Democratic candidates have pointed to President Donald Trump’s war with Iran as causing gas prices to skyrocket. Historically, rising gas prices have hurt incumbent political parties.
President Trump puts ‘I did it’ sticker on gas pump, could be a call back to Biden
When gas prices hit record highs under the Biden administration, stickers with his photo and the words “I did it” were placed on gas pumps. Now they have Trump’s face.
As $4 a gallon of gas forces Americans to change their spending habits, Democrats are reinventing their potentially impactful 2026 midterm message on the issue.
The average retail price of gasoline has been this high since August 2022, when Republicans focused relentlessly on gas prices, successfully taking back Congress and delaying the rest of former President Joe Biden’s policies.
Democratic challengers in battleground states and swing states are trying to use the same weapon against Republicans, pointing to President Donald Trump’s ongoing war with Iran, which has sent prices soaring by more than $1 a gallon in a matter of weeks.
The issue also helps Democrats position themselves to fight for economic relief.
Experts say rising gas prices are infuriating Americans more than almost any other commodity.
“This is a sign that people can’t do as much as they want,” Patrick de Haan, an analyst at GasBuddy, which monitors fuel prices, told USA TODAY. “That’s why rising gas prices are so painful for Americans. It feels really oppressive in a different way.”
He said global markets determine prices more than who controls Congress in the White House. But President Trump’s footprint has more to do with the recent surge, since the war he started led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20% of the world’s oil shipments and about 20% of the world’s seaborne liquefied natural gas. Moreover, Trump’s attempts to take credit for falling prices early in his term may be linking him to prices in the minds of voters.
“President Trump has been touting low energy prices by saying, ‘I’ll drill, drill baby,’ and now the chickens are coming to roost,” DeHaan added. “If the United States had not taken action to attack Iran, oil prices would not have been as high as they are.”
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the political arm of House Democrats, published a six-second spot on Facebook and Instagram showing the price increase in late March. These short ads target about 44 battlegrounds that the group believes it can flip. This is part of their larger pitch on affordability to voters this fall, which the DCCC describes as President Trump’s failure to reduce the cost of food, health care and other utilities.
The average gallon in Pennsylvania has increased by nearly $1 over the past month, according to AAA Average Fuel Prices. Among Democrats’ targets is Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s district in the southeast corner of the Keystone State, where the average cost of filling has risen to $4.10 a gallon.
Democratic Congressional candidate Bob Harvey said he has seen prices as high as $4.19 a gallon at gas stations in Bucks County, a suburb of Philadelphia. He noted that while Fitzpatrick did not explicitly support or condemn the February airstrike, he voted against Congress’ March 5 war powers resolution to rein in the president’s actions in Iran and supports other parts of Trump’s agenda, including the “One Big and Beautiful” bill.
“Frankly, people are angry,” Harvey said in an interview with USA TODAY. “Things are already rigged in terms of the benefits given to the people at the top, and there are some members of Congress who are just sitting on the sidelines and letting all this happen while Donald Trump runs this economy from the inside out.”
Gasoline prices have been a strong argument in past campaigns, but experts warn these costs tend to fluctuate and prices could fall by November. They also point out that in an era of bipartisanship, it may not matter as much.
Nevertheless, as the 2026 midterm elections approach, the Democratic Party’s case is clear. The Iran war is an expense that the average American family cannot afford.
White House promises ‘prices will plummet’ once Iran war ends
In a prime-time address to the nation on April 1, President Trump reiterated his previous assertion that this was a “short-term” situation and touched on gas prices. He blamed the situation on the Iranian regime’s “outrageous terrorist attacks against commercial oil tankers and neighboring countries” in the Persian Gulf region.
He said that once the conflict ends, the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for the global oil market, will reopen and prices will fall.
“They’re going to want to be able to sell oil, because that’s all they have to try to rebuild,” Trump said. “As supplies resume, gas prices will fall quickly. Stock prices will rise quickly.”
White House officials noted that before the war, when gas prices fell below $3 per gallon for the first time since 2021, families were saving “hundreds of dollars at the pump.” The president will “further strengthen his proven approach” after the military operation concludes, an official told USA TODAY.
During his State of the Union address in February, Trump spoke to members of Congress and boasted that gas prices had fallen below $2.30. He visited Iowa and “saw gas at $1.85 a gallon,” he said.
AAA says it currently costs about $3.42 per gallon in Iowa, up from about $2.63 a month ago.
According to a CNN/SSRS poll released on March 31, a whopping 76% of Americans disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the crisis. That includes 44% of Republicans and 83% of independents who disapprove of the president on gas prices.
Although the Republican Party broadly supported the administration’s military action in Iran, most competitive Republican incumbents significantly avoided addressing rising gasoline prices while defending the war itself.
For example, when the bombing began on February 28, Mr. Fitzpatrick insisted that a nuclear-armed Iran was “not an option” and called Iran “the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism.”
“For decades, the Iranian regime has systematically built a network of terrorism, proxy militias, missile proliferation, and regional coercion designed to destabilize the Middle East, threaten U.S. interests, and openly call for the destruction of sovereign nations,” the Pennsylvania congressman said in a statement.
Fitzpatrick, who has criticized President Trump’s comments on cultural issues, joined other House Republicans in rejecting the War Powers Resolution in March, paving the way for continued conflict in the Middle East. He said little about last month’s gas price hike.
That’s in contrast to last October, when the congressman was on par with President Trump, when regular gasoline was trending below $3 a gallon. The National Republican Congressional Committee said at the time that this was a “direct result” of Republicans putting “American energy first.”
Her Democratic opponent, Harvey, said this highlights Fitzpatrick’s failure to address the district’s current needs or lobby for alternative energy sources that could be helpful in the current situation. He pointed to how Republican incumbents have taken campaign contributions from oil and gas companies and supported President Trump’s “one big, beautiful” bill to eliminate subsidies for electric vehicles.
“(Fitzpatrick) sold the budget over the summer by supporting President Trump’s budget proposal, removing funds that would have been earmarked for those types of programs,” Harvey said.
Asked how Republicans plan to repel this type of attack, NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella said that if Democrats cut oil and gas drilling, as the Biden administration has attempted, energy costs would also rise.
“If they care about lowering prices, they will stop catering to the demands of the far left and start supporting pro-energy policies that provide real relief to working families,” Marinella said.
Energy analysts say oil prices are determined by global supply and global demand, not just domestic production. This is why American consumers currently pay more for gasoline, even though the United States produces more oil than it consumes.
‘I want him to be right’: Republicans hold their breath amid President Trump’s optimism
There is little relief for Republican incumbents who are facing the brunt of voter anger over how much refills will cost.
“I hope he’s right,” Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) said in a March 19 interview with NewsMax when asked if rising gas prices are temporary.
“I want him to take steps to do so,” he added. “That’s why I’m in favor of a short, successful war.”
Mr. Husted is engaged in one of the most important Senate battles this year that could determine who controls the Senate. He is facing former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who has slammed his Republican rival for raising prices by about $1 a gallon at Ohio gas stations last month.
“Ohioans are already struggling to make ends meet and are now paying record prices for gasoline and diesel,” Brown said in a March 31 statement provided to USA TODAY.
John Mark Hansen, a political science professor at the University of Chicago, said price has historically been one of the easiest ways for voters to judge the work of presidents and members of Congress.
“This is especially true for many people because we are a very car-dependent society,” he said. “People have to pay more cash when they go to the gas station, and their credit cards end up being charged more when they fill up.”
Embattled Republicans have already begun looking for other solutions. Congressman Mike Lawler (R-New York) has introduced a bill to expand domestic energy production. On March 20, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp (R) suspended the state’s motor fuel tax for 60 days.
Normally, a sitting president would be fine with members of his own party distancing themselves from the White House, Hansen said. But Trump’s obsession with loyalty could further devastate the Republican Party in the fall, he said.
“In a normal administration, if someone felt the need to distance themselves from the president, the president would understand,” Hansen said. “The president will basically say, ‘We need a Republican Congress, do whatever it takes to get back in office.’ But no president acts like that.”
The University of Virginia Center for Politics has found that since the 1970s, gas prices and presidential approval ratings have been closely linked. The decade began with the 1973 oil embargo by the Arab states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and ended with the Iranian revolution in 1979, which many believe contributed to the end of President Jimmy Carter’s term.
However, the center’s analysis found that in recent years, gasoline prices have had less of an impact on presidential approval ratings than in the past.
But Democrats expect lawmakers in battleground districts to be less isolated.
Gasoline prices in Wisconsin are hovering around $3.77, according to AAA, and Democrats are keenly eyeing Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden, who is considered a race most forecasters are betting on. He described Iran as a “destabilizing force” in the Middle East that needed to be stopped.
Democratic challenger Rebecca Cook said in an interview that voters are far more price conscious about their basic needs than about global conflicts and expect their representatives to look out for them first and foremost.
“The voters in my district were promised never to go to war, and I think this shows that President Trump is breaking that promise and not putting America first,” she said. “Putting ourselves in this conflict with Iran will only make things worse, especially for working-class Americans.”
