The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s fall 2026 forecast paints a mixed picture, with the ongoing El Niño adding uncertainty to the long-term forecast, from cool, wet coasts to warm, dry inland areas.
As temperatures continue to rise in many parts of the country, many people are already wondering what kind of weather autumn will bring. Will cold air arrive earlier? Will drought-stricken areas receive relief? Or will the warmth continue throughout the seasons?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac releases its long-range forecast for the fall of 2026, showing what temperatures and precipitation will be like across the United States.
The almanac, which has been predicting the weather since 1818, predicts mixed conditions this autumn, with some regions expected to be colder and wetter than average, while others could see warmer and drier conditions.
From the Northeast to the Pacific Coast, the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts fall 2026.
What does the Old Farmer’s Almanac predict for fall 2026?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac says, “Will our sweaters be used more this fall? It won’t feel like fall everywhere.”
Forecasts predict a variety of conditions across the country, with some areas likely to experience more rain, while others may remain drier than normal.
The forecast predicts warmer-than-normal weather across parts of the country’s interior from the Northern Plains to the Heartland to the Deep South in September and October, suggesting drought-stricken areas may not see much relief once the season begins. Meanwhile, much of the eastern United States and Pacific Coast are expected to experience cooler-than-normal weather.
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Old Farmer’s Almanac Fall Forecast by Region
- Northeast: Cooler and more humid than average.
- Atlantic Corridor: It will be cooler and drier than average, with low precipitation expected in September and October.
- Appalachians: It will be cooler and drier than normal, with below average precipitation.
- Southeast: Slightly cooler than normal and drier conditions are expected across much of the region.
- Florida: The north is cool and dry. In the south, temperatures are cooler and precipitation is slightly above average.
- Lower lake: September will be cooler, but temperatures will approach normal in October. Precipitation near or slightly below average.
- Ohio Valley: The beginning of the season is cool and drier than average.
- Deep South: September will be cool and dry, followed by a warmer than average October.
- Upper Midwest: September is cool, October is slightly warmer and can be rainy.
- Heartland: It is slightly warmer in the north and cooler in the south, with increased precipitation in the second half of the season.
- High Plains: Warmer and drier than average.
- Mountain area: Cool in the north and warm in the south, with overall precipitation slightly above average.
- Desert Southwest: September was warm, followed by a cool October with below average precipitation.
- Pacific Northwest: Cooler and more humid than average.
- Pacific Southwest: Temperatures are near normal in September, followed by a cool October. Precipitation varies by location.
- Alaska: The north is cool, the south is warm, and overall precipitation is below average.
- Hawaii: It will be cooler than normal, with above-normal precipitation expected in the eastern region.
How accurate is the Old Farmer’s Almanac?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has been producing long-term weather forecasts for more than two centuries using a unique forecasting methodology that combines solar activity, climate patterns, and past weather trends. The publication claims an accuracy of 80%, but some experts claim it’s closer to 50%.
Meteorologists often warn that forecasts made months in advance involve great uncertainty, especially at the local level.
When does fall 2026 start?
The first official day of fall 2026 is Tuesday, September 22nd, the autumnal equinox in the northern hemisphere.
The vernal equinox occurs when the sun passes through the celestial equator, bringing about equal amounts of daylight and darkness around the world. After the vernal equinox, Texas and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere experience shorter days and longer nights until the winter solstice in December.
But for meteorologists, autumn begins much earlier. The fall weather season begins on September 1st and runs through November 30th, in line with the calendar month used to track seasonal weather patterns.
El Niño’s impact on the US is expected in fall 2026
A potentially strong El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean has captured the attention of climate scientists and long-range forecasters who are looking at how this pattern could affect weather around the world.
Forecasters say it’s still too early to tell exactly how the ongoing El Niño will affect the country, but strong past events offer clues.
- Humid South and Southeast: Strong El Niño events often result in above-average precipitation across the southern United States. NOAA found that in eight of the 11 strong El Niño events it analyzed, much of the Southeast experienced wetter-than-average winters.
- More rain and snow is possible in California. California often experiences more rain during El Niño winters, as the southern storm track can become more active. These conditions could increase the chances of atmospheric rivers bringing heavy rain to Southern California and increasing snowfall in the mountains, but scientists stress that every El Niño is different.
- Warmer and drier conditions in parts of the north and west: Strong El Niño events have historically favored warm, dry conditions in the Northwest, Northern Plains, and parts of the upper Midwest. This could lead to prolonged drought in some areas, raising concerns about wildfires if dry conditions persist.
- Impact of hurricane season: El Niño can also affect tropical activity. In the Atlantic Ocean, stronger upper-level winds often disrupt developing storms and reduce hurricane activity. In the eastern Pacific Ocean, El Niño events typically create more favorable conditions for tropical cyclones and hurricanes because they increase ocean temperatures, increase low-level rotation, and reduce wind shear.
- Hawaii wildfire concerns: El Niño’s effects could extend beyond the mainland. Increased summer rainfall can encourage grass growth, but then when conditions dry, that vegetation can become fuel for wildfires.
When does El Niño start?
El Niño does not start on a fixed date. The phenomenon begins when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average and remain elevated for several months, indicating changes in both ocean and atmospheric patterns.
It also doesn’t follow a strict schedule. They tend to appear irregularly every two to seven years, depending on changes in ocean temperatures, wind patterns, and broader climate conditions.
Most El Niño events typically occur between March and June, strengthen from summer to fall, peak from November to January, and dissipate from late winter to spring.
How long will El Niño last?
According to NOAA, El Niño events are typically one-season to one-year events, and can sometimes look like extended cycles rather than multi-year climate stages like La Niña.
In the current outlook, the situation is already in place. This phenomenon is expected to intensify during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-2027, suggesting that the phenomenon may persist from the 2026 development period until early 2027, and then gradually weaken.
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the country as the USA TODAY Network’s Weather Connect reporter and contributes to Texas Connect coverage across the state. Contact her at baddison@usatodayco.com.. Follow her on Facebook here.
