2,500 US troops in the second half of last year. Iran’s attacks on these forces are not conceivable. In 2020, Iran’s missile attacks on US garrisons left over more than 100 soldiers with traumatic brain damage.

Iranians have said “once the United States enters this war and attacks nuclear facilities, they will oppose the US troops in the region and retaliate against the interests of the US.”

The revival of attacks on US assets from Yemen is already on the table. The Iran-backed by Yemeni Iran, the Hooti rebels had previously vowed to attack American ships in the Red Sea if the US joined the conflict with Iran. A well-known Houthi official said in a social media post early Sunday that he “must endure the consequences” of the US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

It is unclear whether this marks the end of the US ceasefire that hit in May, and Washington said the group would halt its military campaign against the Hoosis in exchange for stopping attacks on US interests in the region.

Knowing that they cannot fully win the conflict between Israel and the United States, experts say Tehran can try to engage in a war of attrition.

Iran also has the power to influence “the entire Gulf commercial transport,” Ravid said.

So far, there has been no material disruption to the global oil flow. However, if oil exports are destroyed, or if Iran tries to block the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil market could face an existential crisis.

The Straits link the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and are an important channel for the export of oil and liquefied natural gas from the Middle East to the global market. According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, approximately 20 million barrels of oil flows through the straits every day.

Prominent advisors to Iran’s top leader have already called for missile strikes and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“After the attack on the nuclear equipment of America’s Fordow, it’s our turn,” warned Hossain Shariatmadari, editor-in-chief of the Hardline Kayhan newspaper, a well-known conservative voice who previously identified himself as the “representative” of Khamenei.

Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of Amwaji News Outlet, told CNN that geographic leverage over global transportation will give Iran “stimulate the oil market, giving him the ability to raise oil prices, collapse Trump’s economic agenda, collapse Trump’s economic agenda, collapse and collapse.”

Some experts say Iran is very likely to compete for a nuclear bomb now, even if the current regime collapses and new leaders are introduced.

“Trump has just ensured that Iran will become a nuclear-weapon state in the next five to ten years,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, DC, “especially if the administration changes.”

Parsi said that even if the regime collapses and new military elements assume power, they are far more hawkish than the current regime, and are likely to head towards nuclear weapons as their sole deterrent.

Experts have previously said it is likely that Iran moved stocks of enriched uranium from major nuclear facilities amid the Israeli attack. Nuclear power plants that generate electricity for private purposes use uranium that is enriched from 3.5% to 5%. Enriched to a higher level, it can use uranium to create bomb Israel, and the US accuses Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons. Tehran claims that the programme is peace.

Iran is also likely to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or the NPT, pledging to launch bombs under it.

“Iran’s response is likely not just to military retaliation. The NPT’s withdrawal is highly likely,” Ali Vez, director of the Iran project for the International Crisis Group, said in X.

Iran’s first response to a US attack on US nuclear land was to attack Israel, not US bases.

According to Israel’s Ministry of Health, the Iranian missile was attacked by a group of Tel Aviv buildings, and 86 people were hospitalized with injuries overnight and Sunday morning.

Knowing that it may not be able to sustain a complete conflict with the US, Iran may simply ask to perpetuate the status quo and fight Israel alone, hoping that Trump will reduce his involvement after Sunday’s strike.

Trump may follow the same playbook as the 2020 attack that killed Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani, Shabani told CNN’s Becky Anderson.

At the time, Trump “want to send a big message, get the headlines, show us our resolve, and then avoid a wider war,” Shabani said.

Iran may feel they have to retaliate to save their faces, but like what happened in 2020, it could be a bloodless response, just like when it launched a barrage of missiles at a US base in Iraq.

Two military analysts said Iran could resort to “asymmetric” measures (such as terrorism and cyberattacks) as Israeli attacks reduced Iran’s military capabilities.

“I think the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) is probably trying to figure out what capabilities it has left as missile stockpiles are declining,” said CNN national security analyst David Sanger.

“I think (the IRGC) will be a little cautious. I think it will take us all to all the asymmetrical things of cyber, terrorism. I think they are probably looking for something the US can’t put into traditional defenses,” he added.

Similarly, Major General James “Spider” Marks, head of geopolitical strategies for investment bank Academy Securities, told CNN that Israel “has done a pretty good job of undermining Iran’s ability to launch a rather robust missile inventory.”

But despite being “injured,” the IRGC still has “a tremendous ability,” he said. “It already has the capacity to be within the region and then outside the region. We are vulnerable all over the world, where IRGC can make an impact and make things happen asymmetrically.”

Iran refused to return to the negotiation table during the Israeli attack.

On Sunday, Aragut said he didn’t know there was “a space for diplomacy” after the US forces attacked at Iran’s nuclear facilities.

“They crossed a very big red line by attacking nuclear facilities. …We must respond based on our legitimate rights to self-defense,” Araguchi said.

By doing so, Parsi said, “The Iranians cornered themselves.”

“Their aim is to force Trump to stop Netanyahu’s war, thereby demonstrating his ability and willingness to use American leverage over Netanyahu,” writes Parsi. “But the flip side is that Tehran gave Israel a veto on diplomacy from the US. Simply continuing the war, Israel can block talks between the US and Iran.”

Iranian and European officials met in Geneva on Friday.

Speaking on Sunday, Araguchi said the US has decided to “bloat” diplomacy.

“Last week, when Israel decided to blow up its diplomacy, we were in negotiations with the US. This week, when the US decided to blow up its diplomacy, we had discussions with the E3 (a group of European ministers)/EU,” Araghchi said in X.

“Iranians are reluctant to negotiate with guns in their heads, and the guns have already been triggered,” Vaez, of the international crisis group, told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour.

“A more likely situation is that the discussion has now ended.”

CNN
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The bodies of three hostages, an Israeli Defense Force (IDF) soldier and two civilians, were all recovered from Gaza in all attacks killed in the October 7 attack.

A special operation carried out by the Israeli Security Agency (ISA) and the IDF involved the civilian bodies, Ophra Cader and Jonathan Samelano and soldier Shay Levinson, who were recovered from the Gaza Strip on Saturday, the ISA and IDF said in a joint statement on Sunday.

Ofra Keidar from the Kibbutz Be’eri community was killed by Hamas extremists on October 7, 2023. The 71-year-old body was taken to Gaza, where it was held. Cader was the wife and mother of three. Her husband was also killed in Hamas attack.

“On that dark Saturday, Obra, as usual, took a walk through the fields she loved.

“Ofara was one of the women Beeri became a thriving kibbutz, and set an example for other women while showing strength and leadership skills. She left behind three children and seven grandchildren.”

According to the Hostage and Missing Family Forum, Cader worked at the dairy farm for 30 years, caring for newborns. She then moved to a local petting zoo where she worked for 15 years. “Everyone who visited her home could see her family, especially the poodle, and her greatest love of caring for her garden and houseplants,” the Forum said.

Samelano, 21, from Tel Aviv, was killed by Hamas militants who robbed him after fleeing the Nova Music Festival.

According to the forum, he was a talented DJ and was always surrounded by friends. “Even at his early age, he was a mental entrepreneur and a savvy businessman who dreamed of developing his career in event production,” the organization said.

Israeli authorities and Samelano’s family allegees that employees of UNRWA, the main UN body of Palestinian refugees, were involved in acquiring Samelano’s body.

A UN investigation last year found that nine UNRWA employees were “” involved in the October 7 attack and were not working at the agency. The investigation began after 1,200 Israeli people died, denounced some non-WA employees of participating in the attack.

Levinson, the double national and tank commander of Germany and Israel, was killed in the battle on October 7, a joint statement from the ISA-IDF said. The 19-year-old body was taken to Gaza.

According to the forum, Levinson, a native of Givat Avni in Lower Galilee, is a “exceptional player” on the volleyball team and “serves as a model for Jewish cooperation.”

“Shay chose to refrain from receiving active athlete status and instead chose meaningful combat services in IDF,” the forum said. Levinson was a quiet and exceptional man, adding that it was ambitious and ambitious.

Overall, the forum states: “In addition to sadness and pain, their body return provides some degree of comfort to families who have been waiting for 625 days in pain, uncertainty and doubt.”

It was also sought that the remaining 50 hostages in Gaza are a priority as Israel continues to face conflict with Iran. “In particular, I would like to emphasize that recapturing the remaining 50 hostages is key to achieving a full Israeli victory, especially against the current background of military development and the important achievements of Iran.”

In a statement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed his sincere apology to Cader, Samelano and Levinson’s families, and thanked Israeli soldiers for their “successful operation.”

Israel’s sustained military campaign in Gaza continues. Over the past 24 hours, the conflict has killed 51 people and injured 104 people in Gaza, the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza said in an update on Sunday.

Since Israel launched its military attack on October 7, 2023, the total number of deaths on the strip has reached 55,959, with 131,242 people injured, he said.

CNN
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After an overnight strike against the US Iranian secret nuclear program, the most important question is at least the “known unknown,” the rest of it. This answer could be the ultimate arbitrator of President Donald Trump’s decision to define the region for decades to come and embark on another Middle East conflict.

It is also the answer that is troubled by the elliptical and whimsical nature of intelligence. On the one hand, public debates of the nuclear sites of Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan should not want to let all of that nuclear secrets live there. (Iran says its programme is completely peaceful, but UN nuclear observers reported that they have found uranium particles enriched at up to 83%.

As Israel claims, if there are hidden elements in Iran’s nuclear program, it certainly wouldn’t be housed in the same place as UN inspectors roam, and in the case of Foldau, there was public debate about what could allow American bombs to penetrate its deep caves.

The raw materials needed for a nuclear bomb may be small. 20 kilograms of highly concentrated uranium are sufficient. Some of the components of devices fit into the minivan. This could be hidden anywhere in Iran. The skills needed to create weapons are offensive, and the expertise of humans who have been destroying Israel in both the last 10 days, strikes targeting key personnel and have been kicked out more permanently in the last 10 years.

It is difficult to imagine that Iran could suddenly make this leap if he could make this leap under the heavy fire of Israeli Air Force.

But this is unknown and Israel cannot have it in both ways. If Iranian programs have advanced and claim to be secret, there is also the risk that things you don’t know are happening. Is Iran just waiting to assemble all the necessary elements on other sites, as well as the atomic bomb? Only time can be seen.

The rebuttal is also convincing. Israel was able to kill Iranian nuclear scientists and military commands. They slept at home. The first wave of the strike on June 13th hit certain rooms in the apartment block. There is no perfect operation. You may know a lot about the Washington and Tel Aviv combination.

It was not only the Fortress of the Fordau mountains that were attacked. The dust has been cleared and the satellite image makes the battle damage rating more clear, so you can know that a target you didn’t know about a week ago is hit. For opponents of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, it should provide some comfort, as almost everyone would ban almost a handful of Iran’s hardliners.

But the Saturday night strike may not remove everything — not all experts and fissile material. The struggle is to chase what is left behind. It is to pursue survivors and find opportunities for panicked elements of a nuclear project to make a mistake when scattering or picking tiles.

What remains, if any, would be part of an unknown Iranian programme. Tehran may decide that it is better to reveal or advance this greatest secret only after the threat of an Israeli strike has reced. Does it make sense to hurry it out now at the height of surveillance and artillery fire?

Diplomaty says Trump is re-registering now, “Now is the time of peace!” However, his face has completely changed compared to a week ago. Iranian officials had hinted at media that may be willing to give up enrichment during talks last week. Demand placed on top of it could now be concentrated on its ballistic missile program. It appears to have already happened at a fast pace, through the violent use of missiles targeting Israel, and through the Israeli strike, which claims to have taken out most of the launchers as a result of the Israeli strike.

The fact that Iran’s wish list for negotiations has now undergone a major change reveals the challenge of this moment to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Kamenei, as much of what it wanted to maintain is being destroyed or used. His air was owned by a hostile Air Force, his nuclear programmes were heavily damaged, his military infrastructure and orders had to be shattered and replaced in order to adapt and survive. This limits his immediate and preferred response options. A flat-out strike against a US base is merely a repeated violent US retaliation, and after this much of this telegraph it could prove ineffective.

Iran generally relies on asymmetrical responses to compensate for its smaller budgets and capabilities. This may be seen in the European capital and the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days. To survive, you need to not only show some deterrent, but also deescalate.

But the ability to see Iran’s long views and its strategic patience works in its advantage. There is no real election cycle that plagues Ayatollah’s decision-making. Iranians have time to reorganize and react when the fever is low.

However, the US has a poor track record of success and application in the region. Last night, it gained the questionable distinction that in just 20 years it bombed a complete national sweep of the country from Syria to Afghanistan. However, it failed to remove Syria’s Assad regime, and despite years of attempts, when last year’s drastic changes removed one of the proxies in Iran’s major regions. And the longest war in Afghanistan ended with severe humiliation. Iraq also failed after years of destruction and loss, starting with contested information about weapons of mass destruction.

Iran is not Iraq, and last night was March 20, 2003, when the US’s unfortunate invasion of that country began. Trump’s ambitions in Iran had no fundamental elements, and its goal was widely supported by allies and perhaps within reach. However, the questionable track record of the US and the hub-harmed atmosphere of Trump’s overwhelming use of power should amplify local alarms more than unknown regions in the future.

CNN
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Warehouses in northeastern Nigeria have low food stocks from nonprofits to treat malnourished children and pregnant women.

The organization, Action Against Hunger (ACF), is running a project to combat malnutrition that relied on funding from the United States Organization for International Development (USAID), and procures much-needed medical food bags. However, the project was interrupted intermittently, and ACF was unable to source sufficient nutrient-rich foods during the peak malnutrition season.

This is one of many emergency life-saving projects left in Limbo and require additional resources following the Trump administration’s dismantling of USAID.

But now, a group of former USAID staff members have come together to connect large donors with such cost-effective projects.

The main goal is to “save as many lives as possible,” said Robert Rosenbaum, a former USAID portfolio manager and one of the people who spearheaded the initiative called Project Resource Optimization (Pro). “At this point, there are really people dying as a result of these (budget) decisions and this suspension of work.”

Rosenbaum is thinking about cutting down American programs that address malnutrition, extreme poverty and disease prevention, like what keeps him up after losing his job earlier this year.

So he and the other laid-off USAID workers decide to do something. They have begun reviewing projects being implemented by the USAID Partner Organization.

They gradually built a spreadsheet – called the Emergency and Review Project List – set up a meeting between donors who wanted the most important and cost-effective program and support but didn’t know where to start.

The spreadsheet was first inspired by reach outs from the foundations of several small families seeking expert guidance on where to put their dollars amid the initial uncertainty surrounding US government aid cuts. But it quickly grew into something big.

It has been revealed that Rosenbaum has the opportunity to “expand the overall pool of private philanthropy” and bring donations from people who may not be considering giving to international aid projects until this year.

“There’s someone who came out of woodworking and literally wrote an email to us that I should have saved $100,000, $200,000, $1 million.

Earlier this week, the Pro team launched a tool for smaller donors to contribute online, crowdfunding for some of the most important aid projects.

Now anyone can make one-time or monthly contributions to the team’s “Speed ​​Response Fund” to support vetted projects in Sudan, Haiti, Nigeria and more.

“For most of the humanitarian projects we’ve talked about… if the funds don’t flow this summer, the lights will go out and it’ll be very difficult for you to get up,” Rosenbaum said.

“What we provide funders is that the fixed costs that are undertaken for these projects have already been taken over by the US government. The staff are already employed, trained, they are installed. In many cases, products are sitting in the warehouse,” Rosenbaum said. “There is all of these efficiency.

“But the flip side is that the cost of shutting them down is very high,” he added. He said it usually takes years for local organizations to build trust with authorities, leaders and communities.

In Mali, an organization called the Alliance for International Medical Action (ALIMA) was at risk of shutting down a project providing medical care to fewer than five children, breastfeeding mothers, and providing mobile health clinics to those who were internally displaced.

“We were forced to suspend activities and reduce activities at various points,” said Carlota Ruiz, head of Grant Management, adding that more than half of Arima’s operating budget in Mali came from USAID. “One of the main concerns about navigating suspension or project closures was the risks to our reliability and our relationship with the Ministry of Health and our relationship with the community we work with.”

A few weeks ago, the organization faced the prospect of shutting down critical services, but now the new grant allows Alima to provide 70,000 medical consultations to those in need and treat more than 5,000 children with severe acute malnutrition.

“We reached out to us by saying they were interested in funding the project in Mali and that the analysis they did was largely based on this decision,” Lewis told CNN. “It was a great relief and a breath of fresh air for all of us.”

Meanwhile, in Nigeria, the ACF says it’s close to securing funds to maintain one of its malnutrition projects after coordination with a professional team.

The funds will be directed to raising more readily available therapeutic foods (RUTFs). Timing was “very important,” according to ACF staff on the ground.

“June, July and August, including part of September, are Nigeria’s highest months in terms of malnutrition and food insecurity,” a staff member who asked not to name it told CNN. “Therefore, having these supplies in a situation where (other) fundraising mechanisms is stagnant makes a huge difference in terms of continuity in lifesaving activities.”

But funding is only for that one project. ACF also supports programs in northern Nigeria, providing food aid, clean water and sanitation, and supporting hundreds of clinics.

“It makes a lot of sense and it’s very useful to ensure continuity in activity and save the lives of thousands of children,” ACF workers said of the grant being finalized. “But this project cannot address every other aspect of our work.”

President Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities puts the Middle East in a volatile position, analysts say they are now looking at Tehran’s next move.

In areas already on the edge, Trump’s airstrikes have put several options on the table for Iran, analysts say. All take risks inherent in Iran and bring about the future survival of the country’s leaders.

Diplomacy: The first is that Iran can return to the negotiation table.

Iran “we could declare that they are asking for negotiations and ending the war. We will negotiate on the basis of zero (uranium) enrichment,” Yadrin said.

Yadrin said Iran may leave the UN Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), but promised not to develop bombs under it. However, Iran’s “ability to build bombs will not exist in next year or two,” he added.

But will Iranian conservative hardliners tolerate a purely diplomatic response to US military attacks on Iranian soil?

county: Another option is for Iran to retaliate, dragging the US and the wider Middle East into complex, drawn-out conflicts.

Iran said “once the United States participates in this war and attacks nuclear facilities, they will oppose the US troops in the region and retaliate against the interests of the United States.”

Iran could also choose to close the Strait of Hormuz, the main transport oil route, to give it the power to affect “the whole Gulf commercial transport.”

Prominent advisors to Iran’s top leader have already called for missile strikes and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“After the attack on the nuclear equipment of America’s Fordow, it’s our turn,” warned Hossain Shariatmadari, editor-in-chief of the Hardline Kayhan newspaper, a well-known conservative voice who previously identified himself as Khamenei “the representative.”

Geographical leverage via global transport gives Iran the ability to “shock the oil market, raise oil prices, promote inflation and collapse Trump’s economic agenda,” Middle Eastern scholar Mohammad Ali Shabani told CNN.

There are no easy options: Khamenei is likely to respond by “making a decision,” CNN analyst Aaron David Miller added that “it’s “nearly impossible” to imagine this 86-year-old leader essentially maintaining a revolution and passing it over to one of his successors.