Sunday marks 100 days until the November midterm elections. Democrats, who lead in the polls, remain in an uphill battle against Republican victories in redistricting and regional bias in the Senate.
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As Sunday marks the final 100 days until November 3, the battle to control parliament intensifies. Opinion polls show Democrats in the lead, but the outcome remains in doubt as Republicans made more gains in redistricting battles.
Republicans maintain slim majorities in both chambers, but polls suggest a Democratic victory in November. The Emerson Poll on July 23 revealed that while President Donald Trump’s approval rating reached 39%, the Democratic Party had an 11 percentage point lead in the popular vote, with 53% supporting the Republican Party and 42% supporting the Republican Party.
But other polls show a much closer race. In a Washington Post Ipsos poll also released Thursday, voters said they would be more likely to vote Democratic if the U.S. House of Representatives elections were held today. This was a mere 3 percentage point difference, with 48% of Democrats supporting it and 45% of Republicans supporting it. This is a slightly narrower gap than when the same poll was conducted in April, when 49% of voters supported Democrats and 44% chose Republicans.
The president’s support in the Republican primary remains strong, most recently with a landslide victory in Arizona on Tuesday. Congressional candidates endorsed by President Trump have won every primary election so far, according to Ballotpedia data reviewed by USA TODAY, and the coming weeks will continue to test the president’s power as more states hold primaries.
Mr. Trump’s success in overthrowing incumbents was maximized when his Republican opponent won the nomination to his current seat, defeating Sen. John Cornyn (Texas), Sen. Bill Cassidy (Louisiana), and Rep. Thomas Massie (Kentucky).
The economic burden of the Iran war remains a burden for Republicans, who still hold power in the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives. On July 21, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) broke with the president and called for an end to military action.
James Lindsay, a senior fellow on U.S. foreign affairs at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former director of the National Security Council, said in April that “the longer we go on with an unpopular war with Iran, the more political pressure there will be on Republican candidates for Congress.”
Redistricting benefits Republicans
Despite Democrats’ lead in the polls, Republicans have an inherent advantage due to regional bias in the Senate and recent redistricting victories across the country. Republicans currently control 218 seats in the House, while Democrats have 212, one independent and four vacancies. New York Times political analyst Nate Cohn estimated that Democrats would need to win the national popular vote by about 3.1 percentage points to narrowly flip the House.
Eight states – Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee and Texas – have installed new congressional maps that could benefit Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. According to Ballotpedia in June, Republicans could pick up 10 more seats in the House. Another forecast from the Center for Politics estimates Republicans will gain an additional five to nine seat advantage.
“While this is clearly an improvement for Republicans, the House map is not red enough to protect Republicans from what currently appears to be a bad political environment,” national political analyst Kyle Kondik wrote at the University of Virginia Center for Politics in June.
Only two states, Utah and California, succeeded in approving new maps that could give Democrats additional seats. In June, Cook Political Report rated 18 races (14 of which involve seats currently held by Republicans) as runoff elections.
According to the Center for Politics, these 10 gerrymandered states account for 42% of the seats in Congress.
Senate seats to watch
Both parties hope to pick up more seats in the Senate, where Republicans hold a majority of 53 seats, ahead of Democrats’ 45 seats and two independents who tend to caucus with the minority. Here are some notable races where both sides are pouring resources.
- Maine: Incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who has served since 1997, will face Democrat Troy Jackson. On Saturday, the Maine Democratic Party voted to nominate Jackson to replace Graham Platner. Mr. Platner suspended his campaign after allegations of sexual assault surfaced, which he denies.
- North Carolina: Democrats want to flip the seat currently held by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. A June Catawba College/YouGov poll showed former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper holding a 14-point lead over former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley.
- Michigan: On the Republican side, former Congressman Mike Rodger is the only candidate. On Aug. 4, Michigan Democrats will vote to nominate either Detroit-based public health official Abdul El-Sayed or Rep. Haley Stevens, a former Obama administration official. Recent polls show Stevens in the lead.
- Alaska: Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, supported by President Trump, is challenging former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, who led in a spring poll by Alaska Survey Research. The top four candidates in the nonpartisan primary voting on Aug. 18 will advance to the general election in November using a ranked-choice voting system. The primary ballot also includes a second man named Dan Sullivan and 14 other Alaskans.
- Georgia: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has a 9-point lead over his Republican challenger, Rep. Mike Collins, according to a July 23 AARP poll. Mr. Trump has defended Mr. Collins, as Mr. Ossoff is known as a fierce critic of the president. Just on Wednesday, July 22nd, at a rally in Georgia supporting Collins, President Trump likened Ossoff to “Pinky Herman” and referred to the senator as a “Democrat community.”
