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- Arizona’s congressional primaries in mid-July are critical to Republicans gaining a slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
- Donald Trump’s support is being tested in key races, including former NFL kicker Jay Feely in the 1st District.
- In the 5th Congressional District, President Trump-backed candidate Marc Lamb is facing allegations of personal misconduct.
- A progressive newcomer is challenging incumbent Democratic incumbent Greg Stanton in the 4th Congressional District.
Arizona’s congressional primary will determine whether Republicans can maintain their slim advantage in the U.S. House of Representatives in November and could test the strength of President Donald Trump’s support.
Three races will be in the spotlight on July 21 in this purple state, which narrowly chose former President Joe Biden in 2020 but flipped to President Trump in 2024.
In the 1st District, Republican and former NFL player Jay Feely is aiming to use President Trump’s support to replace retiring Republican congressman and Arizona gubernatorial candidate David Schweikert.
Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, another President Trump endorser, is hopeful he can overcome allegations of sexting and sharing racist and homophobic texts to defeat Republican challenger Daniel Keenan in the conservative-leaning 5th Congressional District.
And in the 4th Congressional District, the Democratic contest pits newcomer Kai Newkirk, a progressive, against incumbent Rep. Greg Stanton, an established centrist.
Republicans hold six of the state’s nine U.S. House seats. Overall, Republicans hold a slim majority in the House with 218 seats, including Republicans and one independent serving as a Republican, while Democrats hold 212 seats. There are currently 4 seats available.
“We can’t ignore Arizona because in the big picture, Republicans have a slim advantage in the House and every seat matters,” Kyle Kondik, editor-in-chief of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan newsletter at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told USA TODAY ahead of the July 21 primary.
Can Mr. Feeley, a Trump supporter, begin his path to victory in the primary?
In the critical 1st District, former NFL Pro Bowl kicker Jay Feeley is trying to use his name recognition and Trump’s support to defeat former state Rep. Joe Czaplik and businessman John Trobaugh.
Three candidates are vying for a wealthy Congressional seat based in metropolitan Phoenix to replace retiring Republican congressman and current Arizona gubernatorial candidate David Schweikert.
There are no major policy differences between the three candidates, as they support President Trump’s policies on top issues such as immigration, economic policy and the war with Iran. But the race has been mired in controversy over its use of artificial intelligence, which has divided the district’s staunch Republican base.
Feeley supports the technology, arguing that AI data centers can benefit local communities and highlighting its importance to national security. Chaplyk was even more skeptical, saying he would oppose data centers in districts that voters don’t want. Trobaugh, a former CEO of a cybersecurity company, emphasized that his experience will better position Arizona when it comes to AI and other technology issues.
But Tom Reilly, a professor and co-director of Arizona State University’s Center for Independent and Sustainable Democracy, said winning Trump’s support could give Mr. Feeley an advantage. Mr. Feeley originally ran for Congress in the 5th District, but changed his district after President Trump’s support made Mr. Lamb the clear front-runner.
“Given that Trump support has basically worked in other places, I don’t understand why it wouldn’t work here this time,” Riley said of Feeley’s chances of winning the 1st District vacant seat.
Kondik agrees. “I would be surprised if Feely lost,” he said.
However, the area could be in turmoil in November. Challengers in the Democratic primary include former state representative Amish Shah and former television news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, who has been endorsed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).
The two faced off in the 2024 primary, with Shah defeating Galan Woods by about 1,700 votes. Although Schar ultimately lost to Schweikert, he could be the favorite to win this year as well.
“Overall, this district is a very strong target for Democrats,” Kondik said. “Anything can happen.”
President Trump’s support will be tested in the 5th District primary
One of the key questions in Arizona’s congressional primary is whether former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, backed by President Trump, can overcome allegations of threats, sexting and sharing racist and homophobic texts to defeat Republican challenger Daniel Keenan in the conservative-leaning 5th District.
The primary winner will replace Republican Rep. Andy Biggs, who is vacating his seat to run for Arizona governor.
Mr. Lamb had little to refute after a months-long investigation by the Arizona Republic, a member of the USA TODAY network, surfaced allegations of sexting, blackmail, intimidation, sharing nude photos, sending racist messages and recently purchasing a multimillion-dollar ranch property in Tennessee.
The allegations raised eyebrows in a district that has been represented by members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints for decades. This has led Lamb’s weak opponent, construction executive Daniel Keenan, to spend his own money on ads that squarely challenge voters’ suspicions. Mr. Keenan played Mr. Lamb’s scandal-free alternative and emphasized that he was in step with Mr. Trump.
A charismatic personality who has regularly spoken at President Trump’s rallies over the years, Lamb has developed an image as “America’s Marshal” through frequent appearances on cable news and reality shows, amassing a large following online in the process.
“Keenan might make it, you never know,” Riley said. “But Mr. Lamb, if you have President Trump’s endorsement, that might be enough to help him win the primary.”
Progressive candidate aims for Mamdani-style upset
Another race worth watching is whether four-term Democratic incumbent Rep. Greg Stanton will be swayed by Kai Newkirk, a political newcomer and self-proclaimed democratic socialist community organizer in the 4th Congressional District.
He could rise to the national spotlight even though Newkirk had been drawing national attention among progressives who believed he had a chance to win amid a growing national anti-establishment wave of Democratic Socialist candidates in New York and Colorado.
Mr. Newkirk has struggled to gain support from within the district, including from left-wing activist groups who initially embraced his vision.
The series of loss of support has also cast a shadow on Mr. Newkirk’s once-promising campaign, as he had hoped to focus his campaign on the Israel referendum, resistance to Mr. Trump and other issues that have derailed victories for left-wing candidates.
The local chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America wrote in its 2026 candidate guide that “a late entry into the race, significantly less fundraising than Stanton, and no labor support put Newkirk at a strategic disadvantage and put the district at risk of losing the seat to fascist thugs in the fall.”
The DSA concluded: “After long and careful consideration, the committee will not make a recommendation for this race.”
Stanton is also a staunch moderate who holds a leadership role in the party’s centrist New Democratic Party bloc in the U.S. House of Representatives. Stanton, a former Phoenix mayor, has been re-elected to Congress every two years since 2018.
