USA TODAY Network journalists spoke with holiday shoppers about the outlook for tariff rebates in 2026. Many said it could help them pay their bills or regain some financial security they recently lost.
Will Americans get a tariff refund in 2026? Here’s what people are saying
Americans are sharing their hopes and questions about the possibility of a 2026 tariff rebate and what $2,000 will mean for their lives.
Last year, Ruby and Nathaniel Jumper tried to save up for a cross-border move.
The couple, who live in Mercedes, Texas, decided to move to Tennessee in January in search of better job opportunities and a larger apartment for their family. However, I have been frustrated many times by bills, unexpected expenses, and high prices for groceries.
“Honestly, it’s been tough,” Ruby Jumper said, adding that tight finances necessitated difficult decisions this holiday season. “Usually we get three or four presents, but this year we only got one,” she said of her three children, ages 17, 11 and 8.
The Jumpers are keeping their money hidden as much as possible, so they’re keeping a close eye on one idea floating around Washington: $2,000 rebate checks.
In recent months, President Donald Trump has repeatedly previewed the idea of a tariff dividend that would give low- and moderate-income Americans thousands of dollars paid for with funds generated by global import taxes.
The initiative comes as polls show Americans are increasingly dissatisfied with President Trump’s handling of the economy, but it faces unexpected odds from bettors, logistical hurdles in Congress and concerns from some economists.
During the 2025 holiday season, USA TODAY Network journalists spoke with holiday shoppers across the country about the outlook for the 2026 tariff rebate and what $2,000 means to them.
For many, this idea sparked thoughts of paying the bills, regaining the financial stability they had recently lost. Buying a gift, they say, is just a reminder that dollars can’t buy what used to be.
“The prices are just outrageous,” said Milwaukee resident Andrei Tees, adding that he was buying fewer Christmas presents than usual for his family.
“The prices of things are really crazy.”
Will Americans receive a $2,000 check in 2026?
President Trump has repeatedly proposed rebates as a way to put money in Americans’ wallets at a time when they are struggling with years of cumulative inflation. However, the idea has not been fleshed out into detailed plans and faces an uncertain future.
Multiple independent reports have concluded that the money collected in tariff revenue is not enough to fund widespread rebate checks.
For example, the nonpartisan Tax Foundation said it would cost the government between $279.8 billion and $606.8 billion, depending on who receives the checks. That’s more than the $158.4 billion the tariffs would generate in 2025, the nonprofit found.
Economists have also expressed concern that the tariff dividend, like the coronavirus stimulus package, could contribute to higher inflation. And on Capitol Hill, the idea of rebate checks drew a lukewarm response from some Republicans as well.
“I think this is an idea that needs to take shape,” Rep. Ryan Zinke, R-Montana, told Politico this month. “Our debt is $36 trillion, $37 trillion. To me, I think the bus is full. If you want to add something, take something off the bus. That’s just me.”
“The administration is committed to putting the federal government’s historic tariff revenues to good use on behalf of the American people,” White House Press Secretary Khush Desai said in a statement.
“Reduce expenses”
In downtown New Orleans, Chris Thiel’s children brushed powdered sugar off their shirts while their parents thought about holiday shopping.
Teal and his wife, Shaunelle, who left the Riverwalk Outlet Mall with a few small purchases, including beignets for their children, said everything had gone up in price. The “tiniest toy” that cost $10 last year is now $20.
Chris Thiel, 46, added: “I’m going to spend less.” “Things don’t look very good here.”
Thiel is not alone. Polls released in December found that a majority of American adults intend to spend less on holiday shopping this year than last year, with many citing higher product prices as a reason. Analysts and retailers know this, and are counting on high-income earners to bring holiday sales.
“Upper-income shoppers account for a disproportionate share of the holiday shopping season and are likely to account for the majority of this year’s growth from the 2024 shopping season,” Jennifer Timmerman, senior investment strategy analyst at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said in a Nov. 24 analysis of Black Friday.
He said less affluent shoppers will look for discounts and rely on buy-now-pay-later financing to get them through the holidays.
Thiel said he has heard rumors about President Trump’s $2,000 tariff rebate plan and would believe it if he saw it. He said $2,000 would be helpful if he had three children, but it probably wouldn’t change their lives.
Shaunelle Thiel said she’s noticed that no matter how much money she has, the bills seem to add up quickly.
“It’s a lot of money, but it’s coming back just as quickly as it came in,” Chris Thiel said.
Hope to regain “decreased savings”
In Milwaukee, Laura Cresswell said she didn’t have high hopes for the customs inspection, pointing to a Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) inspection that was once floated but never materialized.
“I think this is a Trump TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) moment where he makes a big promise,” she said. “Like DOGE was supposed to send a check. I don’t think that’s going to happen.”
But if she was wrong, she said she would use the money to establish a rainy day fund.
“My savings were really depleted,” she said. “It would be really nice to have a little cushion again.”
Many people are in a similar position. A recent Bankrate survey found that 8 in 10 Americans won’t have increased their emergency savings in 2025, and more than a quarter of respondents said they have less savings now than they did in 2024.
Speaking to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, part of the USA TODAY Network, during Christmas shopping, Cresswell said she is spending less on presents this year because of the high cost of groceries.
“Many everyday things like groceries, eggs, meat, etc. have become very expensive,” she says. “You just try to save money throughout the year, but you end up with much less money left over.”
Economists and financial analysts say much of the pressure low- and middle-income people are feeling is due to stubborn inflation and persistently high prices at grocery stores.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation will peak at 9% in 2022, and food prices will rise further, with the growth rate of food consumed in households reaching 13%.
Inflation has since eased, falling to 2.7% in November, but U.S. shoppers are still paying nearly 30% more for groceries than they were six years ago, according to Datasembly’s Grocery Price Index, a data company that tracks retail prices.
“I’m back where I was before.”
Ryan McDonald and his wife Samantha took time off from work on Wednesday, December 10, to do some Christmas shopping for their daughters, ages 4 and 7.
McDonald, who lives in Voorhees, New Jersey, said she expects her holiday spending to be about the same this year as last year, although she does feel that prices are rising.
“Prices are a little bit higher and that’s definitely hurting us,” said McDonald, who works in the medical industry.
Asked about the possibility of tariff rebate checks, he said the money could be used, but he hoped the president would not impose import taxes in the first place.
“A $2,000 check would certainly be welcome, but it’s a roundabout way to get us back to where we were before,” he said.
Rishi Hahnenberg of Atlanta, Georgia, felt similarly. Her family’s big year-end purchase was a trip to Disney World with their two daughters, ages 8 and 12. To save money on plane tickets, she decided to go by car.
“We’ve definitely become more aware of what we’re spending our money on,” said Hahnenberg, 46.
A $2,000 tariff rebate probably won’t make much of a difference, she added.
“It’s really helpful.”
At a Goodwill store near downtown Indianapolis, Gervais Jamison said he could use the tariff rebate to eventually make a down payment on a vehicle.
“It would be helpful to have a car because I really need one,” she said.
Mr. Jamison had one major concern regarding the tariff dividend. That’s the potential tax impact.
Some people researching the proposed dividend check: Yale University Budget Labit was intended to take the form of a tax credit, meaning no tax was due. This question will not have a clear answer until legislation on this issue is enacted.
Like Jamison, Brooke Thornell said she did much of her shopping this year at thrift and second-hand stores to save money.
The Jacksonville, Fla., native said she doesn’t think the rebate will materialize, but if it does, she would use it to pay off her debt.
“I’ll probably put it toward student loans or save it,” she said. “That’s good, but I don’t expect anything from this administration.”
“Think more about gifts”
Jamian Medina, 43, of New York City, said he could use the money to soften the blow of recent job losses.
USA TODAY spoke to him as he boarded the Staten Island Ferry heading to Manhattan. At that time, he was wondering what kind of present he could buy.
“I’m thinking more about presents this year,” he said, noting that toys and clothes seem to be more expensive.
Regarding the potential tax dividend, Medina said he plans to save half of it to look for a new job. The remaining half will be used for meals.
In Wisconsin, Thies said he might put the tariff rebate toward savings or use it for a trip with his family.
“Even $2,000 doesn’t go as far as it used to,” she says.
Contributor: Betty Lin-Fisher, America today. Hannah Schroeder, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Alexandria, Florida Mansfield Times Union
